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Advice to the GOP: Fold [The Case For Letting Obamugabe Own It All]
Weekly Standard ^ | 11/16/12 | Jeffrey Anderson

Posted on 11/16/2012 1:28:01 PM PST by SoFloFreeper

First off, it’s not a “fiscal cliff.” What we’re slated to hit as of New Year’s Day, as the Wall Street Journal notes, is a tax cliff. Our fiscal cliff, which drops off into a far deeper canyon, is what looms because of our $16,000,000,000,000 debt and the runaway entitlement spending that fuels it — Medicare, Medicaid, (and now) Obamacare. In truth, the debt deal passed in the summer of 2011 — which the press now says we must scrap if we are to avoid the “fiscal cliff” — was designed to postpone our going over the (actual) fiscal cliff.

In poker, if you have a weak hand, you have two choices: fold or bluff. The problem for the Republican House is that this is like a crooked game of 7-card stud — most of the cards were dealt face-up, and a couple of the others are marked. In short, everybody can see that the GOP has a weak hand. Bluffing would be like trying a fake field goal when down 6 points with 3 seconds left in the game. Nobody would buy it. Obama, meanwhile, has a strong hand — as everyone can also see — and he’s not bluffing.

The reason why Obama has a strong hand is not because he just won a whopping 50.6 percent of the popular vote and 26 of the 50 states. No, he has a strong hand because what will happen on New Year’s Day if no deal is reached is that taxes will be hiked about $4 for every $1 in spending cuts. More specifically, every taxpaying American will see his or her taxes rise, while defense spending will be rather dramatically cut. Do you think Obama could live with that?

The only thing better for Obama would be to have the tax hikes and defense cuts kick in and be able to blame the GOP for their happening: “As I’ve said all along, we need a balanced approach. But Republicans continue to put the concerns of the rich ahead of the concerns of middle-class Americans who are struggling. So, while I regret that a deal wasn’t possible at this time, I still hope that we can get both parties to see that everybody’s gotta compromise a little bit and can’t always get everything they want.” For Obama, this juicy combination of tax hikes, defense cuts, and blaming it all on an ostensibly recalcitrant GOP, would be like hitting the jackpot.

Obama implicitly suggests he wants to lower the 4-to-1 ratio of tax hikes to spending cuts, since he says he wants to prevent the scheduled the tax hike on the middle class. The GOP isn’t going to be able to push him much further than he claims he wants to go, especially since he’d probably actually prefer to keep the ratio at 4-to-1.

So, my advice to House Republicans is to fold — or at least don’t raise the ante. Don’t push your luck, and don’t pick this moment of weakness as the time to seek a “grand bargain.” Make Obama own this. You don’t have to vote for raising taxes on the wealthy (they’ll be raised anyway); just vote to stop the tax hike on the middle class. If Obama’s tax hikes on the wealthy hurt the economy like you say they will, it’ll be crystal clear who’s to blame. Fold and wait for better cards on the next deal. (They can’t be much worse.) Nothing decided this time around will do much of anything to avoid our going over the real fiscal cliff anyway. Wait and risk your chips when the real drivers of our debt are actually at stake. That’s the smart, conservative play.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: taxes
Please read this before opining...and then let us know...what do you think?

One part of me says "Yep, make the miserable SOB say it is all his..."

And the rest of me says, "We have to stop him...so resist!"

Then the reality knocks me back: taxes will rise even if we resist. So what to do?

1 posted on 11/16/2012 1:28:10 PM PST by SoFloFreeper
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To: SoFloFreeper

2 posted on 11/16/2012 1:31:01 PM PST by SoFloFreeper
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To: SoFloFreeper

It’s going over the cliff no matter what. Let the Kenyan own it, he is smarter than the rest of us.


3 posted on 11/16/2012 1:32:48 PM PST by DaxtonBrown (http://www.futurnamics.com/reid.php)
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To: DaxtonBrown; All

It won’t matter. The GOP will still be blamed for it all. The media will go out of its way to protect obama and the dems.


4 posted on 11/16/2012 1:34:28 PM PST by eekitsagreek
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To: SoFloFreeper

I say make him own it. The SHTF event is coming whether we get a tax deal or not. Our debt and unfunded liabilities are killing us and obama won’t do anything to stop it! Elections have consequences.


5 posted on 11/16/2012 1:36:51 PM PST by pgkdan (We are witnessing the modern sack of Rome. The barbarians have taken over.)
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To: SoFloFreeper

They’re going to blame the Republicans regardless, so screw that nonsense!! Never surrender!! Play for the long-term. Make Obama play out his long-term sure loser game. Vote in a Republican senate in 2014 and then impeach the corrupt, treasonous, paper-hanging Marxist SOB!!


