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Analyst Makes Bombshell Prediction Of $50 Oil, More Production Than Possibly Know What To Do With
Business Insider ^ | December 1, 2012 | Joe Weisenthal

Posted on 12/04/2012 12:02:23 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

For the US economy, this would be a 'Black Swan' of a totally different variety.

In Bank of America/Merrill Lynch's 2013 Energy Outlook, analyst Sabine Schels and colleagues make a shocking prediction about the possible path of West Texas Intermediate oil.

Surging US shale oil output creates risk of $50 WTI North America’s energy supplies are surging while the rest of the world continues to fight for scarce molecules of oil and gas. On our estimates, onshore US crude oil output now vastly exceeds previous growth rates in liquids and nat gas, particularly in Lower 48 states. With profitability for US domestic oil producers very high and no change in sight to US rules preventing crude oil exports, we expect WTI prices to continue to lag international prices. Indeed, we see a risk of WTI temporarily falling to $50/bbl over the next 24 months to force a slowdown in supply growth or a change in crude oil export rules.

A key point that Schels & Co. make is that the crude oil market could come to resemble the Natural Gas market. In the natural gas market, the US has natural gas coming out of its ears, as it just has way more supply coming out of the ground than it could possibly use or export. So while prices remain decent throughout much of the world, domestic natural gas prices have collapsed...

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: economy; gas; oil; shale
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1 posted on 12/04/2012 12:02:36 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Abundant gasoline at economical prices?

Sorry, not in keeping with the Obama Plan to destroy the nation and bring on the Great People’s Cultural Revolution.

Obama will find a way to f*ck it up somehow, never fear.


2 posted on 12/04/2012 12:10:52 AM PST by Jack Hammer
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Well heck, guess GM will have to figure a way to retrofit a big block V8 into the Chevy Volt.
A 442 in a Volt might sell.
3 posted on 12/04/2012 12:16:46 AM PST by The Cajun (Sarah Palin, Mark Levin......Nuff said.)
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To: Jack Hammer

First thing that came to my mind too!


4 posted on 12/04/2012 12:17:02 AM PST by notaliberal (We are all communist's now!)
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To: notaliberal

Great minds think alike ;-)


5 posted on 12/04/2012 12:23:25 AM PST by Jack Hammer
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Here in California, CARB will just require 4 summer formulas and 4 winter formulas, causing the refineries constant shortages of the right formula. Easy $5/gallon gas.

It will be just like the shirts in the Eastwood Movie Heartbreak Ridge. The refiners will never be able to guess the California formula-of-the-month.


6 posted on 12/04/2012 12:23:54 AM PST by Freedom_Is_Not_Free (Free goodies for all -- Freedom for none.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Just a thought, since we do have so much natural gas, why hasn’t someone built a car that will run on it and set up filling stations for them? Probably a stupid question, but I wouldn’t mind seeing gasoline dropping down to about a $1 a gallon. I can remember when it was .25 cents per gallon and sometimes cheaper than that. Anyone else remember Gas wars before they outlawed them?


7 posted on 12/04/2012 12:26:01 AM PST by calex59
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Makes me laugh that GE sold it’s plastic division because they couldn’t compete with the low cost oil and gas in the middle east. They sold it to an Middle East Company to move the production to China and the Middle East.

Over a 1000 lost their jobs because of the peak oil theory.


8 posted on 12/04/2012 12:27:19 AM PST by dila813
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To: calex59

When I was in high school I was paying 13.9 cents/gal. for premium.

It only rose to 26.9 until 1974.


9 posted on 12/04/2012 12:33:49 AM PST by dalereed
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To: dalereed

I remember my mother storming out of an Chevron station exclaiming that she’d never pay 32 cents a gallon.


10 posted on 12/04/2012 12:40:20 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (I'll raise $2million for Sarah Palin's presidential run. What'll you do?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Obama's dearly loved alternative energy corporate welfare programs have had another leg cut from under them. Lowering conventional energy prices only make Obama's favored energy source far less competive.

In a perfect world Obama would be cutting all of his funding of green energy programs to avoid the fiscal cliff.

