Skip to comments.GOP turnout: myths and reality
Posted on 11/23/2012 9:24:41 AM PST by SeekAndFind
In the immediate aftermath of the election, Republicans slammed Mitt Romney for not being able to match the popular vote totals of John McCain, but many forgot that the full totals in the popular vote take a few weeks to finalize. This past week, Romney's totals surpassed McCain's in an election that had a smaller overall turnout, Kimberly Strassel reports for the Wall Street Journal --- and Romney did significantly better in swing states than the GOP did in 2008 as well (via Scott Johnson at Power Line):
Mr. Romney beat Mr. McCain's numbers in every single battleground, save Ohio. In some cases, his improvement was significant. In Virginia, 65,000 more votes than in 2008. In Florida, 117,000 more votes. In Colorado, 52,000. In Wisconsin, 146,000. Moreover, in key states like Florida, North Carolina, Colorado and Virginia, Mr. Romney turned out even more voters than George W. Bush did in his successful re-election in 2004.
By contrast, Mr. Obama’s turnout was down from 2008 in nearly every battleground. He lost 54,000 votes in Virginia, 46,000 votes in Florida, 50,000 votes in Colorado, 63,000 votes in Wisconsin. Ditto Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio. The only state where Mr. Obama increased his votes (by 36,000) was North Carolina, and he was still beaten by a Romney campaign that raised its own turnout by a whopping 147,000.
The notion of an enthusiasm gap among Republicans compared to 2008 is therefore a myth, one suggested by incomplete data the day after the election. So what happened? Did Romney just run out of time, or was Obama’s downturn just short of bad enough to lose? Not exactly, Strassel argues. The demographic data shows that Democrats boosted voter turnout where it counted, and where Republicans didn’t bother to seriously compete:
Because what ought to scare the GOP is this: Even with higher GOP turnout in key states, even with Mr. Obama shedding voters, Democrats still won. Mr. Obama accomplished this by tapping new minority voters in numbers that beat even Mr. Romney’s better turnout.
In Florida, 238,000 more Hispanics voted than in 2008, and Mr. Obama got 60% of Hispanic voters. His total margin of victory in Florida was 78,000 votes, so that demographic alone won it for him. Or consider Ohio, where Mr. Romney won independents by 10 points. The lead mattered little, though, given that black turnout increased by 178,000 votes, and the president won 96% of the black vote. Mr. Obama’s margin of victory there was 103,000. …
Republicans right now are fretting about Mr. Romney’s failures and the party’s immigration platformthat’s fair enough. But equally important has been the party’s mind-boggling failure to institute a competitive Hispanic ground game. The GOP doesn’t campaign in those communities, doesn’t register voters there, doesn’t knock on doors. So while pre-election polling showed that Hispanics were worried about Obama policies, in the end the only campaign that these voters heard fromby email, at their door, on the phonewas the president’s.
In order to win national elections, Republicans have to compete in all communities. That doesn’t mean pandering, but it does mean putting free-market, small-government philosophies and slogans into concrete policy proposals that will improve the lives of voters. It’s not enough to talk about empowering investors to take risk in the American economy; we need to talk about how we can encourage that investment to go into urban centers to revitalize neighborhoods and create jobs. We need to commit to school choice and educational reform, in combination with a shift in control away from federal mandates (and the costly administration they require) to the local school boards and parents. We have to have specific policy proposals on the table and the commitment to follow through on them.
Until we remember what Jack Kemp figured out two decades ago, we will never compete for those votes, and end up with a massive handicap in national elections.
Stolen birth certificate, Stolen social security numbers, STOLEN election.
WTF are our Republican governors and Sec of State?
Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Penn, etc....
Thanks for setting the record straight. Romney DID do better than John McCain, and GOP enthusiasm was definitely there. No doubt.
But we need to do more analysis on the MASSIVE CHEATING AND VOTER FRAUD which occurred especially in OH, PA,VA, FL, and CO where it is now well documented.
Romney could have received 70% of the popular vote and still would have lost. The DemocRATS are now the vote counters. “Those who vote decide nothing. THOSE WHO COUNT THE VOTES...”
From 2011 census figured, I estimate there are 1.1 million blacks of voting age in Ohio - and the Obama campaign was able to drive roughly ten percent of the total black voters to the polls that did not vote in 2008. So we are supposed to believe that there were so many black voters that stayed home in 2008 when previously given the chance to vote for a black president?
This reeks of voter fraud.
