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The End of the Wave: The northward surge of Mexicans into the United States may be over
National Review ^ | 12/10/2012 | Michael Barone

Posted on 12/10/2012 7:37:11 AM PST by SeekAndFind

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To: SeekAndFind

When is the treatment of American citizens in Mexico and their rights vs US treatment of Mexicans going to be an issue when we discuss amnesty ?

Ever hear of reciprocal aggrements ? These are arranged to protect the rights of American citizens working or living in other countries.

Why is it when it comes to citizens of other countries we are required to offer them the same privledges as we do to US citizens? But when it comes to US citizens who get in trouble or attempt to do business in other countries they do not get the same treatment their citizens get.

Americans can’t own coast land in Mexico. And get no title to it elsewhere. If they run out of cash they’ll get unceremoniously sent back or put in jail untill some relative comes up with the “fresh”. That’s just for starters as for granting them voting privledges yea let’s give Mexican citizens that right when American citizens vote in their elections .


21 posted on 12/10/2012 8:35:39 AM PST by mosesdapoet ("A voice crying in the wilderness make streight for the way of the Lord")
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To: TomGuy
It really has very little to do with US or Mexican economics or unemployment. This is simple demographics, related to the precipitous decline in Mexican fertility rates:

Why the Immigration Issue May Just Fade Away: The Arizona of the future won’t suffer from too many immigrants—but from too few

Excerpt:

"...A little-known, but enormously significant, demographic development has been unfolding south of our border. The fertility rate in Mexico—whose emigrants account for a majority of the United States’ undocumented population—has undergone one of the steepest declines in history, from about 6.7 children per woman in 1970 to about 2.1 today, according to World Bank figures. That makes it roughly equal to the U.S. rate and puts it at what demographers call “replacement level,” the point at which women are having just enough babies to sustain the current population. In coming years it’s expected to dip even further. Other countries in Latin America have experienced a similar drop, though not as sharp. All of which means that the ranks of those “invading” hordes are thinning—rapidly.

...When women start having fewer kids, that means fewer individuals will be entering the labor force two decades later. It has taken longer for that effect to appear in Mexico, however, because even though the fertility rate began falling in the late 1970s, the number of women of childbearing age kept growing. As a result, the pool of newly minted Mexican workers has continued to swell through today. But that’s about to change. As soon as next year, demographers say, the number of new entrants into the Mexican labor force is expected to start decreasing. This year that figure is about 750,000, says Félix Vélez, secretary-general of Mexico’s National Population Council. By 2020 it’s expected to drop to 600,000, and by 2030 to 300,000."


22 posted on 12/10/2012 9:01:47 AM PST by Brian Kopp DPM
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To: NCDave
Amen on that.

Pew slants LEFT. They're covering for the left, and trying to get us to lower our guard. Although there might be some truth--perhaps immigration is slowing--it certainly hasn't stopped.

I've seen a number of Pew polls that paint overly rosy pictures of social problems. They're quite often wrong, but by then, they've got another statistical report out on another subject, and the public (and watchdog media--what a joke!) have already forgotten about it all.

23 posted on 12/10/2012 9:10:42 AM PST by sauron ("Truth is hate to those who hate Truth" --unknown)
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To: SeekAndFind; zagger

“When a behavior is rewarded, you get more of it.” From your comment on the thread, `Why Work Anyway.’

Here’s a classic example of why this country is on the skids: It’s bad enough that we have to support a native class of deadbeats; now we’re saddled with Mexico’s cast-offs.
They are actually educated on how to be parasites in this country, by their government on how to get here, and stay here, and then by our government on how to apply for the numerous welfare programs available. Recently we have seen Mexicans so brazen in their contempt for our laws that they stand in public and say, “Arrest me!” and then they walk away.

And all the while our 5th column—the MSM—gives them cover by assuring Americans, gosh, they really aren’t a problem anymore: “Is mass migration from Mexico to the United States a thing of the past? At least for the moment, it is.” and this from National Review, purportedly a conservative magazine.

So it isn’t the Soviets, this time, selling us the rope by which we hang ourselves. It’s our own countrymen doing it. We continue the great experiment in whether or not men and women are capable of governing themselves by setting forth that we intend to reward failure and penalize success, like the failed Soviet Union.
Now that’s a recipe for the disaster that’s coming for us, that could have been addressed, but now it’s just a matter of time. Why should we work. Indeed. Why be a party to this ongoing travesty. Shackle some other sucker to your wagon, Nobama. I won’t help pay for your socialist paradise.

Nations fail from within, not from without. Edward Gibbon

At what point shall we expect the approach of danger? By what means shall we fortify against it? Shall we expect some transatlantic military giant, to step the Ocean, and crush us at a blow? Never! All the armies of Europe, Asia and Africa combined, with all the treasure of the earth (our own excepted) in their military chest; with a Buonaparte for a commander, could not by force, take a drink from the Ohio, or make a track on the Blue Ridge, in a trial of a thousand years. At what point, then, is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide. The Collected Works of Abraham Lincoln edited by Roy P. Basler, Volume I, “Address Before the Young Men’s Lyceum of Springfield, Illinois (January 27, 1838), p. 109.
Abraham Lincoln


24 posted on 12/10/2012 9:21:44 AM PST by tumblindice (America's founding fathers: All armed conservatives.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Pew Hispanic Center, huh? Relying on them for these stats is pure folly. Let’s see how long it takes PHC to call for more open immigration from messyco or relaxing the rules.


