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ROSENBERG: One Of The Most Reliable Economic Indicators Peaked In July (Eating Out)
TBI ^ | 12-5-2012 | Sam Ro

Posted on 12/05/2012 9:48:16 AM PST by blam

ROSENBERG: One Of The Most Reliable Economic Indicators Peaked In July

Sam Ro
December 5, 2012

When the official headline economic indicators don't work, savvy investors turn to the unconventional economic indicators.

In his latest Breakfast With Dave note, David Rosenberg visits a signal being sent by the restaurant sector:

EATING OUT IS OUT

Our hedge fund desk has always told me that among the most reliable cyclical indicators for the American consumers is the restaurant sector. Traffic is slowing down precipitously and the companies are issuing negative guidance.

I took a look at the monthly details from the latest PCE data and saw that in nominal dollars, consumer spending on eating out sagged 0.4% in October and has contracted now in three of the past four months. The YoY trend peaked at +5.7% in July and has since slowed to +4.4% which is the softest pace in eight months (the three-month trend which a year ago was running at 7.5% at an annual rate is now close to stall-speed of 2%).
As a sign that families are becoming more cautious in their spending and eating habits, grocery shopping is up in two of the past three months and at double the trend (at4%) of the restaurant industry.

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan has argued that the economy went into recession in mid-2012. This evidence seems to support that thesis.

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: eatingout; economy; food; obamadepression; obamanomics; obamasfault; recession; recovery
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I'm a retired, single male in my late sixties...five years ago, I ate lunch out every day and dinner out 3-4 times a week.
These days, I eat lunch and dinner out once per week.

I don't ever eat breakfast. (I know that breakfast is touted as the most important meal of the day)

1 posted on 12/05/2012 9:48:28 AM PST by blam
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To: blam

It’s just my wife and I at home now so we eat out more than we should. I also entertain customers while when travelling so I see a lot of restaurants and a good cross section of Quality from Morton’s to Applebees and I can tell you that dining out is waaaaaay down. My wife and I stopped in at an Applebee’s last Friday night about 8:30 and were the only people in the joint the entire time it took to eat our dinner.


2 posted on 12/05/2012 9:55:46 AM PST by pgkdan (We are witnessing the modern sack of Rome. The barbarians have taken over.)
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To: blam

It seems like restaurants have really jacked their prices since this past summer. If you mix in high gas prices and higher food prices something has to be cut?


3 posted on 12/05/2012 9:57:07 AM PST by america-rules
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To: blam

You should eat your breakfast. Today, my breakfast consisted of a coke and a slice of Mrs. Smith’s apple pie.


4 posted on 12/05/2012 9:57:23 AM PST by goldi
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To: blam
Good L-rd knows I haven't been to a restaurant in months.

The last time was when we had some company in from out of town and went to our local Diner.

While it was pretty full, it was during the "specials" hour, which gets you more for your money.

We just cannot afford to go out and eat like we used too.

I remember up until just a couple of years ago, any and every semi special occasion off to Red Lobster we would go.

Now we can't afford to go even for like Veterans day.

Thanks for that Ubama, making us like the rest of the world, I so wanted to live like they do in Chad. I hope you burn in hell.

5 posted on 12/05/2012 10:01:20 AM PST by KC_Lion (Build the America you want to live in at your address, and keep looking up.-Sarah Palin)
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Comment #6 Removed by Moderator

Comment #7 Removed by Moderator

To: blam

No surprise. Maybe the public is finally realizing that the cost of dining out has gone sky-high over the past years. I have watched the casual restaurant check for two people over the past several years balloon from around $17 including tax and tip to around $32 to $36 today, here in California. Just in the past year alone, that check size has increased by at least $5 or more.

Every time I see what appears to be a brand new menu, I check the date printed (usually on the bottom of the back) to see if it recently was printed. If so, I look at the prices to see the increases. We are seeing new menus printed twice a year. End result is that we are dining out less and using discount coupons more.


8 posted on 12/05/2012 10:03:17 AM PST by CdMGuy
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To: blam

I think this indicator is spot-on. We don’t eat out - at all - these days, unless otherwise unavoidable. I’d say less than once a month at a real, honest-to-goodness sit down at a table and order from a menu restaurant. Fast food and pizza less often than before, too.

And a huge part of that is the cost and a tight budget.


9 posted on 12/05/2012 10:03:41 AM PST by kevkrom (If a wise man has an argument with a foolish man, the fool only rages or laughs...)
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To: blam

We haven’t eaten out since January. We do get takeout once a week or so, but that’s not nearly as expensive. My husband roasted a large chicken last week end, and then made soup with what was left over. Delicious and so inexpensive compared to a restaurant!