Or they all got obamaphones and were sent text messages or reminded to vote by said obamaphone?
Sadly we will probably never know the magnitude of Black disaffection with Bathhouse Barry and his support of gay marriage etc. The Dem party operatives voted in place of the Black population.
We can not wait for 2014 and 2016 to regroup and figure out new strategies. By then it will be too late. The Marxist/Muslim usurper will have completed his planned distruction of America.
Thats what people fail to understand.
Col Allen West; I dont want to see America become like Zimbabwe where people dont trust their electoral process. If we cannot trust the integrity of the voting system then we are no longer a free republic.
Col West has opened the door.
Its now up to We The People.
SILENCE IS CONSENT
Polls indicated that Romney was going to win the election.
Mitt Romney knew he had won, too, when he got off that plane unannounced and there were thousands in a parking garage across the way cheering him, and he put his hand over his heart and said,’That is how you know you’ve won’.
The economy is close to Great Depression era conditions, and unemployment is almost as high as when Obama entered office.
Economic conditions became so dire after Obama took office it prompted the rise of an entire new movement, the Tea Party.
Presidents rarely win reelection when the economy is in the tank.
So how did Romney lose a race that numerous reputable polls and pundits predicted would be an easy win, based on historical patterns?
Massive voter fraud.
There are massive reports of criminal activity
(not mischief, not shenanigans, as many term the fraud- but CRIMINAL ACTIVITY) going on all over the U.S during the presidential election.
Reports of machines changing votes from Romney to Obama, eyewitness reports of Republican poll watchers who observed busloads of non-English speaking Somalians in Ohio being instructed to vote Obama- the list is endless.
Romney lost because of this, not any other reason.
Nobody could have won against the fraud planned and perpetrated by the Obama Machine.
The evidence is overwhelming!
Accuracy In Media
The Left’s national voter fraud strategy exposed:
Thousands of military votes uncounted or missing:
Demonstration- voter machine hacked:
Go to http://www.facebookcensorship.com and see the documentation of their censorship and harassment.
What you can do:
Visit these sites:
The Competent Conservative: Here’s What You Can Do:
WND: How Obama Can Be Stopped In The Electoral College:
Most of Obama Voter Fraud activity is moving to FaceBook.
Obama Voter Fraud Volunteers
Obama Voter Fraud on FaceBook-
Sign the petition- over 99,000 and counting -cards, email
Another petition, The We The People
(petition has 60,000 signatures and counting)https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/recount-election/ZQmy0Mlv#thank-you=p
The best Obama Exposure site on the net:
The United StatesLibrary of Congress has
for inclusion in its historic collection
of Internet materials
Thanks for this. Will use these resources. Action must be taken!
All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.-—Edmund Burke.
Thanks for this. Will use these resources. Action must be taken!
All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.-—Edmund Burke.
Does it really matter about who got what between McCain and Romney? They were both garbage nominees.
The only part of the electorate that Romney couldn’t make any headway whatsoever was the Stupid Vote (exit polls indicate he got 0.0000% of the stupid vote).
The Democrats did just not get their people to the polls in high numbers, but in doing so they intentionally created situations where there would be long lines at swing state polling stations which made the process too unpleasant and time comsummg for those who may have voted for Romney.
Do not believe for a second that the long lines to vote were unintentional and do not believe that they are not forms of voter intimidation and a mechanism to suppress the Romney vote.
When people find solace in the similarity of the numbers of 2012 to 2008, then we are really in trouble, and the Romney/rino voices are truly the loudest still.
2008 was an election impossible to win.
2012 was an election impossible to lose.
Yet the Romney/rino crowd are comparing them as though Romney was not a disaster of historic proportions.
Did anyone really expect 0bama to leave office? Not me. Did anyone really think Axelrod would shave his mustache? Hell no. He knew 0bama was going to win, because Axelrod was the fraud orchestrator with the Unions, the black panthers, ACORN and the 'U.N. poll monitors'.
The MOST disgusting evil facing America before, during and after the election is THE MAJOR MEDIA. There could be a MILLION SCREAMS OF VOTER FRAUD, and.. Would they cover it? HELL NO!!! So, if the media doesn't cover it, IT DIDN'T HAPPEN, and that's where we are right now. Completely ignorant of how bad the fraud was because the media won't tell us so as to protect their evil Satan.
Now, if we could put to bed the myth of the stolen election, that pops up every time a serious person tries to seriously discuss how to win elections, even on this thread.
