Skip to comments.Gallup Blew Its Presidential Polls, but Why?
Posted on 11/19/2012 7:15:20 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Last week's presidential election has widely been seen as a victory for pollsters who, on balance, saw President Obama as the favorite before Election Day. But that wasn't the case for the esteemed Gallup Organization. Its polling showed Republican Mitt Romney with a significant lead among likely voters 10 days before Nov. 6 and marginally ahead of Obama on the eve of an election that Obama won by about 3 percentage points.
At an event on Thursday at Gallup's downtown Washington offices, Gallup Editor in Chief Frank Newport told a gathering of fellow pollsters that the organization was reviewing its methodology in light of these inaccuracies. But its fairly consistent Republican bias in 2012 and its overestimation of the white portion of the electorate raise important questions about sampling and the way Gallup determines which respondents are registered and likely to vote.
"We don't have a definitive answer," Newport said.
The day before Election Day, Gallup released data culled from the four previous days, showing Romney with a 1-point lead among likely voters, 49 percent to 48 percent. Before that final survey, Gallup had suspended polling for three days in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, when nearly 10 million Americans were without electricity.
Immediately before the storm hit, Gallup showed Romney ahead by 5 points, 51 percent to 46 percent, and Romney led by as many as 7 points in mid-October. All the while, most other national polls showed a neck-and-neck race.
The reasons for Gallup's inaccurate results remain unclear, and they are particularly baffling because Gallup, from a simple methodological standpoint, does things the right way. The company calls both landline and cellular telephones, and in October, it increased the proportion of cell-phone interviews to half.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
Because they weren’t polling takers and idiots via Twitter on their Obamaphones.
Unfortunately, I think you’re right.
Caller on WMAL this morning said he knew three voters who voted for Romney in Philly precincts were Romney got 0 votes.
Nowhere nearly as disastrously as "unskewedpolls.com" did.
It’s the vote-counters, not the voters that count.
I've been wondering when these folks would surface. Wish they'd band together and speak out about it.
I don't think the poll was wrong. I think they're (Pollsters) scrambling on how to deal with the, er, inconsistencies aka fraud.
RE: Nowhere nearly as disastrously as “unskewedpolls.com” did.
Unskewed Polls SKEWED it to an R+ advantage. As did Gallup.
Looking at the results, if just a little more Republicans actually went and voted Republican, Romney would have won.
Just 333,000 VOTES IN 4 SWING STATES WOULD HAVE GIVEN ROMNEY THE PRESIDENCY
Despite losing the popular vote 51% to 48%—not a landslide for Obama by any means, but on the other hand not the neck and neck outcome many predicted—Mitt Romney would be President today if he had secured 333,908 more votes in four key swing states.
The final electoral college count gave President Obama a wide 332 to 206 margin over Romney. 270 electoral college votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Romney lost New Hampshires 4 electoral college votes by a margin of 40,659. Obama won with 368,529 to Romneys 327,870.
Romney lost Floridas 29 electoral college votes by a margin of 73,858. Obama won with 4,236,032 to Romney’s 4,162,174.
Romney lost Ohios 18 electoral college votes by a margin of 103,481. Obama won with 2,697,260 to Romneys 2,593,779
Romney lost Virginias 13 electoral college votes by a margin of 115,910. Obama won with 1,905,528 to Romneys 1,789,618.
Add the 64 electoral college votes from this switch of 333,908 votes in these four key states to Romneys 206, remove them from Obamas 332, and Romney defeats Obama 270 to 268.
Overall, voter turnout was down, from 131 million in 2008 to 122 million in 2012. Obama won 7.6 million fewer votes than he did in 2008, and Romney won 1.3 million fewer than McCain in 2008.
Romney improved his vote total’s over McCain’s by the slightest amount in three of these four states, but in Ohio, he actually had 81,000 fewer votes than McCain in 2008.
What do these facts tell us?
Both parties lost support of the population in the four years between 2008 and 2012. While Obama lost more support, he started with more, and he was able to hang on to enough of his base to overcome Romney’s inability to keep and expand his base.
I THINK ROMNEY *DID* WIN
I THINK THIS ELECTIN WAS STOLEN!!!!!!!!!!!1
I have never seen people so motivated to go vote, and I have never seen lines this big when I voted.
I saw someone PURPOSELY cause a paper jam in the pathetic scanners they had in my precinct- i think they manufactured votes for Obama, but also DELETED votes for Romney
DELETING votes is way more difficult to prove.
... which, by your own stated figures, was not reflected in electoral reality.
