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Mass migration from Mexico may be history (Michael Barone)
Washington Examiner ^ | December 8, 2012 | Michael Barone

Posted on 12/10/2012 10:30:27 AM PST by neverdem

Is mass migration from Mexico to the United States a thing of the past?

At least for the moment, it is. Last May, the Pew Hispanic Center, in a study based on U.S. and Mexican statistics, reported that net migration from Mexico to this country had fallen to zero from 2005 to 2010.

Pew said 20,000 more people moved to Mexico from the United States than from there to here in those years. That's a vivid contrast with the years 1995 to 2000, when net inflow from Mexico was 2.2 million people.

Because there was net Mexican immigration until 2007, when the housing market collapsed and the Great Recession began, it seems clear that there was net outmigration from 2007 to 2010, and that likely has continued in 2011 and 2012.

There's a widespread assumption that Mexican migration will resume when the U.S. economy starts growing robustly again. But I think there's reason to doubt that will be the case.

Over the past few years, I have been working on a book, scheduled for publication next fall, on American migrations, internal and immigrant. What I've found is that over the years this country has been peopled in large part by surges of migration that have typically lasted just one or two generations.

Almost no one predicted that these surges of migration would occur, and almost no one predicted when they would end.

For example, when our immigration system was opened up in 1965, experts testified that we would not get many immigrants from Latin America or Asia. They assumed that immigrants would come mainly from Europe, as they had in the past.

Experts have also tended to assume that immigrants are motivated primarily by economic factors. And in the years starting in the 1980s, many people in Latin America and Asia, especially in Mexico, which has produced more than 60 percent of Latin American immigrants, saw opportunities to make a better living in this country.

But masses of people do not uproot themselves from familiar territory just to make marginal economic gains. They migrate to pursue dreams or escape nightmares.

Life in Mexico is not a nightmare for many these days. Beneath the headlines about killings in the drug wars, Mexico has become a predominantly middle-class country, as Jorge Castaneda notes in his recent book "Manana Forever?" Its economy is growing faster than ours.

And the dreams that many Mexican immigrants pursued have been shattered.

You can see that if you look at the statistics on mortgage foreclosures in the years, starting with the housing bust in 2007. More than half were in the four "sand states" -- California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida -- and within them, as the Pew Hispanic Center noted in a 2009 report, in areas with large numbers of Latino immigrants.

These were places where subprime mortgages were granted, with encouragement from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, to many Latinos unqualified by traditional credit standards.

These new homeowners, many of them construction workers, dreamed of gaining hundreds of thousands of dollars as housing prices inevitably rose. Instead, they collapsed. My estimate is that one-third of those foreclosed on in these years were Latinos. Their dreams turned into nightmares.

We can see further evidence in last month's Pew Research report on the recent decline in U.S. birthrates. The biggest drop was among Mexican-born women, from 455,000 births in 2007 to 346,000 in 2010.

That's a 24 percent decline, compared with only a 6 percent decline among U.S.-born women. It's comparable to the sharp decline in U.S. birthrates in the Depression years from 1929 to 1933.

Beneath the cold statistics on foreclosures and births is a human story, a story of people whose personal lives have been deeply affected by economic developments over which they had no control and of which they had no warning.

Those events have prompted many to resort to, in Mitt Romney's chilly words, "self-deportation." And their experiences are likely to have reverberations for many others who have learned of their plight.

Surges of migration that have shaped the country sometimes end abruptly. The surge of Southern blacks to Northern cities lasted from 1940 to 1965, one generation. The surge of Mexicans into the U.S. lasted from 1982 to 2007, one generation.

The northward surge of American blacks has never resumed. I don't think the northward surge of Mexicans will either.


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Editorial; Mexico; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: aliens; illegals; immigration; michaelbarone; trends
I hope this prediction is better than his prediction for last Nov. 6.
1 posted on 12/10/2012 10:30:32 AM PST by neverdem
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To: neverdem

He could be correct, as demographics are always a big economic indicator. We longer see mass immigration from Italy or Ireland, and haven’t for decades. They simply do not have people to export any longer.

But don’t worry, Democrats will find replacements for them in places like Somalia or Yemen.


2 posted on 12/10/2012 10:37:25 AM PST by PGR88
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To: neverdem

More B.S. presented as thoughtful analysis.

Whenever the wetbacks think they will be better off on this side of the border the flood will increase.


3 posted on 12/10/2012 10:40:38 AM PST by Iron Munro (I MISS AMERICA !)
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To: neverdem
Michael Barone
More krap from the guy who predicted Romney would win "handily."
4 posted on 12/10/2012 10:47:03 AM PST by oh8eleven (RVN '67-'68)
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To: PGR88
We longer see mass immigration from Italy or Ireland, and haven’t for decades.