6 posted on 11/16/2012 1:37:58 PM PST by Jim Robinson (Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God!!)
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To: SoFloFreeper

In the meantime, hold the line at all costs!! No surrender!!


7 posted on 11/16/2012 1:38:56 PM PST by Jim Robinson (Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God!!)
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To: DaxtonBrown
I say give Obama what he wants because “be careful what you wish for...”
8 posted on 11/16/2012 1:40:02 PM PST by utahagen
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To: SoFloFreeper

be realistic folks. if the GOP has only one member of congress, total. the media would make sure the GOP owned it. in addition, I believe that if the GOP had no one at all in congress, we’d still own it. So it does not matter what we do.

It’s time to see reality.


9 posted on 11/16/2012 1:41:14 PM PST by rigelkentaurus
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To: DaxtonBrown
They are right, taxes are going up anyways on those over $250K, so let it happen.

The real fun is in February when the debt ceiling has to be raised. Now, that will be the real game of chicken. We can say - we gave him what he wanted on the taxes, now we need real entitlement reductions to raise the ceiling.

Of course, they don't want and will not entertain any type of entitlement reform, so that will be the real standoff.

If then, we hold firm and don't raise the ceiling, federal workers are laid off first. Not the worst thing in the world. Then some checks might just be held back. We were reasonable on taxes; they are being unreasonable on cuts. Might just work.

Once people (the 47%) realize that there is not an unlimited amount of money available for all their “stuff”, maybe, just maybe, we can start pulling back a little on entitlements - raise Soc Sec a couple of years; means test it annually, reduce free Obamacare to maybe only 2x poverty level (is 4x now!), etc.

The debt level is much more important in the long run. Reid wants something like $4 trillion more. That has to be stopped.

10 posted on 11/16/2012 1:41:36 PM PST by dan on the right
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To: SoFloFreeper
"taxes will be hiked about $4 for every $1 in spending cuts."

That's incorrect. The "1.6 trillion" in the speeches pertains to a ten-year duration. The tax cuts set to expire would total about $370 billion during the first year (about $40 billion per year in Obama's preferred plan against the "rich").

The spending cuts, if allowed to go through in total, would amount to about $800 billion for the first year. IMO, sponsors of propaganda in the various socialist political parties are setting voters up to be fooled by their socialist members of Congress.

Focus on the scheduled spending cuts, and hold your pork-gobbling congressmen to seeing those spending cuts done.


11 posted on 11/16/2012 1:41:45 PM PST by familyop (We Baby Boomers are croaking in an avalanche of rotten politics smelled around the planet.)
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To: SoFloFreeper

Do as obama would do — vote “present.”


12 posted on 11/16/2012 1:43:26 PM PST by Heart of Georgia
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To: SoFloFreeper
Vote present.

This election shows that what we are dealing with is 51% of the people simply don't know what happens when leftist policies are put into place.This fact is never going to change. In fact, it will only get worse. Obama and congress will each be pulling on opposite sides of the rope. Obama will get everything he wants and then blame the Republicans for being "the party of no" when his policies fail. He will say they didn't let him go far enough.

The people need to be taught a lesson.

The Republicans need to let go of the rope. Let Obama fall on his ass as any thinking person knows he will if he implements his policies.

Give him the keys. Let him drive.

Nothing will change until people learn about the fruits of collectivism.

Unless you can think of a better way to teach them, I say this is it.

13 posted on 11/16/2012 1:44:16 PM PST by nitzy (A just law will neither punish virtue nor reward vice.)
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To: SoFloFreeper
The reason why Obama has a strong hand is not because he just won a whopping 50.6 percent of the popular vote

Obama won by quite a bit less than in '08.

It was far from a "whopping" victory.

14 posted on 11/16/2012 1:45:37 PM PST by what's up
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To: SoFloFreeper

every taxpaying American will see his or her taxes rise, while defense spending will be rather dramatically cut. Do you think Obama could live with that?

Yes, I think he has no problem with that notion. He doesn’t care about the “poor”. Everything he has designed has done nothing but hurt the poor even more. He’s an evil, dangerous idiot.


15 posted on 11/16/2012 1:46:35 PM PST by southernindymom
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To: SoFloFreeper

In 2014, work like mad to install a Republican Senate and increase conservatives in the House. In 2016, do not run anyone for president, but again triple-down on electing conservatives in both houses of Congress, strong individuals who will not fold.

The Democrats can have the presidency, when it means nothing, but the Democrat media would have a hard time without a Republican presidential candidate to vilify in order to keep their candidate’s failures hidden.

And there would be no convention, the biggest waste of time and money imaginable, nor would there be billion dollar campaigns dumping cash into the biased TV networks with all the disgusting ads. There are so many good features to this scenario.