The people cruelly gulled by "unskewedpolls.com" were the same ones guilty of uncritically swallowing Dick Morris' out-and-out crap, whole.
Perhaps they had a Freeper running their polls? They sure sounded like that :-)
Gallup was threatened by a lawsuit by the 0bama Administration about the #’s the voting #’s they were publishing, so they were held in bad favor, and weren’t told about the epic fraud around the corner the other liberal pollsters were told about the fraud, so they compensated.
Your three posts pretty much covered it. Not just corruption, bribery and fraud, but outright vote switching.
Col West has opened the door.
We must fight election fraud.
It falls on We the People.
Silence is consent
Theres overwhelming evidence of fraud.- Here
MITT ROMNEY TWEETS ABOUT ELECTION FRAUD:
MITT ROMNEY in 2012! @PlanetRomney #tcot The Competent Conservative: Elections Have Not Yet Been Certified. Heres What You Can Do: Here
Excerpt from Mitt Romney's reference:
These elections are NOT certified yet. The only way to get this investigated, much less recounted or overturned, is through the Secretary of State of each of the five key states: Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. EVEN IF YOU ARE IN ANOTHER STATE you can help. But it wont do any good to dilute our effort to challenge California or Michigan or other states. Until a major group gets involved to do more, here is the plan: Contact the Secretary of State of the state in question. See contact information below...
Read the rest- Here
SARAH PALIN speaks out on Twitter about massive Obama machine voter fraud:
>Sarah Palin @SarahPalinUSA Between suppression of the military vote and voter fraud, Obama stole another election. http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/46302 DEMAND A RECOUNT! #VoterFraud
>Sarah Palin;@SarahPalinUSA People need to stop pointing fingers within the GOP and investigate the Dems' massive voter fraud and suppression of the military vote.
The website,'Barack Obama Vote Fraud 2012' is keeping a running account of cases of voter fraud and what to do about it:
Sign their petition- over 99,000 and counting -cards, emails- Here
Another petition, The 'We The People' petition has 60,000 signatures and counting- Here
'American Thinker'- "..Election stolen." Here-
'WND' List of voter fraud reports Here
ATLAS SHRUGS- voter fraud, Somalian videos- Here
Hannity and Col Allan West slam voter fraud Nov 12- Here
Photo of SOMALIANS brought to Ohio voting stations by the busload, 95% of whom did not speak English, and told to vote for Obama, straight Dem ticket- Here
'Human Events', report pollwatcher eyewitness to busload of Somalians at Ohio poll, spoke no English, told to vote Obama Here
Must watch videos!
VIDEO-- Programmer Testifies About Rigging Elections With Vote Counting- Here
VIDEO- Illegal Aliens Caught Voting and Stealing Elections In Florida In Vast Numbers- Here
VIDEO- MICHAEL SAVAGE: How Obama fixed the 2012 election- Here
VIDEO- Massive voter fraud discovered in April- Here
VIDEO- Whistle blower speaks out about voter fraud- Here
We can not wait for 2014 and 2016 to regroup and figure out new strategies. By then it will be too late. The Marxist/Muslim usurper will have completed his planned distruction of America. That's what people fail to understand.
We must act NOW.
Start with the election. If we let the Rats get away with this massive voter fraud, we're no better than a bananna republic.
We must keep digging and pounding him every day, in every way we can- phony birth certificate, Benghazi, Fast and Furious, his hidden life, records....
We are FReepers. We must fight!
Those who shrug and accept this atrocity without a fight are not worthy to be called Freepers!
The "likely voter" is catching up with the registered voter which is further left with "adults" even further left from there in polling.
At the national level, this is bad news for anyone not a Democrat ally. For now it's certain states that are slipping away but the electoral map may be on the verge of making it "impossible" for a Republican to win the White House.
Sure Obama's not on the ballot in 2016 and even a "successful" presidency is no guarantee the White House will stay in the hands of the same party following a two term incumbent. But it's something we should be conscious of and trying to build electoral options over these next four years.
Why? Really? How about massive VOTER FRAUD that no one has the gonads to expose!!
Welcome to a Liberal Dictatorship. Bend over and get your bar of wooden soap.
These social media tools allowed the Democrats to target each individual “Julia” voter and convince them that their pet stupid issue was the party’s #1 priority.
The GOP needs to figure this out and fast. Throwing your message out on talk radio ain’t gonna work like it did in the 90’s.
Because they only allowed for clinton-scale cheating, and figured that Romney would have a competent poll-watching program, especially in states with Republican governors.