25 posted on 12/10/2012 9:49:40 AM PST by raybbr (People who still support Obama are either a Marxist or a moron.)
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To: Zhang Fei; TomGuy; C210N; NCDave; sauron; raybbr
These statistics have nothing to do with Pew. The collapse in Mexican fertility rates is well known and documented and the reversal of immigration trends as a result was forecast years ago by demographers.

Demographics is destiny, and there's no turning around this trend:


26 posted on 12/10/2012 10:22:42 AM PST by Brian Kopp DPM
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To: raybbr
Misconceptions About Mexico’s Birth Rate

In the American immigration debate, the point is often made on talk radio that Mexicans stream into the United States because their birth rate is so high. Mainstream sources sometimes make the same argument. In June, 2010, Britain’s Prince Charles warnedabout the “cultural pressures that keep the global birth rate high,” arguing that the same is true in “Mumbai, Cairo or Mexico City; wherever you look, the world’s population is increasing fast.”

The population of Mexico City is certainly increasing, but not because the country’s birth rate is elevated. Mexico’s total fertility rate (TFR), or the number of children born to an average woman, is actually very close to 2.1—essentially the same as that of the United States. If Mexico’s population continues to expand, it is because its fertility drop is so recent. At its current birth rate, the Mexican population will soon stabilize even without emigration to the United States. As a developing country, Mexico is hardly alone in this situation. Mauritius’s TFR is 1.9, Thailand’s is 1.8, and Trinidad and Tobago’s is 1.6, all well below replacement level.


27 posted on 12/10/2012 10:26:21 AM PST by Brian Kopp DPM
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To: SeekAndFind


28 posted on 12/10/2012 10:31:49 AM PST by Iron Munro (I MISS AMERICA !)
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To: SeekAndFind

Ay caramba, the party’s over...Vominos, muchachos!


29 posted on 12/10/2012 10:43:10 AM PST by fattigermaster
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To: Dr. Brian Kopp
These statistics have nothing to do with Pew.

Excuse me!

Then explain the very third sentence: "At least for the moment, it is. Last May, the Pew Hispanic Center..."

Not sure what your point is but it has not much to do with the article posted on the thread. The article is about migration not birth rates.

30 posted on 12/10/2012 2:55:26 PM PST by raybbr (People who still support Obama are either a Marxist or a moron.)
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To: SeekAndFind

So now are we just suppose to accept amnesty for the ones who are here? Screw that!


31 posted on 12/10/2012 3:05:22 PM PST by stevio (God, guns, guts.)
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To: raybbr
Not sure what your point is but it has not much to do with the article posted on the thread. The article is about migration not birth rates.

On the contrary, it has everything to do with fertility rates. This article is not propaganda from Pew, its simply reporting what has been known and anticipated for a number of years. People who have been paying attention to demographics have been saying for years that the Mexican immigrant issue would cease to exist due to the precipitous collapse in Mexican fertility rates. See for instance this American Enterprise Institute article from 2007:

Mexican Immigration Will Solve Itself

...As the debate over illegal immigration from Mexico rages in Washington and across the country, and as the administration’s reform bill hangs by a thread, few Americans are aware that this problem is on track to decline, and will eventually become a vague memory.

There has been a stunning decline in the fertility rate in Mexico, which means that, in a few years, there will not be nearly as many teenagers in Mexico looking for work in the United States or anywhere else. If this trend in the fertility rate continues, Mexico will resemble Japan and Italy—rapidly aging populations with too few young workers to support the economy.

According to the World Bank’s 2007 Annual Development Indicators, in 1990 Mexico had a total lifetime fertility rate of 3.3 children per female, but by 2005, that number had fallen by 36 percent to 2.1, which is the “break even” point for population stability in developed nations. The large number of women currently in their reproductive years means that there are still quite a few babies, but as this group ages, the number of infants will decline sharply. If this trend toward fewer children continues, there being no apparent reason for it to cease, the number of young people in the Mexican population will decline significantly just when the number of elderly is rising. As labor markets in Mexico tighten and wage rates rise, far fewer Mexican youngsters will be interested in coming to the United States. Since our baby boomers will be retiring at the same time, we could face a severe labor shortage.


32 posted on 12/10/2012 6:13:48 PM PST by Brian Kopp DPM
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To: SeekAndFind
Although his article does not specifically cite it, Barone implies a repetition of a past pattern with wave immigration: substantial numbers of past immigrants also fell on hard times shortly after arrival, and voluntarily repatriated to their home countries. This is not new with the hispanic wave.
33 posted on 12/10/2012 7:40:10 PM PST by hinckley buzzard
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