11 posted on 12/04/2012 12:41:07 AM PST by monocle
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To: calex59

Civic Natural Gas
http://automobiles.honda.com/civic-natural-gas/


12 posted on 12/04/2012 12:41:59 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (I'll raise $2million for Sarah Palin's presidential run. What'll you do?)
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To: The Cajun
A 442 in a Volt might sell.

A "442" is not an engine, it's a car. It's pronounced "four four two", and not "four forty two". The engine in a 1970 4-4-2 was a 455 cube monster. The 4-4-2 designation originally represented 4 barrel carb, 4 speed transmission, and dual exhaust.

13 posted on 12/04/2012 12:42:19 AM PST by BRK
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To: calex59

Yep I do remember gas wars. I remember gas at less than $1 per gallon. I also remember propane tanks conversions for cars when gasoline got too expensive.

I am thinking that natural gas is not readily available. It usually comes directly into the house doesn’t it? Propane is delivered and stored in tanks at peoples homes, and sold in tanks for bbq grills etc. So it didn’t take long for conversion kits to come along using propane back then.

Not sure how you could get natural gas, even if there was a conversion kit.

I think that an E85 conversion kit exits that will allow a car to run on 100% ethanol to 100% gasoline, and any mixture in between. If the government would permit it, people could make their own ethanol to run the car out of corn or other biomass.

It’s the same process as making moonshine, basically. However, government doesn’t want people to be able to be self-sufficient, they want them to have to buy fuel for cars, and booze to drink.


14 posted on 12/04/2012 12:43:04 AM PST by greeneyes (Moderation in defense of your country is NO virtue. Let Freedom Ring.)
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To: BRK; The Cajun


15 posted on 12/04/2012 12:53:45 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (I'll raise $2million for Sarah Palin's presidential run. What'll you do?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The EPA will mandate use of fuel blends specifically designed to destroy the engines of existing vehicles most likely to benefit from these abundant new domestic sources.


16 posted on 12/04/2012 1:07:23 AM PST by clearcarbon
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To: dalereed

I started driving in 1976. Many a time had to raid the ashtray of quarters to buy gas. Made it from Duluth to Minneapolis a few times on that loose change. And even younger, riding my bike down to the gas station to fill up a 2.5 gallon can for the go-cart or fishing boat was well within the range of a 10-year old with a lemonade stand.


17 posted on 12/04/2012 1:21:56 AM PST by 21twelve (So I [God] gave them over to their stubborn hearts to follow their own devices. Psalm 81:12)
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To: calex59

It was done in the 70s as a response to the oil crises. Turns out it only works for fleet vehicles working a set radius or route. And it’s still used that way (with some shortcomings) for fleets all over the US.

However - after a number of ‘genius’ individuals blew up entire city blocks trying to rig up home filling stations and a number of cars were involved in incidents that killed everyone in a 100’ radius because of tank ruptures and improper maintenance, it was filed away as a bad idea for the vehicle population as a whole.


18 posted on 12/04/2012 1:54:15 AM PST by Spktyr (Overwhelmingly superior firepower and the willingness to use it is the only proven peace solution.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Abundant domestic supply and low prices mean the shattering of OPEC control over the US, the defunding of many Middle East sponsored projects, and best of all - the Middle East suddenly becomes someone else’s problem. Like Europe’s.


19 posted on 12/04/2012 1:57:25 AM PST by Spktyr (Overwhelmingly superior firepower and the willingness to use it is the only proven peace solution.)
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To: calex59

I saw a natural gas filling station in Utah.


20 posted on 12/04/2012 2:01:01 AM PST by Royal Wulff
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Drilling will shut down long before $50. Depletion curves on newly produced horizontal wells tend to be pretty steep for the first year, usually settling out at 20% of IP. The problem is self curing, but the remaining economy doesn't need the hit--or the price increases which will follow.

For every bust, there is another boom when the price goes up.

21 posted on 12/04/2012 2:10:32 AM PST by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing)
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To: dalereed

They had high school back then?


22 posted on 12/04/2012 2:12:00 AM PST by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing)
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To: Jack Hammer

If it gets to $50 per barrel BO will tax it at $50 per barrel or find some insect that needs protection that’s only found in shale oil areas.


23 posted on 12/04/2012 2:19:18 AM PST by maddog55 (America Rising.... Civil War II)
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To: Smokin' Joe; dalereed

Strictly speaking, we called it “High Cave”.


