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Nightmare Scenarios for Obama's 2nd Term
Townhall.com ^ | November 19, 2012 | Mike Shedlock

Posted on 11/19/2012 7:38:26 AM PST by Kaslin

Last week I was interviewed by Constantine von Hoffman for a CBS news article on regarding economic nightmares for Obama's 2nd term.

Calculated Risk was interviewed as well. His nightmare scenario is war, specifically noting the rise of Golden Dawn.

Eight people were interviewed for the CBS article but the organization was maddening. Specifically, there is no way to see all 8 viewpoints of people interviewed at once. You have to click through pages one at a time. I was curious enough to do it, Calculated Risk gave up after the second click.

In a clear effort to generate clicks, articles like this are an extreme turn-off and actually counterproductive. That no readers emailed me with a link to this article says no one bothered clicking through all the pages.

I talked to von Hoffman about numerous things, only one was mentioned in the article. Many of my points were of the nature of things I think should happen (and would benefit to the global economy over the long run if they did), but most economists would disagree.

Mish Nightmare Scenario

  1. Not Addressing the Fiscal Cliff
  2. Breakup of the Eurozone
  3. UK exiting the EU
  4. China Growth falls to Zero Because of Rebalancing
  5. Currency Crisis in Japan
  6. Failure to address pension problems in US
  7. Rise of the Neo-Nazi Golden Dawn Party in Greece Leads to War

I mentioned all of those things and more. The first four are things that I actually believe need to happen (and the sooner the better) to prevent a global  nightmare!

Unfortunately, most economists want to kick the can down the road still more.

For a discussion of the fiscal cliff, please see Misdiagnosing the Fiscal Cliff; Shrill Voices and Economic Nonsense; Tyranny of Balanced Budgets

A breakup of the eurozone is inevitable in my opinion. For a detailed explanation why, please see Spain's Unpleasant Choice: Accept Lower Wages and Still Higher Unemployment, Leave the Euro and Default.The sooner a breakup happens the better. Delays end up like Greece.

In regards to China, please consider "China Rebalancing Has Begun"; What are the Global Implications? Michael Pettis on China Rebalancing, Chinese Price Deflation, and Spain Exit from Euro; Target 2 Revisited.

Note that can-kicking exercise in Greece has led to the rise of the Golden Dawn party. Expect the same to happen in Spain if the agony lasts long enough.

Essentially, my nightmare scenario is more can-kicking exercises until the entire global economy blows up in a currency crisis and radical parties like Golden Dawn gain prominence everywhere, fueling political as well as economic violence.

Addendum

I had war in the Mideast with spiking oil prices as part of my nightmare scenario that I mentioned to von Hoffman. I simply forgot to mention it when I typed this post up earlier today.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 11/19/2012 7:38:29 AM PST by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin; pookie18
obamacare sucks
2 posted on 11/19/2012 7:45:50 AM PST by FrankR (They will become our ultimate masters the day we surrender the 2nd Amendment.)
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To: Kaslin

Its going to be bad- just look at the mess he inherits when he takes over in January


3 posted on 11/19/2012 7:50:25 AM PST by Mr. K (some days even my lucky rocketship underpants don't help...)
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To: Kaslin

Won’t matter to zero. He’ll just find some insignificant country to visit during the nightmare.


4 posted on 11/19/2012 7:51:13 AM PST by duckman (I'm part of the group pulling the wagon!)
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To: FrankR
That's a good one. Nicely done.
5 posted on 11/19/2012 7:58:59 AM PST by Joe Brower (The "American People" are no longer capable of self-governance.)
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To: Mr. K

That’s exactly why I don’t believe there was any intention of this clown getting reelected, until they needed to cover up the attack in Libya, and then there was massive voter fraud.

No president would leave this big a mess for themselves.


6 posted on 11/19/2012 8:04:33 AM PST by IMR 4350
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To: Kaslin

Obama and his Administration have proven that they were unable to handle the storming of 2 installations in a nation that we have a level of support, assets, and nearby offensive naval/air equipment.

Anything harder than “changing cable providers” sends this group into a Jonestown death spiral.

Some people keep calling for violent revolution (which I strongly oppose), but y’all better hurry up: over the next 60 years you will not have a Government that would be easier to topple than this one.


7 posted on 11/19/2012 8:06:53 AM PST by Noamie
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To: Kaslin; kingattax
Obama's one goal is to usher in the Marxist Worker's Paradise. Everything must be seen through this lens. He and his motley group of Leftists are not motivated by any other idea. Everything is geared toward that one goal. Obamacare, no more religious freedom, getting rid of American capitalism, massive economic strangleholds...

At some point we are going to have to form our own 'collective' and cram "NO MORE!" down their throats.

