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5 Reasons Amnesty Would Be Political Suicide For The Republican Party
Townhall ^ | 11/13/2012 | John Hawkins

Posted on 11/13/2012 7:46:38 AM PST by SeekAndFind

Of all the misguided, corrupt and deranged ideas floating around inside the D.C. bubble, perhaps the single worst one is giving illegal aliens amnesty as part of some sort of attempt to capture the Hispanic vote. If the GOP were to pursue a policy that primarily benefits corrupt business owners, the government of Mexico, and Democrats at the expense of our country and our own base, we'd truly deserve the "Stupid Party" moniker that has so often been hung around our neck. This policy wouldn't be a calculated risk or even a longshot; it would be a game of Russian Roulette with a bullet in every chamber.

1) We'd be bringing in a huge influx of Democratic voters. Roughly 70% of Hispanic Americans already vote for the Democrats and you have to expect that the Democrats would capture an even larger percentage of illegal aliens. Keep in mind that for the most part, illegals are poorly educated, have minimal English skills, come from socialistic countries and make a living here doing low end, poorly paid manual labor. The GOP would be lucky to capture 20% of that block of voters.

Now, let's do a little rough math. We don't know exactly how many illegal aliens are in the country, but 10 million seems like a nice conservative estimate. If the Democrats did actually capture 80% of those voters, it would lead to a net gain of 6 million potential new votes for the Democrats. Meanwhile, if only 407,000 votes had flipped from Obama to Romney in Florida (73,858), Ohio (103,481), Virginia (115,910) and Colorado (113,099), Mitt would have won and Chris Matthews would still be on a depression-related leave of absence. In other words, this is like coming up just short in a 100 yard dash and deciding to “fix” the problem by starting 25 yards farther back in the next race.

2) There would be a tremendous backlash from Republican voters. The GOP pushed for amnesty in George W. Bush's second term and it was hit with a political buzzsaw the size of the Hoover Dam. What makes anyone think it would be any different this time?

Personally, I'm willing to pledge my support to ANY viable primary challenger who takes on a Republican in Congress who votes for an amnesty bill. Put another way, even if it were Jim DeMint, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul or Paul Ryan, if you're for amnesty and have someone who can conceivably beat you in a primary, I'm for your opponent. There's no other choice because this policy is like playing a game of chicken with an oncoming train; so stopping amnesty is priority one and if it can't be done, then we should at least send as many of the politicians responsible to the political graveyard as possible.

3) It would be terrible policy for the country. At a time when the unemployment rate is sky high and the country is running a trillion dollar deficit, how much sense does it make to bring in 10 million new citizens who'll be a huge net drain on the country? We're not talking about bringing in ten million engineers, scientists, computer programmers and entrepreneurs to expand the tax base. To the contrary, we're talking about offering the gift of American citizenship to 10 million, largely uneducated manual laborers with minimal English skills, most of whom would draw tens, if not hundreds of thousands of dollars more in government benefits than they pay out over the course of their lifetimes. You MIGHT be able to make a case that we need a guest worker program to handle some of these low skill jobs, although even that would be difficult when so many Americans are out of work, but it's impossible to make any sort of coherent argument that 10 million brand spanking new poor Americans are going to do anything other than hurt the country at a time when we're already running a trillion dollar plus deficit every year.

4) Amnesty distracts us from the voter outreach we really need to be doing. As a party, the GOP does almost no Hispanic outreach. Just to give you an idea of how bad it is, in 2009 I found out that the Democrats had 20 senators scheduled to attend the Hispanic Chamber of Commerce’s 19th Annual Legislative Conference while the Republicans had none. After raising holy hell about that on Right Wing News, senators like Orrin Hatch and Lamar Alexander suddenly agreed to be on the roster. Conservatives shouldn't need to publicly shame the Republican Party into showing up at the Hispanic Chamber of Commerce.

Additionally, while I don't think the Republican National Committee could have possibly made a better selection for its first national Director of Hispanic Outreach than my friend Bettina Inclan, why did we have to wait until the last election cycle for it to happen? It's not as if we just realized that we had a problem with Hispanic voters in 2011.

Although I'm constantly beating the drum to get more donors to help out the conservative new media, our #1 financial priority as a party should be minority outreach. We need our own National Council of La Raza and our own MEChA. We need more Hispanic blogs, more Hispanic talk radio and Hispanic conservatives who can take our message to places where it isn't getting a fair hearing today. We need Hispanic conservatives calling out the Democrats for their disgusting, patronizing and racist comments about Hispanics and we need to have their voices amplified by the big websites and talk radio hosts out there.

