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A Ray of Hope?
Pew ^ | 11-27-12 | Behind the Blue Wall

Posted on 11/27/2012 3:51:32 PM PST by Behind the Blue Wall

In the wake of the 2012 election, it is clear that the demographic challenges facing the Republican Party are serious. The populations that tend to vote Democrat are increasing their share of the electorate, while the share of the electorate that tends to vote Republican is decreasing. With the GOP now falling all over themselves to promote amnesty, this trend threatens to only intensify.

On the other hand, the Democrats will for the foreseeable future be reliant on a vote split in minority communities that is basically tribal in nature. There is no way in hell that 100% of blacks in 57 precincts in Philadelphia actually believe in the Democratic platform. Many of them are simply voting for Democrats because they perceive that the Democrats are for blacks and the Republicans are for whites. If there is ever a time when nonwhite groups begin to freely consider whether they agree more with Republicans than Democrats based on their respective platforms, as opposed to identity politics, I don't believe that the Democrats will get 80 and 90+ percent of any particular group. Taking race out of the equation, within any given group of people there will always be some more liberal, some more conservative.

As I was perusing an analysis of the 2012 exit surveys by Pew, I did see a very small ray of hope that we may one day see such a situation evolve. According to Pew, nearly 20% of black men aged 18-29 voted for Romney instead of Obama. Given that Obama got 96% of the black vote overall, I would consider this rather notable. And this is a significant movement: Obama took 95% of that same group in 2008.

If this were black men aged 65+, I might not be so heartened. But these are young people, the future. If twenty percent of young black men could be persuaded to vote against a black President, with an admittedly weak Republican candidate who did not campaign at all for their votes, you have to believe that that number could be pushed much higher with a good GOP candidate running against a non-black Democrat. And given that people tend to become more conservative as they age, not vice-versa, it stands to reason that twenty percent GOP will be the baseline for this particular cohort of blacks.

If the GOP can add a few more points to that as they move into their taxpaying, family-rearing years, and up that to even 30% on a consistent basis, and then add to that even a slightly better split with black women (Obama took 98% of black women aged 19-29 in 2012!) that would translate into a 20% share of the overall black vote, more than sufficient to put a serious crack in the foundation of the Democrat national electoral coalition.

Hopefully, in the coming weeks and months, someone will pick up on this mini-trend and find out what's going on there, and whether it can be built on in some way.


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: blacks; men; patterns; voting

1 posted on 11/27/2012 3:51:43 PM PST by Behind the Blue Wall
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To: Behind the Blue Wall

My apologies, I think I failed to properly identify this post as a vanity, even though there is a link. The text is not from Pew, but my own.


2 posted on 11/27/2012 3:55:46 PM PST by Behind the Blue Wall
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To: Behind the Blue Wall

“The populations that tend to vote Democrat are increasing their share of the electorate...”

Those who subsist on administrative largesse seek to possess the property of the productive by government seizure in exchange for their votes.

The productive elements of society, meanwhile, can obviously support everyone else only until they are bankrupted, at which point the whole society crumbles.

However, we cannot expect the dunderheads with their hands out either to diminish their hunger for the funds of their neighbors or to learn from the lessons of history.

This same system of government brought down Russia and China, and will bring down the United States in due course.

Our enemies foreign and domestic are laughing themselves silly as we stumble and fall.


3 posted on 11/27/2012 4:11:37 PM PST by Jack Hammer
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To: Behind the Blue Wall

When the enemy has a strong coalition you fall back to the decade plan. Cao Cao in the famous historical novel Romance of the Three Kingdoms was defeated by forces led by Liu Bei and the Southern Kingdom in the famous battle for the Red Cliffs. Cao Cao pulled back to the north and stayed put for nearly ten years. The forces that defeat him start to fight amongst themselves over a city/province that overlapped the two former ally kingdoms. Eventually the coalition broke and then Cao Cao made his move after Liu Bei was badly defeated in his invasion of his former ally Southern Kingdom.
We do not compromise, we need to pull back, rebuild and wait. Dems have two fissures. Black vs Latino and Jews vs Arabs. Blacks and Latino will unite if their enemy is whitey. Take whitey away and the blacks and latinos will fight over entitlements and power. Just look at Los Angeles public schools. Fights break out every day. In Latino run areas, black student gets suspended and latino gets detention. Vice versa in black run schools. Latinos think blacks are lazy and blacks feel latino are foreignors taking over everything. The Jewish and Arab fight is even more amusing. Jews think being more multi cultural will win good will from Arabs. But Arabs are still seething from Israel and will never accept the Jews even if they criticize Israeli policy on the Palestinians. At 3 percent of the US population, the Arabs in terms of numbers are equal to number of Jews in the US. What will happen when the Arab population is at 5 percent? If the Jews cannot vote for the GOP they better migrate to Israel, because the Dem party will cater to the larger numerous Arabs.


4 posted on 11/27/2012 4:21:00 PM PST by Fee
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To: Behind the Blue Wall
According to Pew, nearly 20% of black men aged 18-29 voted for Romney instead of Obama.

Didn't see it, can you link to the specific page or report?

5 posted on 11/27/2012 4:33:14 PM PST by palmer (Jim, please bill me 50 cents for this completely useless post)
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To: palmer
Fox has it at 91 to 8 for all blacks at 18-29 but higher for black women than black men of all ages. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012-exit-poll?intcmp=related So it is possible Obama could have lost the votes of those young black men. Perhaps he does not fool all of them.
6 posted on 11/27/2012 4:44:54 PM PST by palmer (Jim, please bill me 50 cents for this completely useless post)
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To: Fee

Yeah, it’s probably true that the GOP will have to just play the role of the minority opposition for a period of time until the Democratic coalition tears itself apart.


7 posted on 11/27/2012 5:11:01 PM PST by Behind the Blue Wall
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To: palmer
According to Pew, nearly 20% of black men aged 18-29 voted for Romney instead of Obama. Didn't see it, can you link to the specific page or report?

My apologies, I think I posted the wrong the link. This should be right: http://www.people-press.org/2012/11/26/young-voters-supported-obama-less-but-may-have-mattered-more/ The information is in a chart about halfway down the page.

8 posted on 11/27/2012 5:18:00 PM PST by Behind the Blue Wall
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To: Behind the Blue Wall

When the opposition catches a clue and runs as the “above racism and sexism” party the focus can go to the fact that it is the Democrats who are and always have been the racists. Radical feminism has nothing to do with true American values. Feminism, yes. That goes to the success of people such as Jeanne Kirkpatrick, C. Rice, and the multitude of conservative writers and pundits.


9 posted on 11/27/2012 5:20:21 PM PST by stanne
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