16 posted on 11/16/2012 1:47:23 PM PST by txrefugee
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To: nitzy

Would be interesting to see the tax returns @ 249,999.99!
wouldn’t that say a lot!


17 posted on 11/16/2012 1:47:26 PM PST by Conserev1
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To: SoFloFreeper

The reality is that the same media and same politicians are going to blame the GOP, TEA Party, Bush or whatever no matter what the GOP does. SO you might as well stay and fight.


18 posted on 11/16/2012 1:47:39 PM PST by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: SoFloFreeper

I still think we ought to totally disband the Republican Party, all become Democrats and work to destroy their party from the inside.

Plus, once the toxic “Republican” label is gone, people will have to decide elections based on the relative merits of the candidates, and if that happens, conservatives win.


19 posted on 11/16/2012 1:53:38 PM PST by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: SoFloFreeper

“Plan T” let Obama own it. Pay homage to his immaculation by voting “present” on the RATs’ bill.


20 posted on 11/16/2012 2:01:23 PM PST by NonValueAdded ("Our president ... makes big speeches packed full of little ideas" Charles C. W. Cooke)
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To: SoFloFreeper

Correction of my own comment: the tax hikes and spending cuts combined total about $800 for the first year, with each “automatic” measure being near 50% of the total (for each of the first years). Closer to 50:50 than 4:1.

But the Democrat Administration has already proposed continuing the tax breaks for middle class taxpayers while sticking it to the “rich” (still not right, of course). Could be closer to 10:1 spending cuts:tax hikes. Anyway, those few of you in the private sector need to help us see to it that representatives don’t budge on the spending cuts. It would be possible to get all of the spending cuts done while seeing less of the proposed tax hikes (expiring tax breaks).

CBO Report: Avoiding the Fiscal Cliff Costs Over $1 Trillion
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2959776/posts


21 posted on 11/16/2012 2:06:14 PM PST by familyop (We Baby Boomers are croaking in an avalanche of rotten politics smelled around the planet.)
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To: rigelkentaurus

Those crafty Republican bastards deliberately lost the election so they could pin all the blame for the awful economy they created on our poor victim President Obama.

Well, they won’t get away with it. No matter what happens, it’s all STILL BUSH’S FAULT!!!


22 posted on 11/16/2012 2:10:00 PM PST by Argus
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To: SoFloFreeper
Let the intelligent states 'go Galt' and peacefully resist socialism. The national party is next to useless.

People will vote with their wallets and feet. Relocation of wealth from liberal states to 'right to work' and anti-obamacare states is right on schedule and will continue.

Eventually, the discrepancy in growth and job creation between 'red' and 'blue' states will be too large to ignore. As long as GOP (or whatever new name they may choose for their conservative party) Govs. and legislators stand firm, their states will serve as the models for the entire country to follow for recovery. Conversely, the policies exemplified by super-blue states will end up on the ash heap of history.

It might take decades, but it's the only way.

23 posted on 11/16/2012 2:19:31 PM PST by rfp1234 (Arguing with a liberal is like playing chess with a pigeon.)
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To: SoFloFreeper

Yeah just like Detroit & California, after there were no more Republicans and the Democrats ruined it, people wised up and all became Conservatives!!!

Oh Wait!


24 posted on 11/16/2012 2:49:27 PM PST by qam1 (There's been a huge party. All plates and the bottles are empty, all that's left is the bill to pay)
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To: SoFloFreeper

I have no idea who omugabee is.


25 posted on 11/16/2012 3:05:02 PM PST by DallasSun (Courage~Fear that has said its prayers.)
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To: SoFloFreeper

I have been thinking about this for awhile. Let him have his way.
Although, the pubbies have to make it as clear every step of the way as what they do not agree with and why they believe it is going to bad for Amreica.
keep explaining how the alternate plan would work even though that is not the way 0 is going.
Repeatedly say how 0 owns it.


26 posted on 11/16/2012 3:15:54 PM PST by Leep (Are you smarter than a 7th grade math student and or Barack 0bama?)
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To: SoFloFreeper

It’s so hard to cut domestic spending, it might be worth it to accept the defense cuts just to get it done. If there’s an emergency later that requires the military, it’s easy to raise defense spending.

Raising taxes is not a good thing, but it would give the Republicans an issue to run on in the next election. People believe them when they say they’re going to cut taxes.

Personally I’d like to see the spending cuts go through, but not the tax hikes. As a middle class taxpayer, I’d rather all our taxes go up at the same time than just taxes on the so-called rich. Closing deductions and loopholes no matter who they apply to is fine though.


27 posted on 11/16/2012 3:31:17 PM PST by JediJones (Newt Gingrich warned us that the "King of Bain" was unelectable. Did you listen?)
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