FReepathon Day 58.
Posted on 11/27/2012 2:56:31 PM PST by Colofornian
The number of Utah citizens going to the polls continues to drop. The “Salt Lake Tribune” reports that while election officials point to 80 percent voter turnout across the state, that number only reflects registered voters, and doesn’t include more than half-a-million Utahns who are eligible to vote but not registered. Overall, the number of people in the state who cast ballots in the presidential election was 57 percent. That’s basically the same number as the 2008 election, when Utah placed 9th lowest in the country in voter turnout.
So essentially Utah's socio-political worldview is largely an "opt out" one; and even when 60% Mormon Utah gets one of "their own" in there...as was the case with Mitt Romney...it doesn't increase the turnout (or registration) -- of Lds ...or other Utah residents.
And so whereas there were at least five post-Election Day threads on the false info that Evangelicals supposedly "stayed home"...which compared to both previous elections and other voting groups...they did not...Mormons apparently weren't inspired by Mitt anymore than they were McCain...
And, in fact, per Pew Forum, Lds voted a tick more for Obama in 2012 than white Evangelicals! (78-21% for Lds vs. 79-20% for white Evangelicals)
LOL! Even Mormons were disgusted with their liberal Mormon candidate.
The article’s numbers don’t make sense. I have little confidence they are correct.
This may explain why Mia Love lost. What a disappointment.
Well, I crunched the #s...you might be on to something that may place Utah more in the middle of the pack...
Per the Salt Lake Trib, as of January 2012, 23.4% of voting-eligible adults in Utah were NOT registered to vote:
One of every four Utah adults not registered to vote
In sheer numbers, that comes out to approximately 470,000 Utahns (out of 1.94 million voting eligible adults)
So, if say we cornered 1,000 perfectly representable Utahns.
At least 234 of them would not be registered (I say "at least" because that 470,000 Utahns could be 474,500 as the article used a round number)...
Of the remaining 766 of that 1,000-person pool -- all of whom are registered -- at least 153 of them didn't vote.
So 234 + 153 = 387 ... that would mean at best, Utah could have mustered no more than a 61.3% turnout...which is better than the 57% mentioned in the article.
Not sure how 61% would compare to other states...
And not sure what numbers were crunched to get the 57% figure...
At the very least, we can say that...
(a)...at least 470,000 voting-eligible Utahns are NOT registered to vote;
and (b)...at least 294,000 registered Utah voters did NOT vote in the 2012 presidential election!
That's at least 764,000 Utah residents...over 3/4 of a million!
If only 55% of them were Lds (Utah is 60% Lds), that's over 400,000 Mormons NOT voting when a Mormon ran for POTUS!
Based on extrapolating these numbers, you could easily toss in at least another 100,000 Mormons in OTHER states who likewise didn't vote...And Mitt could have drawn another half-a-million votes if he had only secured his "home base" of Mormons!
Bottom 10 in voter turnout...top 4 in well-managed...maybe the dumber voters are staying home
Let's say that Utah voters voted proportionately per their Mormon and non-Mormon status.
That would mean that of the 1.47 million Utah voters in the 2012 election, approximately 882,000 were Lds.
We know from the Pew exit polls that NATIONWIDE, 21% of Mormons voted for Obama...Even if that was less true in Utah (vs. Mormons in other states), you have about 175,000 Utah Mormons who voted for Obama...
How "smart" was that???
Perhaps the BEST spin on this from a Mormon perspective is that many Mormons didn't see Mitt as conservative...and therefore, they stayed home.
THX 1138
The base wasnt excited because the opponent picked our candidate for us.
Time to leave the Republican Party. Or more correctly they left us.
I like Utah and I have lived in Utah but its demographics simply don't reflect the country as a whole and little can be learned about national voting patterns by looking at Utah IMHO
Evangelicals on the sidelines in battleground states lose an election. Voters in a safe state not coming out any more than usual is meaningless.
Good questions. Mormons ALREADY had displayed identity politics voting patterns specific to Romney:
#1: Per this 2008 exit poll data:
Exit poll data from Tuesday's primary elections showed Utah Republican voters cared more about presidential candidates' PERSONAL QUALITIES THAN THEIR POSITIONS ON THE ISSUES, the OPPOSITE OF THE NATIONAL TREND of the national trend in Super Tuesday voting.
Source: Romney's exit disappoints strong Utah following (Feb. 7, 2008 AP/Salt Lake Tribune)
IOW in 2008 whereas the nation was voting "issues" -- Utah voted per the "personal" personality characteristics of Romney, a fellow Mormon!
#2...Then, 'twas rather interesting that 94-95% of Mormons in both Utah and Nevada voted for Romney in 2008...[Nevada is 8% Mormon & a much higher pool % of Nevada Republicans]:
* 2008 (Utah) "While the former Massachusetts governor’s faith has been a flashpoint in his campaign, it was perhaps one of his strongest assets in Utah, where more than 60% of the state’s residents share his faith. Exit poll data shows Romney swept voters across the board, handily winning every social, economic, and generational demographic in the state, as well as 94% of all Mormon voters." (Susan Davis, Wall Street Journal, Feb. 5, 2008, Romney Wins Utah With Help From Friends [Note: The Wall Street Journal was citing MSNBC.msn.com...]
* 2008 (Nevada): Per the Mormon Church, Mormons make up about 7.5% of Nevada's population. But according to the entrance polls so far, a whopping 25% of those who participated in the state's GOP caucuses are Mormons. And 94% of those people went with Romney.
Source: Nevada Mormons turn out for Romney (Mark Murray, MSNBC, Jan. 19, 2008)
* 2008 (Arizona and Nevada): In the Nevada Republican caucuses last cycle, entrance polls found that a quarter — 26 percent — of participants were Mormons and 95 percent supported Romney. He won the state handily. The numbers were also impressive in Arizona, where exit polls showed 11 percent of voters were Mormon and 88 percent of them voted for Romney...
Source: Mitt Romney’s Mormon firewall
* 2012 (Nevada): According to exit polls conducted for the Associated Press, nine of 10 Mormon voters in Nevada supported Romney.
Source: Paul seeks to attract Mormon voters in Nevada GOP contest
Of course, the above was largely Republican Mormon voters...showing that Romney failed to draw the crossover Mormon Democrat and Mormon independent voters!
Since Evangelicals turned out at least as well and even better than the previous two POTUS elections...why not "mainline Protestants" on sidelines or "Catholics" on sidelines?
Both of those groups declined significantly in 2012. White Catholics went from 19% of the 2008 pool to 18% in 2012...even tho the voting-age population went up!
So, shouldn't you be broader in that net you're casting?
(Hey I should sick those FReepers who were contending that "every vote counts" and a "mandate" is helped via a higher vote count...as well as those FREEPERs urging others NOT to vote third party in obvious blue and red states...there were plenty who would disagree with your above assertion, even if I recognize what you're saying here)
Conservatives can opt out in disgust...but they cannot hide.
Didn't she run against a white and delightsome, male, Mormon candidate? That might explain some of it.
mormons are identity voters. They voted for Romney at about 95%.
obama won by more than 4.5 million plus votes (still counting) and by estimates three million ‘evangelicals’ stayed home, so even if they had all voted for Romney he still would have lost.
Romney lost because he was a terrible candidate.
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