8 posted on 11/19/2012 8:20:24 AM PST by Slyfox
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To: FrankR
(Obama kisses Aung San Suu Kyi) This is not a polite 'cheek kiss' Obama is manhandling the woman...he treats this lady like some one from his South-Side Chicago haunts....what an ungentlemanly thing to do...No Class.
9 posted on 11/19/2012 8:21:52 AM PST by yoe
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To: Kaslin

Interesting list. The neo-nazis in Greece might lead to it existing the EU, but not war. Israel’s planned offensive in response to 250 rockets into Israel as far as Tel Aviv is a more likely problem, with oil prices spiking if Iran gets involved directly or if Jordan falls, since Al Queda just put it in their cross-hairs.


10 posted on 11/19/2012 8:33:04 AM PST by tbw2
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To: Kaslin

The name of that Greek neo-Nazi group has occult significance.


11 posted on 11/19/2012 8:38:39 AM PST by RegulatorCountry
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To: Slyfox

With the advent of Obamacare, what other collective policies do they really need? Health care will be socialized. Foodstamps mean food is socialized. Unemployment and Social Security Disability and Pigford and a hundred other government programs mean that income is socialized. Look at how many government workers we have. Work is socialized. The government’s takeover of school loans means that education is socialized. Recreation? Look at how many “poor” families have cable television. “Look! Look! See your black heroes fighting in the coliseums! Take your FOODSTAMP card and get your free bread!” We are Rome.


12 posted on 11/19/2012 8:51:11 AM PST by blueunicorn6 ("A crack shot and a good dancer")
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To: Kaslin

8. Israel concludes he presents an insurmountable obstacle to their national survival and acts accordingly.


13 posted on 11/19/2012 8:54:37 AM PST by Buckeye McFrog
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To: blueunicorn6

I want no part of it. I have some integrity and self respect. I am an American.


14 posted on 11/19/2012 8:59:28 AM PST by hal ogen (First Amendment or Reeducation Camp?)
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To: blueunicorn6
We are Rome.

No doubt.

15 posted on 11/19/2012 10:02:57 AM PST by Slyfox
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To: Slyfox

It will be four more years of failure....you can thank the first George Bush


16 posted on 11/19/2012 10:08:12 AM PST by Hojczyk
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To: Buckeye McFrog

Good news is that God has Israel’s back.


17 posted on 11/19/2012 10:14:16 AM PST by Biggirl ("Jesus talked to us as individuals"-Jim Vicevich/Thanks JimV!)
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To: duckman
Won’t matter to zero. He’ll just find some insignificant country to visit during the nightmare.

Our formerly Argentine friend Ferfal (see his blog at blogspot.com), who now lives in Northern Ireland for the peace and quiet and better security -- no kidding -- related how the former president of Argentina simply got in a helicopter and fled the Casa Rosada when the SHTF in 2001. Shades of the Fall of Saigon.

The Kirchner family has a tight little dictatorship down there now, which they're propping up by giving the vote, and land, and money, to illegal alien border-crashers. And any Argentines who complain are immediately denounced as racists. (The illegals are mostly, Ferfal tells us, semiliterate Bolivian Indians who can barely speak Spanish.)

18 posted on 11/19/2012 10:40:29 AM PST by lentulusgracchus
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To: Kaslin

My nightmare scenario starts with Obama taking the Oath of Office. Whatever happens after that is guaranteed to be a disaster.


19 posted on 11/19/2012 11:52:26 AM PST by Pollster1 (Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. - Ronald Reagan)
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To: Slyfox; blueunicorn6
We are Rome.

No doubt.

Nah. Lilliput.

20 posted on 11/19/2012 12:04:03 PM PST by lentulusgracchus
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To: Kaslin
Failure to address pension problems in US

This one sits oddly with me...I don't deny there are likely some seriously under-funded government pension plans, including teachers and other public workers. There are problems with Social Security, which is the primary retirement income source for far too many Americans, but I'm wary of talk of a government solution to this, because I know there are potentially trillions of dollars' worth of 401(k) and IRAs out there. And I also know that rather than be thankful to some of us for being responsible enough to save, there are socialists out there who claim we're getting too good of a deal--we're getting "tax breaks" in the form of pre-tax contributions, and the ability to defer interest and capital gains. Those socialists want this money...so badly, they're salivating.

21 posted on 11/19/2012 12:14:06 PM PST by Lou L (Health "insurance" is NOT the same as health "care")
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To: blueunicorn6

>>>We are Rome.<<<

Then consider this... the death of the republic was not the end of Rome. On the contrary, after a civil war, the Romans themselves gave Augustus the power of emperor, whose first act was the restoration of the Republic, the irony of a dictator restoring liberty notwithstanding.

I can easily see a scenario that goes like this... yes, we have a climactic battle for the republic and the Constitution, and, yes, we win, but we carry on the federalization of institutions from the previous era. Everyone sounds conservative, but the state reigns supreme anyway. Then we can face the world and go Roman on our enemies in a big way. Maybe there would even be two centuries (or more) of a Pax Americana. It’s worthy to note that the Romans were still around when Columbus went on his voyages. The death of our republic may just be one of the stages in our national story.

Still... God help us.


22 posted on 11/19/2012 8:47:10 PM PST by redpoll
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