Polls don’t count cheating...Unless there is a “fudge factor”.
Gallop must not have used one. And therefore since the cheating was on such a massive scale then it messed up Gallop.
Votes are still coming in.
As of this morning 124.6 million votes have been counted. Obama is currently down over 6 million from 2008 and Romney is down .5 million from what McCain received.
First, the numbers changed during the final week.
Gallup and Rasmussen both had Romney’s lead shrink, from 5 and 3 to 1 point the day before the election. But, the polls published the day before were collected over a three day period. So, there were on average 2 days old.
The mainstream media polls went from neck-and-neck on average to something between neck-and-nexk and a 3 point advantage for Obama, we’ll call it a 1 point average Obama advantage. Again, the polls released the day before were generally conducted over several days.
So, allowing for these two sets of polls to encompass the possibility of a little bias this way or that way, they tell us the same story. The numbers were changing.
A simple answer is that the storm turned Romney’s cruise to victory into a defeat.
A better answer is that Romney did not run through the tape. He should have hit Obama hard on Benghazi in the final Presidential debate. He shold have said the real issue isn’t the extent to which the President lied to the American people to save his campaign slogan. The issue is how weak is the U.S. and, therefore, how dangerous is the world.
Instead, Romney positioned himself as a non-threatening alternative.
A yet better answer is that he should have attacked fire with fire. When he was attacked personally, he should have attacked the President personally. He should have said, why are they lying about my background, it is because they can’t tell the truth about Obama’s background.
Isn’t it obvious that he’s an empty suit. He doesn’t know a thing about the economy. He was given a pass by the media in 2008 and, now, with our continued economic troubles, we’re paying for it.
But, instead of fighting fire with fire, he thought his corporate perma-smile would convince everybody he really was a nice guy.
Nice guys finish second in the game of politics where if you don’t win, you’re a loser.
According to this link in Slate, that honor belongs to Franklin County, Idaho at 92%, which also happens to be the home of the famous Napoleon Dynamite.
I tried to find precinct by precinct data for the county, but could not. However, I did find data showing that 94% of the voters in the country voted in the Republican primary earlier in the year. Romney managed to win only 86% of the voters in the Republican presidential caucus and only 93% of the voters in the presidential election.
Yet, we are all supposed to believe that not one single voter in 56 Philadelphia precincts voted for Romney?
Really? Even among the doofus population there is an occasional genius who realizes that a society which actually produces wealth has more to loot than one which only redistributes it.
... or -- Occam's Razor -- the Republican party attempted to beat a doctrinaire Chicago liberal with a doctrinaire Massachusetts liberal, and suffered an entirely predictable (and predicted) electoral thumping, as a result.
Go right ahead and keep placing your faith in the revealed wisdom of Karl Rove and Dick Morris, however.
Hillary Clinton will certainly appreciate the GOP-e's continued blind, mulish insistence upon gainsaying brute reality, when she crushes Jebbie Bush and/or Chris Christie, come '16.
They will find these votes in the Ohio or Mississippi River, maybe in both.
What went wrong??
How can we fix it in 2016??
Who do you support in 2016??
There wont be anything left of America by 2016.
The time to fix it is NOW.
Start with the election. If we let the Rats get away with this massive voter fraud, were no better than a bananna republic.
We must keep digging and pounding him every day, in every way we can- phony birth certificate, Benghazi, Fast and Furious, his hidden life, records....
There are massive reports of criminal activity
(not mischief, not shenanigans- CRIMINAL ACTIVITY) going on all over the U.S during the presidential election.
Reports of machines changing votes from Romney to Obama, eyewitness reports of Republican poll watchers who observed busloads of non-English speaking Somalians in Ohio being instructed to vote Obama- the list is endless.
Romney lost because of this, not any other reason.
Nobody could have won against the fraud planned and perpetrated by the Obama Machine.
Silence in the face of evil is itself evil. Not to speak is to speak. Not to act is to act.
The evidence is overwhelming!
Also share http://www.facebookcensorship.com and see the documentation of their censorship and harassment.
WHAT YOU CAN DO:
Visit the site:
Most of Obama Voter Fraud activity is moving to FaceBook.
Obama Voter Fraud Volunteers
Obama Voter Fraud on FaceBook-
Sign their petition- over 99,000 and counting -cards, email
Another petition, The We The People petition has 60,000 signatures and counting-
So, we are still analyzing fraudulent election results while not acknowledging the fraud?
The big lie is also a form of election fraud, deceiving people is taking their votes away from them. This election was about total lies and distortions.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.