Skip to comments.5 Reasons Amnesty Would Be Political Suicide For The Republican Party
Posted on 11/13/2012 7:46:38 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Of all the misguided, corrupt and deranged ideas floating around inside the D.C. bubble, perhaps the single worst one is giving illegal aliens amnesty as part of some sort of attempt to capture the Hispanic vote. If the GOP were to pursue a policy that primarily benefits corrupt business owners, the government of Mexico, and Democrats at the expense of our country and our own base, we'd truly deserve the "Stupid Party" moniker that has so often been hung around our neck. This policy wouldn't be a calculated risk or even a longshot; it would be a game of Russian Roulette with a bullet in every chamber.
1) We'd be bringing in a huge influx of Democratic voters. Roughly 70% of Hispanic Americans already vote for the Democrats and you have to expect that the Democrats would capture an even larger percentage of illegal aliens. Keep in mind that for the most part, illegals are poorly educated, have minimal English skills, come from socialistic countries and make a living here doing low end, poorly paid manual labor. The GOP would be lucky to capture 20% of that block of voters.
Now, let's do a little rough math. We don't know exactly how many illegal aliens are in the country, but 10 million seems like a nice conservative estimate. If the Democrats did actually capture 80% of those voters, it would lead to a net gain of 6 million potential new votes for the Democrats. Meanwhile, if only 407,000 votes had flipped from Obama to Romney in Florida (73,858), Ohio (103,481), Virginia (115,910) and Colorado (113,099), Mitt would have won and Chris Matthews would still be on a depression-related leave of absence. In other words, this is like coming up just short in a 100 yard dash and deciding to fix the problem by starting 25 yards farther back in the next race.
2) There would be a tremendous backlash from Republican voters. The GOP pushed for amnesty in George W. Bush's second term and it was hit with a political buzzsaw the size of the Hoover Dam. What makes anyone think it would be any different this time?
Personally, I'm willing to pledge my support to ANY viable primary challenger who takes on a Republican in Congress who votes for an amnesty bill. Put another way, even if it were Jim DeMint, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul or Paul Ryan, if you're for amnesty and have someone who can conceivably beat you in a primary, I'm for your opponent. There's no other choice because this policy is like playing a game of chicken with an oncoming train; so stopping amnesty is priority one and if it can't be done, then we should at least send as many of the politicians responsible to the political graveyard as possible.
3) It would be terrible policy for the country. At a time when the unemployment rate is sky high and the country is running a trillion dollar deficit, how much sense does it make to bring in 10 million new citizens who'll be a huge net drain on the country? We're not talking about bringing in ten million engineers, scientists, computer programmers and entrepreneurs to expand the tax base. To the contrary, we're talking about offering the gift of American citizenship to 10 million, largely uneducated manual laborers with minimal English skills, most of whom would draw tens, if not hundreds of thousands of dollars more in government benefits than they pay out over the course of their lifetimes. You MIGHT be able to make a case that we need a guest worker program to handle some of these low skill jobs, although even that would be difficult when so many Americans are out of work, but it's impossible to make any sort of coherent argument that 10 million brand spanking new poor Americans are going to do anything other than hurt the country at a time when we're already running a trillion dollar plus deficit every year.
4) Amnesty distracts us from the voter outreach we really need to be doing. As a party, the GOP does almost no Hispanic outreach. Just to give you an idea of how bad it is, in 2009 I found out that the Democrats had 20 senators scheduled to attend the Hispanic Chamber of Commerces 19th Annual Legislative Conference while the Republicans had none. After raising holy hell about that on Right Wing News, senators like Orrin Hatch and Lamar Alexander suddenly agreed to be on the roster. Conservatives shouldn't need to publicly shame the Republican Party into showing up at the Hispanic Chamber of Commerce.
Additionally, while I don't think the Republican National Committee could have possibly made a better selection for its first national Director of Hispanic Outreach than my friend Bettina Inclan, why did we have to wait until the last election cycle for it to happen? It's not as if we just realized that we had a problem with Hispanic voters in 2011.
