Too much STUFF chasing too few buyers.
Any sign of success is stamped out by socialists and government. Remember how Ireland had a boom? They sure knew how to kill that.
In fact China has a chance. They may start their domestic war on poverty and reconfigure for a home market. Thus, it may require a sighnificant change to political system and will also lead to growing a labor cost.
If i were China I could try. In any way modern China looks a lot like 1930s Japan to me. We have to watch out!
The assumption in the OP is that everything will remain the same. At least here in India, even if reforms are off the rails, they can be put back on. It it getting more likely that there will be a pretty significant upheaval in the gov here in 2014, and there is always the chance that pressures on the current administration could push them to give the needed reforms a second look. India is the least sclerotic of the four/five, and has the most fluid government. To make assumptions of that magnitude even five or six years out about their growth is kind of foolish.