Now, will this take money, time and effort? Yes. Will everybody like this kind of change? No. Will it fix everything in one or two election cycles? No. But, is this exactly the kind of hard work we need to start doing year in and year out to level the playing field with Hispanic Americans? Yes, it is. The more time we spend focusing on a gimmicky, sure-to-fail Hail Mary like amnesty, the less time we'll spend making the changes that can bring Hispanic Americans home to where they belong, in the conservative movement.

5) Why does anyone think amnesty would allow the GOP to capture the current Hispanic vote? There is absolutely no reason whatsoever to assume that the GOP would be able to capture the Hispanic vote if we pass an amnesty. None. Zero. Zilch. If that's all it takes, well, keep in mind that Reagan signed on to a "one time" comprehensive illegal immigration plan while he was in office. So, if it's all about amnesty, why aren't Hispanics already voting Republican? By that same logic, why aren't all black Americans voting for the Republican Party today since, percentage wise, more Republicans voted for the 1964 Civil Rights Act than Democrats?

Here's a hint: The Democrats are beating us with Hispanics by around 70/30, blacks 90/10, Jews 70/30, Muslims 80/20 and Asians 75/25. They're not doing that by signing on to major legislation; they're doing it with identity politics. Incidentally, nothing would change if we signed on to an amnesty because Republicans will never be able to hand out more free goodies than the Democrats. If we offer a legal status short of citizenship, the Democrats will offer citizenship and say we hate Hispanics because we won't do it. If we offer citizenship in 10 years, they'll offer it in five and say we're dragging our feet because we hate Hispanics. If we offered amnesty for every illegal tomorrow, Democrats would ask for a new amnesty every year for anyone who sneaks across the border and they'd say that we hate Hispanics if we disagree. Then, over the long haul, the percentages for Hispanic voters wouldn't change much at all because as we've seen, the tactics the Democrats are using have been proven to work again and again. The Democrats understand that, so why don't we get it? If you're actually naive enough to believe that amnesty will bring Hispanics over to the GOP, then ask yourself a simple question: Do you really think the Democrats would strongly support a policy that’s going to cost them millions of votes?

TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 112th; 113th; amnesty; comprehensive; crimaliens; hispanicvote; illegal; immigration; openborders; scottishlaw; taxandspend
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To: SeekAndFind

They are all poor and will be associated with wanting to elect the santa clause party.

41 posted on 11/13/2012 11:10:12 AM PST by A CA Guy ( God Bless America, God bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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To: mosesdapoet; moehoward; stephenjohnbanker; SeekAndFind; goldstategop; kabar; montag813; ...
Romney garnered thirteen percent less among self-identified non-college graduates who were Hispanic than college graduates in this election.

More than half of the people who'll be given amnesty don't have a high school diploma-let alone a bachelor's degree.

Makes perfect political sense, doesn't it?

The Stupid Party

42 posted on 11/13/2012 11:13:09 AM PST by OddLane
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To: OddLane

Thanks for the link.

43 posted on 11/13/2012 11:25:19 AM PST by stephenjohnbanker ((God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.))
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To: nevergore

I grew up in southern California and heard Spanish spoken everywhere. One of my dearest friends was born in Mexico and naturalized as a U.S.citizen. She was extraordinary in that she did not resent gringoes.

You are correct when you say that the Hispanic vote isn’t monolithic. But the illegal alien numbers are very large now, as is the numbers of Marxist activists pushing the issue of amnesty.

I stand with the rule of law. This isn’t about race or ethnicity. Without it, we will be a totally lawless land. We’re already trending that direction, and quickly.

44 posted on 11/13/2012 11:28:45 AM PST by SatinDoll (NATURAL BORN CITZEN: BORN IN THE USA OF CITIZEN PARENTS.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Before amnesty, illegals were easy to spot, literally from a block away, amnesty made that impossible because illegals and those who still appeared as illegal but were under amnesty looked the same.

Younger freepers or those not from border states probably won’t understand that.

45 posted on 11/13/2012 11:46:06 AM PST by ansel12 (Todd Akin was NOT the tea party candidate, Sarah Steelman was, Brunner had tea party support also.)
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To: nevergore

“The author is full of BS.”

It’s you, not the author, that has the excrement problem.

46 posted on 11/13/2012 11:50:06 AM PST by Pelham (America, 1775-2012)
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To: SeekAndFind
5 Reasons Amnesty Would Be Political Suicide For The Republican Party

5 Reasons??!!??

I can think of 30,000,000 reasons.
How many Conservatives are there who believe in the Constitution and the rule of law?

Repeal immigration laws or enforce them.
It's not rocket science.

47 posted on 11/13/2012 11:58:09 AM PST by publius911 (Formerly Publius 6961, formerly jennsdad)
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To: Theodore R.; sand88; Cheerio; kabar

And so does the myth that a Republican can win a general election....Each year the number goes down...1.8M this year...

The reason that the Republicans are not garnering any wins is because we have not proferred a true conservative candidate since Reagan....

