Unfortunately, with the redistricting, I don’t see the 3rd congressional district going GOP again anytime soon - much of eastern Jefferson County was drawn out of it which is a conservative area. Even before that it was a difficult district ... the fact that Anne Northup held it for 10 years was extraordinary.
Kerry (and before him, Gore) barely carried it, it was a 2 point margin both times.
It's tough, it took a big swing to Obama, but in a good year we could win it again.
I’m expecting the GOP won’t have control of redistricting in KY until 2021 (they’ll probably get the House by 2014 and the Governorship in 2015, 2019 at the latest). I don’t know whether the state will drop to 5 seats by 2022, however. If it does, that almost guarantees the Louisville seat will be split up and the GOP will win the entire delegation.
The only other district aside from Louisville that would’ve been troublesome was the old 7th in the union/coal Dem counties in the east, held for decades by the Perkins’s. But it seems that, like WV (for which not a single solitary county voted Democrat for President, unprecedented in the modern era), it is slowly moving back to the GOP (which it partly was prior to FDR, as WV was from the 1890s until 1932). Hal Rogers, albeit a porker, has put it back pretty well in our corner after his old 5th heavily GOP seat was merged with the 7th to create what was a marginal seat after 1992.