Skip to comments.ROSENBERG: One Of The Most Reliable Economic Indicators Peaked In July (Eating Out)
Posted on 12/05/2012 9:48:16 AM PST by blam
ROSENBERG: One Of The Most Reliable Economic Indicators Peaked In July
December 5, 2012
When the official headline economic indicators don't work, savvy investors turn to the unconventional economic indicators.
In his latest Breakfast With Dave note, David Rosenberg visits a signal being sent by the restaurant sector:
EATING OUT IS OUT
Our hedge fund desk has always told me that among the most reliable cyclical indicators for the American consumers is the restaurant sector. Traffic is slowing down precipitously and the companies are issuing negative guidance.
I took a look at the monthly details from the latest PCE data and saw that in nominal dollars, consumer spending on eating out sagged 0.4% in October and has contracted now in three of the past four months. The YoY trend peaked at +5.7% in July and has since slowed to +4.4% which is the softest pace in eight months (the three-month trend which a year ago was running at 7.5% at an annual rate is now close to stall-speed of 2%).
As a sign that families are becoming more cautious in their spending and eating habits, grocery shopping is up in two of the past three months and at double the trend (at4%) of the restaurant industry.
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan has argued that the economy went into recession in mid-2012. This evidence seems to support that thesis.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
I don't ever eat breakfast. (I know that breakfast is touted as the most important meal of the day)
It’s just my wife and I at home now so we eat out more than we should. I also entertain customers while when travelling so I see a lot of restaurants and a good cross section of Quality from Morton’s to Applebees and I can tell you that dining out is waaaaaay down. My wife and I stopped in at an Applebee’s last Friday night about 8:30 and were the only people in the joint the entire time it took to eat our dinner.
It seems like restaurants have really jacked their prices since this past summer. If you mix in high gas prices and higher food prices something has to be cut?
You should eat your breakfast. Today, my breakfast consisted of a coke and a slice of Mrs. Smith’s apple pie.
The last time was when we had some company in from out of town and went to our local Diner.
While it was pretty full, it was during the "specials" hour, which gets you more for your money.
We just cannot afford to go out and eat like we used too.
I remember up until just a couple of years ago, any and every semi special occasion off to Red Lobster we would go.
Now we can't afford to go even for like Veterans day.
Thanks for that Ubama, making us like the rest of the world, I so wanted to live like they do in Chad. I hope you burn in hell.
No surprise. Maybe the public is finally realizing that the cost of dining out has gone sky-high over the past years. I have watched the casual restaurant check for two people over the past several years balloon from around $17 including tax and tip to around $32 to $36 today, here in California. Just in the past year alone, that check size has increased by at least $5 or more.
Every time I see what appears to be a brand new menu, I check the date printed (usually on the bottom of the back) to see if it recently was printed. If so, I look at the prices to see the increases. We are seeing new menus printed twice a year. End result is that we are dining out less and using discount coupons more.
I think this indicator is spot-on. We don’t eat out - at all - these days, unless otherwise unavoidable. I’d say less than once a month at a real, honest-to-goodness sit down at a table and order from a menu restaurant. Fast food and pizza less often than before, too.
And a huge part of that is the cost and a tight budget.
We haven’t eaten out since January. We do get takeout once a week or so, but that’s not nearly as expensive. My husband roasted a large chicken last week end, and then made soup with what was left over. Delicious and so inexpensive compared to a restaurant!
Ummm... you might want to re-read what you wrote. I don’t think it means what you thought it meant.... or maybe it DID?
Excellent. Leftover pizza is also good for breakfast. :)
Be should really do that at home, or at least get a hotel room.
I bet it peaked on Chik-Fil-A day.
Four 20 ounce choice ribeyes at Costco = $40. Cut each in half and it is $5 per person. Rest of the meal is less than the cosr to drive to the local steak house and tastes better.
LOL I was thinking the same thing
Depending on the tax impacts, I may be making even more adjustments to my dining habits.
Since there aren’t as many people at their fav place anymore
We eat out once on Friday evening and Sunday after church, otherwise we are eating at home or take our breakfast and lunch to work.
When we are in the restaurants crowds are really down except the weekend after the first of the month.
My Dad is a small business man and he is saying he hasn’t seen the economy and business this bad ever and he has been in business since 1958.
Hubby and I eat dinner out once a week. It is our only real ‘outing’ away from the house. I have found restaurants with specials like 2 for 1 certain nights of the week and I use Restaurant.com alot. They have some really great sales. Overall it costs us about $50 a mnth to eat out once a week. Well worth it.
What about second breakfast:)
What about second breakfast:)
...or Elevenses? I don’t think he knows about that, Pip.
Oh my, I don’t what to say. This might go down in the history of FR as the funniest proofreading error ever.
That is what she said...
Thank you for saying what I was thinking!!
Holy smokes....Damn Ipad. I go to lunch and come back to FR with pings and emails and a couple of voicemails on my phone with Freeper buddies laughing.
Anyways, I had the ABSOLUTELY necessary word "with" mistyped and instead of correcting the word, I guess I deleted it...creating a most embarrasing and (to you) entertaining situation. ....lets just hope my Freeper wife doesn't search my postings ;)
....and maybe the admin mods can insert the word "with" where it should be!
What is your wife's freeper name? Just kidding.
I blame the Ipad.
I am amazed at your multi-tasking abilities in this comment.
The missing words were just too good for me not to pile on.
I believe another Freeper classic has been born. We certainly needed a good laugh after the perfisdy of the DC crowd today—thanks.
Or not. Looks like the mods are erasing all signs of its existence. Only us lucky few will ever know...
Aren’t you a little worried eating at empty restaurants? I bet they’re serving days old food for their survival and your health could be at steak.
“I usually eat the same thing 7 days a week at Chili’s for dinner”
I would go bat crazy doing that. One time we had some Japanese customers over for a couple of weeks. The first day my manager told me to take them out for lunch. We went to a local place and I explained what chicken fired steak was. Well they all had chicken fried steak. They kept asking to go back day after day after day the same thing chicken fried steak.
After 9 days I was ready to never have chicken fried steak again. The last day I convinced them to go some place else. We talked about other items on the menu and every one seemed interested in this or that. Well when the waiter came the boss ordered chicken fried steak and then they all ordered CHICKEN FIRED STEAK.
Well, they got post 7, but forgot post 6........
We’re not the lucky ones...she is!
They missed a few others, too, but I wasn’t going to help them on this one...
They can erase all they want, I figured out what the typo was, and they can’t erase my mind... :)
OK, yes, it was even funnier in context than otherwise.
the funny part was
“there just weren’t as many people there as usual”
everything is much more expensive . inflation is higher than the govt is telling us. go to a grocery now, see what $50 buys you.
I am a small business man, and I agree.
I'm not sure how Obama is keeping this out of the media - even his putative enemies are going along with the CNBC rah rah.