In the absence of leadership and clearly defined values, people will vote for who gives them the most....

When you clearly articulate conservative values and hope for the future, for yourself and your childrens, people will vote for you.....That’s all demographics.....

If you do not believe that basic tenent, then you might as go register as a Democrat right now and get what you can get from the gubermint.....

48 posted on 11/13/2012 12:03:55 PM PST by nevergore ("It could be that the purpose of my life is simply to serve as a warning to others.")
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To: donna; Wonder Warthog

It would take an activist judge 10 minutes to declare Warthog’s idea a violation of the Constitution. It wouldn’t matter if it wasn’t, it would get scrapped like Prop 187 was in California.

And before the propaganda crowd shows up with their usual misinformation, Judge Pfaelzer’s one-woman scrapping of Prop 187 was never reviewed by an Appeals Court. She colluded with Gov Gray Davis to have her decision to overturn the vote of 60% of the California voters be accepted without appeal, and the worthless RINO Arnold went along with that foul decision.

49 posted on 11/13/2012 12:05:04 PM PST by Pelham (America, 1775-2012)
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To: nevergore
Reagan (the greatest conservative president ever!) had an amnesty program.
He unfortunately trusted Congress that they would couple it with border control, and got screwed...

So we should try it again?

Never again.
Tax increases now?
Serious, significant spending reductions NOW.

If they both don't apply simultaneously, it's not a compromise. It's capitulation. Compromises MUST track.

Otherwise I'm not even discussing it.

50 posted on 11/13/2012 12:08:02 PM PST by publius911 (Formerly Publius 6961, formerly jennsdad)
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To: stephenjohnbanker

No problem.

51 posted on 11/13/2012 12:10:10 PM PST by OddLane
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To: publius911

NEVER, NEVER trust the promise of a Demoncrat or RINO.....

52 posted on 11/13/2012 12:17:17 PM PST by nevergore ("It could be that the purpose of my life is simply to serve as a warning to others.")
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To: Pelham
The judiciary is a huge problem.

Has been since Plyler vs. Doe was decided.

Blackmun and Brennan did more damage to this country than almost anyone else in the past four decades.

53 posted on 11/13/2012 12:23:30 PM PST by OddLane
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To: SeekAndFind

How is the GOP and U.S. conservatism not finished, after all of these pro-leftist issues pass?

54 posted on 11/13/2012 12:28:30 PM PST by johnthebaptistmoore (The world continues to be stuck in a "all leftist, all of the time" funk. BUNK THE FUNK!)
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To: OddLane

Add to which the majority of college grads these days have been firmly indoctrinated with either the white guilt, or the it’s whitey’s fault, mantra, depending....

55 posted on 11/13/2012 12:59:26 PM PST by moehoward
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To: nevergore

Problem is, we have people like you who can’t tell the difference between Conservative values and Tribal values.

Yes, the invading barbarians may be very careful with their resources, but they’re more than willing to grab everything they can from their victims. Same thing with women; they might take care their own, but the outsider’s women are just there for taking...

Some illegal aliens may have conservative values; most of them are tribal and consider outsiders like you and me to be potential victims.

56 posted on 11/13/2012 1:07:10 PM PST by Little Ray (I have VOTED AGAINST Obama in the General.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Amnesty for illegals(most of whom are Latinos and Mexicans who overwhelmingly vote for the most extremist left wing candidates) is the dumbest idea I ever heard of..unless you are a far left Democratic Party fanatic. It's against the interest of most Americans, even moderate Democrats.
57 posted on 11/13/2012 1:15:32 PM PST by SmokingJoe
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To: SmokingJoe

Looks hopeless to me. We cannot help ourselves with pushing amnesty. Even the modest effort Arizona made for protection was struck down by the SC (we should have known right then Roberts was going to stab us in the back). We cannot help ourselves giving more candy. These people will eventually turn on each other but we will be long gone…Unless a few states really do sussed, but even at that most of us are “hooked” because if Social Security etc. so it looks dim indeed.

58 posted on 11/13/2012 2:02:24 PM PST by gibsonguy
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To: donna
"LOL, do you promise, no vote? Sort of a slave labor force?"

Nothing "slave labor" about it. They can always leave. Slave labor doesn't have that choice.

"What do you think happens to a nation with millions of permanent foreigners who have no voting power to control their own lives?"

They have complete control over their own lives.....just nobody else's. Your comment is totally lacking in logic.

59 posted on 11/13/2012 3:16:47 PM PST by Wonder Warthog
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To: moehoward
"It's called 'future SCOTUS fodder'. Just like DOMA is doomed, so will be any attempt at a 'separate but equal' fix to Illegals."

Sorry, not buying it.

60 posted on 11/13/2012 3:19:00 PM PST by Wonder Warthog
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