That is primarily an effect of the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965 which favors immigration of blacks and browns over whites and third world immigration over European immigration.


5 posted on 12/10/2012 10:47:49 AM PST by Iron Munro (I MISS AMERICA !)
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To: neverdem
Those events have prompted many to resort to, in Mitt Romney's chilly words, "self-deportation."

"Chilly words"? They went home. Thats not a bad thing. When I come home its a good thing.

He takes pains to point out in the rest of his article that Mexico is a growing economy. Going home because you have more opportunity in your home country is not a tragedy.

If these people were here because of a demand for labor, and now there is no demand for their labor, and so they went home, is that not merely logical?

the dreams that many Mexican immigrants pursued have been shattered.

Its been tough for a lot of people.

My estimate is that one-third of those foreclosed on in these years were Latinos.

Two thirds were not. So? He is mixing apples and oranges, mixing Latino citizens with illegal immigrants. Two separate issues.

What many of us have said is that, if you control the border and enforce the law, people will self-deport. There will be no need for mass deportations. People either find a way to legalize themselves or eventually they go home as opportunities dry up here.

In the Obama economy, the opportunities are drying up and people are going home anyway. It confirms what we said all along.

6 posted on 12/10/2012 10:49:26 AM PST by marron
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To: neverdem
The Mexican is a patriot but he has to feed his family and if his homeland came even close to providing for he and his he will go home.

Now if the next time Mexico again becomes an intolerable impoverished socialist tyranny he may stay and right things this time (I hope).

Obama making America just another intolerable impoverished socialist tyranny and causing, for the first time in US history, it to be unattractive to immigration, may be the ultimate blessing for the Leftist dictators of the earth and their agenda of eternal revenge against the White Man.

Obama’s evil, bitter and petulant destruction of the White Man's US Constitution and traditional America will make us beg to be 3rd World slaves.

7 posted on 12/10/2012 10:56:24 AM PST by Happy Rain (If General Washington had had access to H-bombs, the 2nd Amendment would still mean the the same.)
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To: Iron Munro
The collapse in Mexican fertility rates is well known and documented and the reversal of immigration trends as a result was forecast years ago by demographers.

Demographics is destiny, and there's no turning around this trend:

Misconceptions About Mexico’s Birth Rate

In the American immigration debate, the point is often made on talk radio that Mexicans stream into the United States because their birth rate is so high. Mainstream sources sometimes make the same argument. In June, 2010, Britain’s Prince Charles warnedabout the “cultural pressures that keep the global birth rate high,” arguing that the same is true in “Mumbai, Cairo or Mexico City; wherever you look, the world’s population is increasing fast.”

The population of Mexico City is certainly increasing, but not because the country’s birth rate is elevated. Mexico’s total fertility rate (TFR), or the number of children born to an average woman, is actually very close to 2.1—essentially the same as that of the United States. If Mexico’s population continues to expand, it is because its fertility drop is so recent. At its current birth rate, the Mexican population will soon stabilize even without emigration to the United States. As a developing country, Mexico is hardly alone in this situation. Mauritius’s TFR is 1.9, Thailand’s is 1.8, and Trinidad and Tobago’s is 1.6, all well below replacement level.


8 posted on 12/10/2012 10:57:20 AM PST by Brian Kopp DPM
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To: Iron Munro
After 90% of all the Irish in history showed up in the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and scattered about the Americas ~ Ireland ran out of people to export, but if you really want we could probably buy up the remaining stock and fly them to Boston to be broken in as Democrat voters ~ jus' in case we were running short there.

Italy got its act together ~ the food is better anyway.

9 posted on 12/10/2012 11:02:51 AM PST by muawiyah
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To: neverdem

With amnesty right around the corner I expect 10s of millions of new wetbacks sneaking in to get a piece of the pie.


10 posted on 12/10/2012 11:10:43 AM PST by crosshairs (The left's hatred for Christianity far exceeds the fear they should have for Islam.)
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To: marron
"mixing Latino citizens with illegal immigrants."

Just before the bubble burst they were granting mortgages to illegal aliens.

It was that bad.

11 posted on 12/10/2012 11:26:43 AM PST by who_would_fardels_bear
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To: neverdem

I’ve actually seen this though people don’t believe it, the mass illegal immigration stopped almost the minute Bush put the NG on the border and it has not picked up.

What we have now is illegal drug trade up the wazoo.