24 posted on 12/04/2012 2:27:03 AM PST by DuncanWaring (The Lord uses the good ones; the bad ones use the Lord.)
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To: DuncanWaring; dalereed
I missed that phase, we had High Hut...(8^D)

(I'm just kidding dale--I have 6 great grandkids myself, and I remember when a dollar's worth would get you around for the weekend.)

25 posted on 12/04/2012 2:32:44 AM PST by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing)
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To: monocle
Lowering conventional energy prices only make Obama's favored energy source far less competive.

No, it just means that Obama will double down on restrictions on drilling, production, and refining, and the price will go up or at best, stay the same for the refined product.

26 posted on 12/04/2012 2:37:25 AM PST by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing)
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To: calex59

They are starting to be built. In one particular instance I just saw the other day, they are about to complete a new NG filling island with several stations at a Fleet fueling station that has been there for several years servicing gas and diesel for commercial fleet accounts.

It does not technically require much as many forklifts in the early 80’s were converted to propane from gasoline as a means to cut the fumes in warehouses. I recall they ran a little cooler as well.


27 posted on 12/04/2012 2:51:10 AM PST by mazda77
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Oil at $50 = Depression.


28 posted on 12/04/2012 2:55:02 AM PST by gotribe
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To: mazda77
It does not technically require much as many forklifts in the early 80’s were converted to propane from gasoline as a means to cut the fumes in warehouses. I recall they ran a little cooler as well.

Yes, I worked for a company, a plywood plant, that used them, the small and middle sized ones used propane and the larger ones used Diesel.

29 posted on 12/04/2012 3:06:06 AM PST by calex59
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To: calex59

They have them and are building them with NO help from the goobermint. IF Obama told the truth about trying to achieve energy independence we would already have this on every highway. The markets are building them as fast as money allows. Look up Westport Innovations and Clean Energy stock symbols WPRT and CLNE.


30 posted on 12/04/2012 3:07:09 AM PST by BipolarBob (Riding my stick horse yelling "Woop woop whopm Gangnam Style" & grinning like an idiot.)
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To: Jack Hammer

all hail the wet blanket of globull warming


31 posted on 12/04/2012 3:26:26 AM PST by HiTech RedNeck (How long before all this "fairness" kills everybody, even the poor it was supposed to help???)
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To: calex59
Just a thought, since we do have so much natural gas, why hasn’t someone built a car that will run on it and set up filling stations for them? Probably a stupid question, but I wouldn’t mind seeing gasoline dropping down to about a $1 a gallon. I can remember when it was .25 cents per gallon and sometimes cheaper than that. Anyone else remember Gas wars before they outlawed them?

* Gobs of approved conversion companies out their like Roush, it is expensive.
* Their is an apporved home refuel device called the "Phil", but it is like $4000.
* I read over on GreenCarCongress of a research project of a free piston electric driven pump to fill your car that would have a $500 price point if gone commercial, that would be a game changer.
* With the EPA being so anal with emissions they forced the big 6 into things like direct injection in conjunction with turbocharging. With that said supplanting a Gaseous Injector in place of the Gasoline would allow even higher turbo-boost or compression ratios given the fuels octane for a series of win-wins.
* With that said, I can't see how they stop that at some-point, smaller engines, more power, cleaner.

Also Good Westport (LPG injectors etc), and Pilot Fuels 150 filling stations for LPG for Trucks. IMHO their is a gaseous fuel revolution coming, the question is does Commander Oboingo stop it....

32 posted on 12/04/2012 3:45:27 AM PST by taildragger (( Tighten the 5 point harness and brace for Impact Freepers, ya know it's coming..... ))
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To: calex59
"Just a thought, since we do have so much natural gas, why hasn’t someone built a car that will run on it and set up filling stations for them?"

I thought the same thing. I checked out the cost of conversion kits and I found prices around 4-5K a car which seemed rather high.

33 posted on 12/04/2012 3:51:33 AM PST by Average Al
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I still have a few contacts in the energy business.

This is all speculation, but it is informed speculation. The thing to remember is that it all depends on the EPA giving the green light.


34 posted on 12/04/2012 3:55:34 AM PST by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: calex59

NG is a decent fuel, but your range is shorter and you are driving around with a large pressurized tank.