10 posted on 12/05/2012 10:04:21 AM PST by trisham (Zen is not easy. It takes effort to attain nothingness. And then what do you have? Bupkis.)
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To: DCBryan1

Ummm... you might want to re-read what you wrote. I don’t think it means what you thought it meant.... or maybe it DID?


11 posted on 12/05/2012 10:05:27 AM PST by sidetracked
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To: goldi

Excellent. Leftover pizza is also good for breakfast. :)


12 posted on 12/05/2012 10:06:45 AM PST by trisham (Zen is not easy. It takes effort to attain nothingness. And then what do you have? Bupkis.)
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To: CdMGuy
The prices are going up because the customers have gone down. They have to make it up somehow to keep the doors open, right?

Obama's fault.

13 posted on 12/05/2012 10:10:57 AM PST by newzjunkey (grr)
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To: sidetracked

Be should really do that at home, or at least get a hotel room.


14 posted on 12/05/2012 10:11:19 AM PST by SeaHawkFan
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To: newzjunkey

I bet it peaked on Chik-Fil-A day.


15 posted on 12/05/2012 10:15:29 AM PST by taterjay
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To: blam

Four 20 ounce choice ribeyes at Costco = $40. Cut each in half and it is $5 per person. Rest of the meal is less than the cosr to drive to the local steak house and tastes better.


16 posted on 12/05/2012 10:19:05 AM PST by SeaHawkFan
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To: trisham

Absolutely.


17 posted on 12/05/2012 10:27:24 AM PST by goldi
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To: sidetracked

LOL I was thinking the same thing


18 posted on 12/05/2012 10:35:16 AM PST by Rusty0604
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To: blam
I usually eat the same thing 7 days a week at Chili's for dinner. It is on my commute path home and saves adding 20 miles to my commute for an alternative. On Monday night the place was deserted. Two tables other than mine. Last night was only a little better. Still most of the dining room empty. The manager had to send staff home early. If the pattern holds, I may lose another dining option. I lost Chevy's last year along with my favorite diversion at Borders. El Torito's modified the only item on the menu in a fashion that made it inedible for a gluten intolerant diet.

Depending on the tax impacts, I may be making even more adjustments to my dining habits.

19 posted on 12/05/2012 10:36:51 AM PST by Myrddin
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To: SeaHawkFan

Since there aren’t as many people at their fav place anymore


20 posted on 12/05/2012 10:37:01 AM PST by Rusty0604
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Comment #21 Removed by Moderator

To: kevkrom

We eat out once on Friday evening and Sunday after church, otherwise we are eating at home or take our breakfast and lunch to work.

When we are in the restaurants crowds are really down except the weekend after the first of the month.

My Dad is a small business man and he is saying he hasn’t seen the economy and business this bad ever and he has been in business since 1958.


22 posted on 12/05/2012 10:42:17 AM PST by sarge83
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Comment #23 Removed by Moderator

To: CdMGuy

Hubby and I eat dinner out once a week. It is our only real ‘outing’ away from the house. I have found restaurants with specials like 2 for 1 certain nights of the week and I use Restaurant.com alot. They have some really great sales. Overall it costs us about $50 a mnth to eat out once a week. Well worth it.


24 posted on 12/05/2012 10:45:59 AM PST by sheana
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Comment #25 Removed by Moderator

To: DCBryan1
Wow. And I thought I had proofreading issues...
26 posted on 12/05/2012 10:52:36 AM PST by kevkrom (If a wise man has an argument with a foolish man, the fool only rages or laughs...)
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To: blam

What about second breakfast:)


27 posted on 12/05/2012 10:57:07 AM PST by Cold Heart
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To: Cold Heart

What about second breakfast:)

...or Elevenses? I don’t think he knows about that, Pip.


28 posted on 12/05/2012 11:17:50 AM PST by Go_Raiders (The wrong smoke detector might just kill you - http://www.theworldfiresafetyfoundation.org)
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To: DCBryan1

Oh my, I don’t what to say. This might go down in the history of FR as the funniest proofreading error ever.


29 posted on 12/05/2012 11:21:43 AM PST by muggs (Hope and Change = Hoax and Chains)
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To: T. P. Pole

That is what she said...


30 posted on 12/05/2012 11:21:43 AM PST by Resolute Conservative
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To: sidetracked

Thank you for saying what I was thinking!!


31 posted on 12/05/2012 11:27:04 AM PST by NEMDF
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To: muggs; blam; Admin Moderator; Everyone Else
...."eating out"...

Holy smokes....Damn Ipad. I go to lunch and come back to FR with pings and emails and a couple of voicemails on my phone with Freeper buddies laughing.

Anyways, I had the ABSOLUTELY necessary word "with" mistyped and instead of correcting the word, I guess I deleted it...creating a most embarrasing and (to you) entertaining situation. ....lets just hope my Freeper wife doesn't search my postings ;)

....and maybe the admin mods can insert the word "with" where it should be!