Although I'm constantly beating the drum to get more donors to help out the conservative new media, our #1 financial priority as a party should be minority outreach. We need our own National Council of La Raza and our own MEChA. We need more Hispanic blogs, more Hispanic talk radio and Hispanic conservatives who can take our message to places where it isn't getting a fair hearing today. We need Hispanic conservatives calling out the Democrats for their disgusting, patronizing and racist comments about Hispanics and we need to have their voices amplified by the big websites and talk radio hosts out there.
Now, will this take money, time and effort? Yes. Will everybody like this kind of change? No. Will it fix everything in one or two election cycles? No. But, is this exactly the kind of hard work we need to start doing year in and year out to level the playing field with Hispanic Americans? Yes, it is. The more time we spend focusing on a gimmicky, sure-to-fail Hail Mary like amnesty, the less time we'll spend making the changes that can bring Hispanic Americans home to where they belong, in the conservative movement.
5) Why does anyone think amnesty would allow the GOP to capture the current Hispanic vote? There is absolutely no reason whatsoever to assume that the GOP would be able to capture the Hispanic vote if we pass an amnesty. None. Zero. Zilch. If that's all it takes, well, keep in mind that Reagan signed on to a "one time" comprehensive illegal immigration plan while he was in office. So, if it's all about amnesty, why aren't Hispanics already voting Republican? By that same logic, why aren't all black Americans voting for the Republican Party today since, percentage wise, more Republicans voted for the 1964 Civil Rights Act than Democrats?
Here's a hint: The Democrats are beating us with Hispanics by around 70/30, blacks 90/10, Jews 70/30, Muslims 80/20 and Asians 75/25. They're not doing that by signing on to major legislation; they're doing it with identity politics. Incidentally, nothing would change if we signed on to an amnesty because Republicans will never be able to hand out more free goodies than the Democrats. If we offer a legal status short of citizenship, the Democrats will offer citizenship and say we hate Hispanics because we won't do it. If we offer citizenship in 10 years, they'll offer it in five and say we're dragging our feet because we hate Hispanics. If we offered amnesty for every illegal tomorrow, Democrats would ask for a new amnesty every year for anyone who sneaks across the border and they'd say that we hate Hispanics if we disagree. Then, over the long haul, the percentages for Hispanic voters wouldn't change much at all because as we've seen, the tactics the Democrats are using have been proven to work again and again. The Democrats understand that, so why don't we get it? If you're actually naive enough to believe that amnesty will bring Hispanics over to the GOP, then ask yourself a simple question: Do you really think the Democrats would strongly support a policy thats going to cost them millions of votes?
Since most were motivated by money -earned or otherwise- to come here in the first place, it's logical they'd flock to whoever is promising them easier access to it. I doubt the GOP will be adding 'more free stuff' to the plank anytime soon.
Illegal Alien Amnesty is Anti-American Bigotry
We do not need Illegals. We have enough Americans out of work...and we do not have the revenue to keep Illegals, and their families, on their welfare rolls
And, it is political suicide for the GOP to bring in voters for the Democrats.
100% Deportation is not an extreme view. it is the proper solution to the Illegal Alien problem
And, Newt Gingrich’s “Guest Worker” program is just Amnesty rapped up in a different package. Whether it is Guest Worker Amnesty, or DREAM ACT Amnesty...it is still Amnesty if you do not 100% Deport all Illegals
Our National Security begins at the border. We fail in all security when we compromise our borders
It's called 'future SCOTUS fodder'. Just like DOMA is doomed, so will be any attempt at a 'separate but equal' fix to Illegals.
I live in an area with tons of Latino immigrants and children of immigrants, both legal and illegal. And your post is absolutely correct. I have never met even ONE conservative Latino immigrant or child of immigrant. They are extremely liberal, they don’t like whites, they feel entitled to whatever they want, they hate “rich people,” they think we stole land from them, etc. They are as far from conservatives as you can get. They will never, ever, ever vote for us.
I think it’s ironic that the two men that the Mexican people hold above all of their other countrymen are Villa and Zapata.Men who stood and fought for Mexico.They didn’t sneak off to some other country like cowards.Zapata,although painted as a Marxist was murdered because he wanted a Mexican version of our second amendment.If ever there was a country to use as an example of gun control allowing a country to be run by despots It would have to be Mexico.
