Skip to comments.Out-Hustled? Michael Barone on Why So Many Failed to Predict the Reelection of Obama (VIDEO)
Posted on 11/26/2012 9:23:44 AM PST by GVnana
Many pollsters predicted a Romney win, but were proven wrong on Election Day 2012. Did pollsters fail to account for cellphone users, or did Romney fail at turning out the GOP vote? Did voter fraud play a role? Find out as Michael Barone analyzes the results of the 2012 election with Glenn Reynolds.
(Excerpt) Read more at pjtv.com ...
The only group that out-numbers the experts before an election, is the group of experts post an election.
they failed to account for voter fraud. Early voting is a blank check to whoever controls the County Recorders Office, look behind the desk at the clerk of any County Recorders office and the demographic profile is pretty consistent
Nailed it. That and voter ignorance.
“they failed to account for voter fraud.”
And they’re still at it post-election. I just heard former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee on WJR 760 AM radio speaking with program host Frank Beckman and there was not one mention of the possibility of voter/election fraud as a factor let alone the deciding factor. WTF!
Would not call Medved (or Karl Rove, or Michael Barone, or Rasmussen, or Gallup, or Charles Krauthammer, or Wayne Allyn Root and MANY others) a buffoon. Many of the finest political minds in the country who predicted Romney would win. It was based on a simple political model, “it’s the economy, stupid.”
Well——that is no longer the case. It’s now the demographics, stupid. And it’s also the free stuff, stupid. And with the Democrat Party in firm control of most of urban areas with little or no bipartisan oversight, it is also the voter fraud, stupid.
...and they are still there, ignorant, uneducated and oblivious of anything except the "walking around money" & "free stuff" supplied by the dog shit party, and they are growing. They, along with the voter fraud, just about insures them federal election wins far into the future.
America is now an official welfare state.....with welfare people in charge and will be until the crash.
Good post. Barone identfies the obsolete polling apparatus designed for landlines, not cell phones, where the polling was based on only 9% answered landlines. Barone points to the glut of large city populations of minorities that benefit democrats in the electoral college. Minorities are naturally FOR Obamacare and free stuff.
However, he also said there are 25 Republican states with Republican governors, and who also own a majority in their state houses. Republicans thus fare better at the federal level in the US House of Representatives.
Bottom line is in the messaging, particularly to Hispanics, that Republican states do better because Republican conservative fiscal ideas work. He suggested watching city, county and state levels of government and that Republicans need to get to work.
Looking at the numbers, he said voter fraud played no significant role in the outcome.
Wouldn’t doubt the obamaphone crowd received daily text messages reminding them of Romney’s evil deeds.
I wish I had said that!
Actually, IMO, it's just the stupid!
Good post. Barone identfies the obsolete polling apparatus designed for landlines, not cell phones, where the polling was based on only 9% answered landlines.The poll aggregators were dead on and their analysis was based on the polls that Barone says are broken. The people who sat around speculating on why people should vote one way or another were wrong. It should be obvious that calling people (or a representative sample of people) up and asking them how they plan to vote is a better predictor than guessing based on what you think is important.
Barone understands polling and should have known better. He's lost his credibility and now he's just pretending he made an honest mistake so he can keep raking in the sweet, sweet "pundit" cash.
its the economy, stupid.
It was the economy, but what too many voters wanted was guaranteed survival handouts rather than sacrifices that fixing the economy will require.
Exactly. The polls, particularly at the state level, were exactly right. The poll aggregators were dead on accurate. Barone was wrong, along with Karl Rove and many on the right. It isn't complicated. They refused to believe the turn out models the polls were predicting. The polls were right.
Barone understands polling and should have known better. He's lost his credibility and now he's just pretending he made an honest mistake so he can keep raking in the sweet, sweet "pundit" cash
Meh, I like Barone. Sad to see him making excuses, but I am sure he knows he blew it. He relied on a hunch, the same hunch a lot of conservative analysts did. They just refused to believe that turnout would favor the Democrats (D+ modeling) as much as the polls were suggesting. He was wrong and I'd bet he won't make such a mistake again anytime soon.
It surprised a great many people how much the “GIMME!” mentality has permeated American culture. The parasitical takers have emerged as the majority. The GOP here on out should concentrate its most serious efforts on Congressional and gubernatorial races.
Though I hoped and prayed Nate Silver was wrong, it turned out he was dead-on. Again.
In the future, I guess the standard assumption is D+6 (probably D+8 by 2016). That sounds about where the country is now.
Yep. The tipping point has come and gone. The old rules and assumptions no longer apply and all the prognostication on what went wrong won't reverse the outcome.
Yup, that's about right. There is no traditional, conservative silent majority just waiting to take the country back. Such a thing did exist to some extent at one time, not anymore. If anything, the majority of non voters probably strongly support Obama - as so many polls sampling Adults tend to show. In my view this country has passed the tipping point and is on the way down. It will take the Republicans talking about big things and big ideas to even give us a chance of turning things around. Instead of sounding the alarm and explaining why we are on the way to being Greece, conservatives are too often arguing over the size of the increase in this or that welfare program. We are not shaping the debate at all, and the electorate will become ever more Democratic as this continues.
When both parties appeal to liberals, why are we surprised that more liberals turn out?
Barone makes the mistake of looking at actual numbers, meaning facts and evidence.
This is why he can't see the obvious truth that it was all voter fraud. He's too busy looking at what actually happened to understand.
Just what is the decision basis that gamblers use; they seem to do much better than the polls?
we been rolled.....
Does anybody here doubt for a New York minute...that had Mitt Romney won the election with hundreds of precincts 100+ voting for him it would NOT be in the MSM 24/7 and in front of a judge somewhere from now until 2016?
the Pubbies are no where to be found...just crickets...
IMHO...they took the campaign donations and ran....to sit down with the rest of DC and raise our taxes...and continue to authorize stupid, corrupt spending....and continue to prosecute the war on Flyover Country by DC.