There is a severe disconnect between how Hispanics live their lives and their support of candidates who work to undermine their way of life.
I believe that hispanics who voted for Obama did so, not because they secretly believe the same things he does, but they voted for Obama because the messages they were hearing was that Republicans are out to get them and do harm to their way of life. They were not hearing anything from us, so it was very easy for them to believe that we are the bad guys.
How do we counter this? By opening a dialogue with them that proves that everything that is written in the Republican platform supports their ideals toward life and liberty.
Obama does not support life or liberty. We need to stand up and get counted for what we do believe. Republicans make the mistake in thinking that the only things that concern Hispanics are their legal status.
They are pro-life and pro-business. We should begin our dialogue on those points.
See my post at #22.
There were quite a number of stupid people I don't consider liberal who voted against Romney because he was "against women" or "a liar". The mailboxes full of fliers (several a day) didn't help. The majority of ads on the radio were against us, e.g. Planned Parenthood running their anti-Romney ad every 10 minutes on the country music station. Many of the ads on our side sucked like the RSC ad against Kaine, it was ridiculous.
Under 70% of the eligible voters are registered. Of that amount about 80% voted in 2008.
So, in 2008, of the eligible population of voters, there were 80 million that didn't vote. That amount is spread fairly evenly across all population groups.
In 2008, Ohio had a voting age population of 8.5 million, of which 5.7 million voted. So almost 3 million voting age Ohioans didn't vote. U.S. Voter Participation 1990-2010
(NOTE: Oddly, in this link they keep saying that 145 million divided by 217 million is 79%, but it's 68%)
2008 vote NEARLY erased racial gap explains how, in 2008, and increase in black turnout brought their voting average to about 65%, which was ALMOST up to the overall population. So even in 2008, blacks didn't vote at a higher rate than the general population, and about 35% of eligible black voters did not vote.
In 2008, blacks were 11% of the vote in Ohio, or about 616,000; 97% voted for Obama.
So, could blacks have increased from 616,000 to 800,000? That's a big move, but would reflect a registration increase of about 20%.
So, while I think it is possible, and certainly easy enough to get a lot more new voters to the polls, including new 18-year-olds, I do agree that 178,000 new black voters in Ohio seems like a stretch.
I'd be curious where that specific number comes from.
I will say that comparing CNN 2008 and 2012 numbers, they suggest that black turnout in Ohio increased from 11% of the total to 15% of the total. 11% of the 2008 total was 616,000. 14% of the 2012 total would be 740,000, so the difference would be 124,000, not 178,000. Of course, that is based on a lower total turnout in Ohio in 2012 from 2008, and the numbers are still increasing for the state as they count more of the votes.
The big thing though to note is that this statement you made : So we are supposed to believe that there were so many black voters that stayed home in 2008 when previously given the chance to vote for a black president?
The answer is yes, the 2008 numbers show that even with the historic black candidate, blacks only managed to get their turnout up to the average for the entire population.
And in the past 4 years, Obama was able to increase that turnout even more, as he used every power available to the President to target that demographic and others.
Consider that the black birth rate for teen mothers was about 10% in 1990.
So, if you are interested in real information, you should take this post as you would a wikipedia entry, and do your own study.
For example, polls showed that Obama would win the election. Col Allen West has conceded his race, the economy is nowhere near depression era, that is a liberal talking point Obama used to excuse his performance, Unemployment is definitely high but was dropping leading up to the election, and most voters are employed, and most who aren't are solid democrat constituencies anyway. Plus, Romney never really explained how he'd fix the unemployment for the disaffected democrats, who Obama effectively convinced that Romney was just a rich white guy who didn't care about them.
The economic election predictors had turned toward Obama in the end of the campaign as well, barely but certainly not the clear "no incumbent wins" type of election.
Thus, when the poster says "So how did Romney lose a race that numerous reputable polls and pundits predicted would be an easy win, based on historical patterns?", unfortunately that statement is a false, unfounded assertion, and thus the rest of the argument fails.
But don't try to give facts to that poster, he doesn't want to read them, and would prefer to resort to childish name-calling.
Not when you take population growth into account. Take McCain, adjust for population growth and his numbers are still better than Mitt’s.
The truth is that he ran a terrible campaign, so let’s stop making excuses for Mitt’s loss.
