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To: Republican Wildcat; Impy; AuH2ORepublican

I’m expecting the GOP won’t have control of redistricting in KY until 2021 (they’ll probably get the House by 2014 and the Governorship in 2015, 2019 at the latest). I don’t know whether the state will drop to 5 seats by 2022, however. If it does, that almost guarantees the Louisville seat will be split up and the GOP will win the entire delegation.

The only other district aside from Louisville that would’ve been troublesome was the old 7th in the union/coal Dem counties in the east, held for decades by the Perkins’s. But it seems that, like WV (for which not a single solitary county voted Democrat for President, unprecedented in the modern era), it is slowly moving back to the GOP (which it partly was prior to FDR, as WV was from the 1890s until 1932). Hal Rogers, albeit a porker, has put it back pretty well in our corner after his old 5th heavily GOP seat was merged with the 7th to create what was a marginal seat after 1992.


14 posted on 11/28/2012 11:31:49 PM PST by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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To: fieldmarshaldj; Republican Wildcat; Impy

KY will stay at 6 Representatives after 2020.

The KY-03 is like 20% black, and Louisville seems to be going the way of other largish cities in the South (not sure if Yankee transplants are to blame). The CD could be made a bit more Republican by adding the Republican suburban counties currently in KY-04 and placing working-class Dem precincts in Louisville in the KY-02, but even then it would still be marginal.

Regarding the KY-05 having the most heavily Dem coal counties from the old KY-07, the Democrats got so darn greedy in 1990 that they tried to win all 6 CDs (even the Republican-packed Ky-04 was stripped of the GOP east side of Louisville to try to defeat Bunning) instead of drawing two super-safe GOP CDs (one from East Louisville to the Cinci suburbs, the other combining Rogers’s most Republican counties with GOP counties in the Lexington and Bowling Green areas), and four Dem-leaning CDs, that they ended up with only one of six CDs for most of the past 20 years. A cautionary tale for Republicans trying to draw 6 GOP CDs in KY. The optimal map for the GOP would combine Dem parts of Louisville with Frankfort, Lexington and Dem coal counties, leaving the other five CDs pretty safely GOP, but the geography would be tough to pull off and it would be a gerrymander of unseemly proportions (black Louisvillians in the same snake-like CD as coal miners?).


19 posted on 11/29/2012 2:45:41 AM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: fieldmarshaldj; Republican Wildcat; Impy
Re: the coal counties in the Perkinses' old KY-07, 2012 was the first real sign of movement I've seen towards the GOP, and it cannot be discounted that if the Democrats don't nominate an elitist, pro-gay-marriage, pro-abortion, virulently anti-coal black Chicago Democrat next time they will return to the Democrat fold. After all, John Kerry actually did better in many of those counties in 2004 than Gore did in 2000, perhaps due to John Edwards's populism.

It should be noted that not every county in the region is ancestrally Democrat: Martin and Johnson Counties stayed overwhelmingly Republican through the New Deal and until today (although Clinton did very well there and even carried Martin in 1996 and Johnson twice thanks to Perot), and Lawrence County has leaned Republican through the years (with a few exceptions).

Here's the 2012 map (with proper Republican Blue and Communist Red). Only Elliott County voted for Obama in Coal Country, but he got under 50%, as compared to the 61% he got in 2008 and the 70% that Kerry got in 2004:

Here's the 2008 map, with four coal counties going for Obama:

Here's 2004, when Kerry carried all but one of the ancestrally Democrat counties in the region (Morgan County, where he got 48%, 4% better than Gore):

And here's 2000, with Gore doing very well in the SE KY counties along the VA and TN borders (many of those were in Rogers's CD even before 1992, right, DJ?), but not as well as Kerry would in the core Coal Country counties:

Just like the fact that every single county in WV voted Republican for president this year (perhaps the only time it's ever happened, although Lincon may have done it in 1864, WV's first presidential election; even in 1972, when Nixon had a larger margin in WV than did Romney, McGovern carried Logan County 51%-49%) does not mean that Demcorats can't win House races in WV (as proven by Nick Joe Rahall, who won once again in the WV-03), KY Coal Country abandoning Obama in 2012 may be an ephemeral realignment, or no realignment at all. If we can stick those coal counties that voted for Kerry in 2004 in the same district as Lafayette (which keeps getting more Democrat), Frankfort (ditto--Franklin County was one of only nine (IIRC) to vote for McCain in 2008 and Obama in 2012) and Democrat parts of Louisville, it will allow us to draw five safe GOP House districts for perpetuity. 5 out of 6 is 83%--I'll take it.

22 posted on 11/29/2012 5:09:17 AM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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