While we all enjoy the anecdotal story of the proud self made successful immigrant, that quality is found in far too few of the overall pool.
The answer is SB1070 (and a serious roll-back on legal immigration). It works, and it's one of the major reasons AZ is bouncing back.
” Absolute NONSENSE! Biggest political myth of the past 30 years. “Hispanic values” = WELFARE STATE. Period. Hispanic immigrants receive welfare 4 times as often as other immigrants. “
F A C T
For the most part, the GOP didn't put up Reagan. He was recruited by Republican rogues, both to be California governor and the president.
If we want another Reagan, he or she will have to be recruited. Don't count on the Potomac GOP to do it.
Facts are stubborn things. The idea of the social issues Hispanic voter is also a mirage. A majority of Hispanics now support gay marriage, a Pew Research Center poll from last month found. The Hispanic out-of-wedlock birth rate is 53 percent, about twice that of whites.
Hispanics have the highest school drop out rate of any group. Educational attainment among Hispanics remains very low. Just 10% of foreign-born and 13.5% of native Latinos have finished college, placing the group's completion rate at about a third of the national average.
Hispanics, immigrant and native, are major users of welfare programs.
Hispanics are a natural constituency for Democrats. They will, along with blacks, become part of the permanent underclass in this society. They will vote Democrat.
If one goes with the theory that the main purpose of the Beltway GOP is to keep the Democrats in power and vastly expand the federal government, then it makes sense. (Look at what they did in the time between Hoover and Reagan.)
If you’re actually naive enough to believe that amnesty will bring Hispanics over to the GOP, then ask yourself a simple question: Do you really think the Democrats would strongly support a policy thats going to cost them millions of votes?
Brilliant in its logical simplicity
You are completely wrong. It is absolutely wishful thinking to think that within 100 years we could ever get more than 35% of the Hispanic vote.
I suggest you read Heather McDonald's piece of the utter futility of amnesty.
I was at a house party last Saturday night and had a conversation with a Hispanic male who looked 35-40 who has been working for Obama for America... He said he was deported but snuck back in and goes under many identities since coming back to the US. Even though he has been working for Obama he seemed like a nice guy who isn’t loyal to Obama. My conversation started when I overheard him talk to a Russian guy who has been in the US for the last 6 years. The two were talking about how a famous lady that makes predictions that had made a prediction that the last president of the US would be black. They both were laughing and agreeing with it... Oh, and the guy is convinced that the country is “gone”. I would have talked to him more one on one and had planned on it but he left the party by the time I started looking for him again.
Election returns year after year show that this statement is a myth.
I lived in California from 1964 to late 2004.
The number of illegal intruders in the 60’s and 70’s was pegged at 20 million.
I don’t think that number has gone down, except in Obama press releases. In the last 4 years, Obama’s number of illegals has gone from 15 to 14 to 13 to 10 million. IF they were dying off at that rate, we would know about it.
They have continued to grow in number, with a wide open birder & lack of the Fed government to stop their intrusion.
Then they have bred like rabbits while here. The 14th Amendment is being improperly used with those births.
I believe there are between 50 and 60 MILLION illegals here in the USA.
Why would the Republicans want a sudden 5 to 1 ratio of new persons here legally—demanding jobs—more free education—more benefits— you name it.
Obama will give them the right to vote immediately, also. They don’t speak English—I won’t learn Spanish to deal with them, either. I will walk away.
I’d vote for a Democrat over a pro-amnesty Republican. No one who advocates amnesty is going to get my vote.
I’ll vote for the person who looks out for America - not for the party!
What do you think happens to a nation with millions of citizens who have no voting power to control their own lives?
Because that is what is already happening, between voter fraud, liberal judges, and unelected bureaucrats.
The Left owns identity politics.
The GOP can’t compete with the Left on gimmes and giveaways. Democrats will always do the free stuff better than Republicans do.
Amnesty would be a disaster for the Republican Party and the country. The party in effect would be agreeing to enfranchise millions of new Democratic voters.
Its the stupidest idea I ever heard of. Incidentally, part of the reason Mittens lost last week was cuz he embraced Amnesty full-bore.
That should tell people its a political loser for Republicans. If they are so foolish as to join the Democrats on this - the conservative movement will die in this country.