I see the obamavoterfraud site still has “BREAKING: St. Lucie County, Florida Had 141.1% Turnout; Obama Won County (FL)” in their list. Actually St. Lucie had 70% turnout. It is pretty easy to look up. The claim of 141% comes from a fake listing by some random anonymous idiot commenting on some website. With obvious junk like that, there’s no reason to believe any of the rest of it.
They cheated - but it was our fault that it was close enough for the cheating to matter.
Many people are grasping at straws and still cant accept reality.
The voter fraud arguments have taken on a birth certificate quality. There are such obvious errors in it that it is hard to take any of it seriously. There is in fact serious fraud in places like Philly were 56 divisions with an average of 400 voters in each of them managed perfect Obama scores. That’s out of the 1700 in the city and a lot of those are 100% black (so they had hundreds of chances to try for a perfect score). IMO, the only way they could get a perfect score with no mistakes is by kicking out observers and doing some sort of coaching or outright proxy voting.
Just to report an observation I had during the first Clinton election -
I was working a project in an urban inner city area around gov’t housing projects. The apathy of the work ethic was evident. But come election day, driving by a polling precinct, I was amazed at how active it was. It’s a shame that the same energy could not be applied to working hard at earning money via a legitimate job. I believe there was some fraud, but most likely it has now come down to you really can’t run against Santa Claus.
It’s a long tradition here to vent on issues like Obama’s birth certificate games. Although they are a distraction they don’t impede other serious discussion. The likelihood of fraud in some places like Philly still needs to be addressed.
No true Conservative or even Republican would get so spastic over a factual post about voter fraud.
Spoken like a true Lib
During 2012 here in Cleveland, a morning drive time radio program, heard widely across the state, was besieged constantly by the DNC offering spokespersons to be interviewed. The morning host said, after the election, hardly a day went by they couldn't have had a democrat guest to be interviewed.
Despite repeated calls to the Romney campaign to provide people to balance the program (this is a fairly conservative host), they never heard back from them. Ever. Not one national republican was made available for an interview on a widely listened to radio broadcast in a key swing state.
I don't doubt the GOP failed to try to get Hispanic votes--They didn't even try to get white ones in Cleveland.
Fraud, maybe, some, but the bottom line from 2008 and 2012 as well, is that professional republicans are big on money-getting but just halfhearted, half-assed campaigners.
“GOP turnout: myths and reality (Romney beat McCains numbers in almost all single battleground)”
So what? One RINO barely beat another one.
The only vote that counted was Romney vs Obama and even though Obama had significantly fewer voters, presided over an 8% unemployment rate for an extended period of time, lost the first debate horrendously, has crony socialism scandals abound, had the simmering Benghazi scandal surrounding him, Romney still couldn’t win.
If you want to claim election fraud, prove it. Until it is definitively proven or shut down, it will continue. It will probably get worse.
Yep pretty easy to blow that one out of the water with facts but some don't seem to want to acknowledge them. The West fiasco was largely his and no one elses. Had he worked harder on his GOTV effort in the GOP county of Martin and got more votes there he'd have won the 18th and St. Lucie wouldn't have been discussed. West lost the CD by some 1900 votes and he failed in Martin, not St. Lucie, imo.
West Murphy St Lucie 52,672 (44.5%) 65,567 (55.4%) Palm Beach 68,348 (50.1%) 68,158 (49.9%) Martin 43,333 (57.1%) 32,532 (42.9%) Romney won by 18,083 votesClick
You probably think Team 0bama has nothing to do with the current assault on the private sector by Unions right now either. Him meeting with union bosses immediately following his theft of the election is just another coincidence. I don't think you realize just how vile and despicable Team 0bama is. You don't know just how evil this demon is because you seem to think 0bama would have nothing to do with stealing an election. He STOLE deceased baby Virginia Sunahara's birth certificate and called it his own (HE CAN'T EVEN REMEMBER HIS OWN BIRTH DATE BECAUSE HE'S USING HER BIRTH DATE NOT HIS), his social security number originating in CT is just an anomaly, and his selective service card date stamp error is just an anomaly. Just a bunch of anomalies.. WRONG. IT'S ALL FRAUD. Anyone on FR who ascribes 'integrity' to 0bama simply doesn't 'know' him. Team 0bama are experts at Saul Alinsky tactics.. Rules for Radicals is their game. Allowing an election to take its course without nefarious intervention IS COMPLETELY FOREIGN TO THEM.
It appears that voter fraud could be stanched effectively by doing this nationally.