When I was working in New Mexico, you would see some NG trucks. The locals used them for shorter trips, and had a newer gas car for longer ones.


35 posted on 12/04/2012 3:59:31 AM PST by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: All

Thanks to all of you for the responses to my query about Natural Gas conversions on cars. FR has the smartest people in the world, at least IMO, for members.


36 posted on 12/04/2012 4:00:18 AM PST by calex59
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

In a rational market, as the price of oil as traded is LESS than the cost of extracting and transporting it, the well would simply be shut down.

So the Current Regime in the White Hut is faced with the necessity of INCREASING the costs of production on ALL oil and natural gas sources, either by burdensome regulation, or application of taxes in such strategic manner that the producers must pass through these costs to consumers.

Up to now, the Current Regime has had little difficulty in imposing these additional costs of production, through rules on the generation of carbon dioxide in excess of some theoretical and completely arbitrary standard, resulting on the imposing of fines or taxes, or of other POTENTIAL (but unproven) impacts on the environment.

And a direct increase of taxes on the consumer at point of purchase, such as fuel dispensed for motor vehicles, or electricity to run home and industry, is always a dream for the Current Regime, providing them with the means to control and direct the internal workings of the entire country. They get to pick the winners and losers, but in the end, they pick only the losers. The winners are happy accidents that gain through either falling through the cracks in the regulatory network, or have been purposfully ignored by the successors to the Current Regime.

In short, anti-growth measures, taken not to “conserve” anything, but to thwart any expression whatsoever of the principles of capitalism.


37 posted on 12/04/2012 4:03:33 AM PST by alloysteel (Bronco Bama - the cowboy who whooped up and widened the stampede.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Is Schels a retired billionaire or just another one of the 50,000+ financial analysts making a prediction?

Prediction: Oil will be either more or less than $50 one year from now.


38 posted on 12/04/2012 4:11:21 AM PST by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: calex59

http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel_library/methane_bate.html

CHICKEN MANURE FUEL: “Put a chicken in your tank” may never match the zap of Esso’s “Put a tiger in your tank” slogan. But British inventor, Harold Bate, will tell you you that chicken power will run a car faster, cleaner, and better than gasoline.

Bate has found a way of converting chicken droppings to gas — and runs his automobile on it.

By processing methane gas from rotted chicken manure and feeding it to the engine through a special device he invented, Bate says, he has managed to drive his 1953 Hillman at speeds up to 75 m.p.h. without the use of gasoline.

At his farmhouse in Devon, Bate, 62, told an ENQUIRER reporter:

“This is the thing of the future... all you need is a couple of buckets of manure, a tin drum and my carburetor conversion device, and you’re in business.”

Bate’s “chicken coupe” has been investigated and upheld by the British Ministry of Transport.

“We’ve looked into it,” Frank Standing, information officer for the ministry told the ENQUIRER, “and the device works perfectly.

“However, as to mass use, that seems doubtful. There is simply not enough of a supply of chicken manure to provide fuel for autos on a mass basis.”

Bate says he has been running his car and five-ton truck on the methane gas - as well as heating his home with it - for years.

“The method is really very simple,” Bate, said. “You just put about three buckets of manure into a sealed oil drum. Put a small oil heater under the drum to keep the manure at a steady 80 degrees.

“There are two microbes in the manure which, when heated, eat each other - this produces the gas.

“You can collect the gas in bottles or in plastic balloons for storage. Then all you do is feed the methane through an adapter into your carburetor - and you’ve got chicken power.

“I keep replenishing my manure supply. I run my car for about six months before I clean out the tank and start with fresh dung.”

Bate said the conversion from gasoline to methane power can be made in two hours and requires no special tools. The only engine alteration required is the installation of Bate’s patented device which feeds the methane from the bottle to the carburetor.

The gas, sucked into the engine by the cylinders, is ignited in the usual manner by the spark plugs to produce power.

Methane is not only cheap and efficient, said the inventor, but it is better for your car - no carbon deposit on your cylinders and no engine wear and no poisonous carbon monoxide fumes.

(From NATIONAL ENQUIRER June 1970)


39 posted on 12/04/2012 4:13:27 AM PST by weezel
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To: Smokin' Joe

I thought people rode horses to school back then?