I know a young man whose parents are legal, all his siblings are legal but he wasn’t. He got picked up in AZ on a traffic stop and deported. He immediately started working for Verizon in Mexicali and they have already promoted him to a position in Mexico City. He’s smart, speaks great English and Spanish and he makes more money than his brother’s in the US who, although also smart and bilingual are in menial jobs.


12 posted on 12/10/2012 11:28:10 AM PST by tiki
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To: neverdem
Over the past few years, I have been working on a book, scheduled for publication next fall, on American migrations, internal and immigrant.

Agitprop designed to get us to take another bad immigration deal...

What I've found is that over the years this country has been peopled in large part by surges of migration that have typically lasted just one or two generations.

...one that relies on the fallacy that just because something happened in the past it must repeat the same pattern.

13 posted on 12/10/2012 11:28:37 AM PST by Carry_Okie (The Slave Party: advancing indenture since 1787.)
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To: Carry_Okie
Agitprop designed to get us to take another bad immigration deal...

Unlikely while the Great Recession morphs into the 2nd Great Depression. The best chance for comprehensive immigration reform with amnesty was before November 2010. Rats elected in 2006 and later knew it was a loser like gun control.

Barone is on record for changing the basis for legal immigration from family reunification to American need for skills.

14 posted on 12/10/2012 2:33:42 PM PST by neverdem ( Xin loi min oi)
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To: neverdem

“At least for the moment, it (mass migration from Mexico, decreasing) is.”

If you think healthcare is bad now, just wait `til it’s `free’.
And if you think things are bad now with criminal migrants demanding this-and-that: `three hots and a cot’, `walking around’ money, free kidneys, etc.—just wait until Zero & the Dims, McCain/the Bush’s, the National Review, Wall Street Journal and rest of the GOP-e and Co. get their “comprehensive immigration reform” .... There are tens of thousands of Mexicans waiting to head north, with nothing to offer but their appetites, like `Sooners’ and the Oklahoma land rush. And that’s just the first wave.
At this point, I don’t care. At this point it’s every one for themselves.


15 posted on 12/10/2012 2:35:05 PM PST by tumblindice (America's founding fathers: All armed conservatives.)
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To: Iron Munro
[Article] For example, when our immigration system was opened up in 1965, experts testified that we would not get many immigrants from Latin America or Asia.

They lied, or they were chosen to testify because they were clueless about what the politicians (LBJ and Ted Kennedy) were up to.

They assumed that immigrants would come mainly from Europe, as they had in the past.

They told people what the political leadership wanted the people to hear. They did not tell the people, because the "experts" didn't know, or because they were lying, that the immigration flood would be Mexican and Central American, by design.

We longer see mass immigration from Italy or Ireland, and haven’t for decades.

That is primarily an effect of the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965 which favors immigration of blacks and browns over whites and third world immigration over European immigration.

Exactly. That is because Lyndon Johnson intended to turn the Southwest, including his native Texas, into a Democrat stronghold held by millions of ignorant (oh, excuse me -- that's "low-information"), generationally and reflexively Socialist-voting Mexican voters for the Democratic Party, countering the defection of the "Solid South" over the Civil Rights Act which demeaned them, and recapturing the White House for the Democrats for the next 200 years.

16 posted on 12/10/2012 2:47:48 PM PST by lentulusgracchus
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To: oh8eleven
More krap from the guy who predicted Romney would win "handily."

Michael Barone was wrong once. We must never pay any attention to him again despite his decades of sound analysis.

17 posted on 12/10/2012 4:48:41 PM PST by BfloGuy (Workers and consumers are, of course, identical.)
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To: BfloGuy

Advice ... from a Bills’ fan.


18 posted on 12/11/2012 5:15:44 AM PST by oh8eleven (RVN '67-'68)
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To: oh8eleven
Advice ... from a Bills’ fan.

Heh. That stage of my life ended about a decade ago. Politics get me upset enough -- I didn't need the Bills' adding to it.

19 posted on 12/11/2012 3:02:09 PM PST by BfloGuy (Workers and consumers are, of course, identical.)
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To: Iron Munro

I think the Democrats are actually discriminating against European immigrants. It would be interesting to do a comparison on how much time it takes for European immigrants to go through the immigration process compared to immigrants from the third world. I think Democrats favor non-white groups such as Muslims, Latin Americans etc.


20 posted on 12/12/2012 9:36:34 PM PST by cradle of freedom (Long live the Republic !)
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To: lentulusgracchus

Can it be a coincidence that the National Council of LaRaza was formed in 1968 just a couple of years after the immigration reform bill?


21 posted on 12/12/2012 9:41:09 PM PST by cradle of freedom (Long live the Republic !)
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