The congressional districts which represent the noteworthy bastions of fraud like Philadelphia, Chicago, Cleveland, etc. would only potentiate their fraud in the district in which the bastion resides without diluting the electoral turnout in more honest voting congressional districts.
Would like to see a calculation of electoral votes on the basis of this allocation model.
EV allocation would go like this: Say for instance, most of California EV's would go to Obama but not all. Most of Texas EV's would go to Romney but not all. Re-allocate throughout the US. On balance, I suspect we'd get more EV's from states Obama won than Obama would get EV's from states Romney won.
How to wrest victory from defeat:
I suspect Romney would win if even just the swing states allocated their EV's.
Or maybe if the 23 states that have (R) governors and legislatures met in emergency sessions and passed allocation before EV's are counted on Dec 17, we might win this thing after all?
We own these Governors and Legislatures: ME, MI, IN, OH PA, TN SC, GA, AL, MI, FL, LA, TX, OK, KS, ND, SD, WY, ID, UT, AZ ,P> FReegards!
Only Obama can get away with his lies. His birth certificate is an obvious fraud and he even confirmed this lie with his companion bio for his first book. It’s nothing but a “distraction” according to many, but it goes to the essence of Obama the accomplished liar.
Might be a Turing machine — I got the exact same response yesterday.
My approach is to continue to educate and inform, in the hopes that this poster, like the electorate, can be brought to a real understanding of conservative principles and critical thinking.
There is a great lack of reasoning in a lot of arguments these days. I think it is part of what makes it hard for us to win voter support.
Republicans should ask for EVERY vote, and not bypass those they think would never vote for them.
No, we all know that Obama will use all the power at his disposal to destroy America. I have long talked about his war on coal in which he harasses coal operations to raise their costs and hopefully put them out of business. As one example he uses Dept of Transportation inspections to harass the truckers carrying the coal. I have no doubt about your assessment of "Team Obama". They all know the goal and they know how to get promoted. I am sure there are rewards for the bureaucrats who do the most to shut down industry.
Where they have some difficulty is stealing elections since those are locally run. There are plenty of Team Obama members and supporter at the local level and that shows up in places like Philly where they perfected a 100% Obama vote 56 times (meaning almost 400 voters in each division made no Romney votes or Romney mistakes in each of 56 divisions). That obviously points to fraud.
There is a lot of good material on the links above, particularly regarding efforts to further weaken the voter identification and voting processes. But there are also numerous mistakes and some outright false information. There is, in short, no way the election was won fraudulently, not here in Virginia where it was close and probably not elsewhere. In my rural county there was more apathy than not among the conservative voters who were mostly ignorant about the scale of Obama's assault on America and/or not excited about Romney. Part of the latter came from Planned Parenthood who spent our tax money (while claiming not to) on anti-Romney ads on many radio stations including a country station I listen to. A lot of women turned against Romney and a fair number of men were not strongly behind him.
Spoken like a true Lib.
“Yet the Romney/rino crowd are comparing them as though Romney was not a disaster of historic proportions.”
and you and your ilk here on FR are more than thrilled that BO won his re-election as that meant your non-stop campaign against Romney here and who knows where else worked. well done, and i hope you enjoy the next 4 years of Obamanation.
God Save our Once Free Republic.
God Save our Once Free Republic.
Yet the Romney/rino crowd are comparing 2008 and his own election, as though Romney was not a disaster of historic proportions.
From my reading (and I can’t read everything, too busy), the St. Lucie County numbers are confusing because apparently there were 2 ballot cards for each voter. That said, it is obvious even from my news perusal since the election that there was massive election fraud in many states and districts.
Anyone who claims that the fraud was not enough to change any outcomes is wishfully thinking at best. There was much evidence of egregious voter fraud in many locations. At this point, the Dem party is nothing more or less than a marxist criminal gang. They break any rules they want with impunity, and the Rs act like a bunch of neutered bunny wabbits, with a few notable exceptions.
Stockholm syndrome is rampant on FR. We’re in a coup. Pretending that we are not and we can “try again” next election is pathetic and only postpones any real fight back against the illegitimate administration. (for two reasons; massive election fraud is one, and illegitimate non-legally eligible “president” the other.) Pretty soon it will be like Egypt, don’t forget that 0moslem’s good buddy in Egypt Morsi just got bunches of US tax dollars to assist in creating a hardline Muzzie dictatorship. Yesterday or so Morsi just made up new constitutional rules or whwatever granting him dictatorship powers. Look to see more and more of that, now that the “election” is over, 0moslem will be flexible.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.