40 posted on 12/04/2012 4:15:03 AM PST by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: Average Al

$4-5K per car is a matter of deleting a goodly part of the options list. Some sound systems come to almost that much, and strictly speaking, a hand-held transistor radio provides a similar basic function.

But then, I come from an era when an AM radio was an extra-cost option, and air conditioning was unheard of.

It all comes down to what one considers to be vital to continued existence. Getting from Point A to Point B at a less expensive per-mile cost is much more important than the most recent playlist as reported by MTV.

Or even tweeting from the convenience of the driver’s seat.


41 posted on 12/04/2012 4:17:15 AM PST by alloysteel (Bronco Bama - the cowboy who whooped up and widened the stampede.)
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To: alloysteel

The 4-5K figured just seemed high to me to convert a car to natural or propane gas. I grew up driving junkers where a 4 or 8 track tape or an aftermarket FM adapter was a cool modification. A/C was a J.C. Whitney fan/defroster. :-)


42 posted on 12/04/2012 4:24:16 AM PST by Average Al
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Have no fear the prices will continue to grow as our corrupt politicians figure out different ways to keep their fingers in the pie.


43 posted on 12/04/2012 4:30:28 AM PST by kenmcg (scapegoat)
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To: Jack Hammer

Poert Stansberry the “Obama’s third term guy” has been remarkably prescient in his predictions.

He is saying that the US will be exporting oil and that the US treasurey will be so flush with cash whereby Obama can spread the wealth such that he can get the 22nd amendment reapealed (which I doubt).

Right now all of our terminals are set up for import not export. Which should be the right thing. Keep our domestic energy supplies for us and not export them. Let the rest of the world fend for themselves.


44 posted on 12/04/2012 4:38:43 AM PST by Ouderkirk (Democrats...the party of Slavery, Segregation, Sodomy, and Sedition)
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To: calex59
Anyone else remember Gas wars before they outlawed them?

Sure do. Didn't know they were outlawed. They were frequent in San Diego in the mid-fifties. And gas dropped to under 20c/gallon on occasion: A boon for high school students who could put a buck's worth into the jalopy and be cruisin' for a few days. They don't call them "the good old days" for nothing.

45 posted on 12/04/2012 5:07:49 AM PST by luvbach1 (We are finished.)
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To: BRK

You receive great pleasure correcting people in public.


46 posted on 12/04/2012 5:09:27 AM PST by LFOD (Formerly - Iraq, Afgahnistan - back home in Dixie.)
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To: calex59

LNG trucks and CNG cars & trucks are on the way.

Ford has a lineup of pickups (CNG); Honda has a CNG car; GE has just come out with a fueling system/pump for CNG. GM has CNG trucks.

Chesapeake is supplying the CNG for GE. Ford has just contracted with GE to make available the GE (CNG in a box) system to fleet CNG buyers.

Clean energy is creating a transnational CNG/LNG interstate corridor of fueling stations. Westport Innovations has fueling systems/engines that use CNG and partnerships with Ford,GM VOlvo, CAT, others. So CNG/LNG engines can be offered as original equipment.

Natural gas is on the way...2013 will be a huge year for the uptake of nat gas as a transportation fuel.


47 posted on 12/04/2012 5:21:36 AM PST by Triple (Socialism denies people the right to the fruits of their labor, and is as abhorrent as slavery)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Comments?

Yes. nobama will NEVER let this happen. $6/gal gasoline is a must have to further drive our country towards being a Turd World Banana Republic.

48 posted on 12/04/2012 5:32:05 AM PST by upchuck (America's at an awkward stage. Too late to work within the system, too early to shoot the bastards.)
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To: central_va
I thought people rode horses to school back then?

We did. And it was all uphill. Both ways.

49 posted on 12/04/2012 5:45:38 AM PST by upchuck (America's at an awkward stage. Too late to work within the system, too early to shoot the bastards.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

As it approaches $50, the drilling is going to slow way down. When the drilling doesn't keep up with the fast falling production rates from these tight formations, the inland supply in the US is going to fall and the price will stabilize higher than $50. That price just will not support the continued investment in places like the Bakken, Eagle Ford and other shale formations.

50 posted on 12/04/2012 5:58:23 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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