32 posted on 12/05/2012 11:30:12 AM PST by DCBryan1 (If there is ever another revolution, we need to decorate telephone poles with the MSM.)
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To: DCBryan1
lets just hope my Freeper wife doesn't search my postings ;)

What is your wife's freeper name? Just kidding.

33 posted on 12/05/2012 11:32:23 AM PST by muggs (Hope and Change = Hoax and Chains)
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To: kevkrom
Wow. And I thought I had proofreading issues...

I blame the Ipad.

34 posted on 12/05/2012 11:40:01 AM PST by DCBryan1 (If there is ever another revolution, we need to decorate telephone poles with the MSM.)
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Comment #35 Removed by Moderator

To: DCBryan1

I am amazed at your multi-tasking abilities in this comment.

The missing words were just too good for me not to pile on.

I believe another Freeper classic has been born. We certainly needed a good laugh after the perfisdy of the DC crowd today—thanks.


36 posted on 12/05/2012 11:41:46 AM PST by exit82 ("The Taliban is on the inside of the building" E. Nordstrom 10-10-12)
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To: DCBryan1
LOL be careful out there!


37 posted on 12/05/2012 11:42:23 AM PST by freedomlover
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To: exit82
I believe another Freeper classic has been born.

Or not. Looks like the mods are erasing all signs of its existence. Only us lucky few will ever know...

38 posted on 12/05/2012 11:46:58 AM PST by kevkrom (If a wise man has an argument with a foolish man, the fool only rages or laughs...)
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To: Myrddin

Aren’t you a little worried eating at empty restaurants? I bet they’re serving days old food for their survival and your health could be at steak.


39 posted on 12/05/2012 11:48:13 AM PST by sanjuanbob
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To: Myrddin

“I usually eat the same thing 7 days a week at Chili’s for dinner”

I would go bat crazy doing that. One time we had some Japanese customers over for a couple of weeks. The first day my manager told me to take them out for lunch. We went to a local place and I explained what chicken fired steak was. Well they all had chicken fried steak. They kept asking to go back day after day after day the same thing chicken fried steak.

After 9 days I was ready to never have chicken fried steak again. The last day I convinced them to go some place else. We talked about other items on the menu and every one seemed interested in this or that. Well when the waiter came the boss ordered chicken fried steak and then they all ordered CHICKEN FIRED STEAK.


40 posted on 12/05/2012 11:52:42 AM PST by Syntyr (Happiness is two at low eight!)
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To: kevkrom
Looks like the mods are erasing all signs of its existence. Only us lucky few will ever know...

Well, they got post 7, but forgot post 6........

41 posted on 12/05/2012 11:52:59 AM PST by exit82 ("The Taliban is on the inside of the building" E. Nordstrom 10-10-12)
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To: exit82

We’re not the lucky ones...she is!


42 posted on 12/05/2012 11:56:12 AM PST by sanjuanbob
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To: exit82

They missed a few others, too, but I wasn’t going to help them on this one...


43 posted on 12/05/2012 11:58:28 AM PST by kevkrom (If a wise man has an argument with a foolish man, the fool only rages or laughs...)
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To: Syntyr
I prefer consistency to illness. I tried to eat the grilled chicken Mexican Caesar at El Torito's. I was sick for 8 days due to gluten contamination. I can substitute a 9 oz steak and baked potato with butter only at Applebee's without harm...except for another $5 added to my bill.
44 posted on 12/05/2012 12:01:13 PM PST by Myrddin
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To: DCBryan1
Uhh are you sure you want to phrase it like that?. Remember prepositions are your friend :~)
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/with
45 posted on 12/05/2012 12:03:56 PM PST by Polynikes (Hakkaa Palle)
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To: kevkrom

They can erase all they want, I figured out what the typo was, and they can’t erase my mind... :)


46 posted on 12/05/2012 12:04:31 PM PST by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: exit82

OK, yes, it was even funnier in context than otherwise.


47 posted on 12/05/2012 12:06:04 PM PST by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: kevkrom

the funny part was
“there just weren’t as many people there as usual”


48 posted on 12/05/2012 12:08:22 PM PST by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: blam

everything is much more expensive . inflation is higher than the govt is telling us. go to a grocery now, see what $50 buys you.


49 posted on 12/05/2012 12:30:23 PM PST by tm61 (Election 2012: we find it IS possible, to polish a turd.)
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To: sarge83
My Dad is a small business man and he is saying he hasn’t seen the economy and business this bad ever and he has been in business since 1958.

I am a small business man, and I agree.

I'm not sure how Obama is keeping this out of the media - even his putative enemies are going along with the CNBC rah rah.

50 posted on 12/05/2012 12:34:24 PM PST by Mr. Jeeves (CTRL-GALT-DELETE)
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