Skip to comments.Bad News Bear Grantham the Grim
Posted on 12/12/2012 11:14:47 PM PST by bruinbirdman
JEREMY GRANTHAM is famous for looking into the dark corners of investment. He sees things wed rather not discuss. His pessimism has served him well. Investors hire Grantham to spot irrational exuberance and bet against it. Thats why his firm, Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo, is entrusted to manage $100 billion.
The dour Grantham makes a lot of money for his clients. He is usually right.
In his November newsletter, you see, Grantham the Grim delivers the most pessimistic report weve ever seen. Anywhere.
He writes: The U.S. GDP growth rate that we have become accustomed to for over 100 yearsin excess of 3% a yearis not just hiding behind temporary setbacks. It is gone forever. Yet most business people (and the Fed) assume that economic growth will recover to its old rates. Going forward, GDP growth (conventionally measured) for the U.S. is likely to be about only 1.4% a year, and adjusted growth about 0.9%.
Wow. Theres grim, and theres Grantham grim. Two percent growth is bad enough. This describes the sluggish economy we have now. But Grantham goes further. He takes our awful present reality and cuts it in half: 1% growth. And not for 2013. Oh, no.
Grantham predicts a dreary 1% growth rate for as far as the eye can see.
Grantham cites two main trends to make his case.
Service-sector productivity is poor (only 1.3% annual improvement), and getting worse. This is a terrible development, since more people will be thrown into the service
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
Dark skies ahead.
I think it is really dumb that one unelected man who may be a tool of Islamic interests intent on hurting our economy, is persuading Republicans in Congress not to give a little on the tax issue regarding the Bush tax cuts. If the House will vote the already Senate passed bill to extend the tax cuts for 100% of the peoples’ income under $250,000, and only go back to the Clinton rates for the 2% who have income above that figure, and ONLY for the amount ABOVE that figure, we would have a lot more Christmas shopping and happy businesses. Of course why would a Muslim lover want us to have a Merry Christmas.
You think the Democrat plan will help the economy?
That’s pathetic, duck.
yes, if only we would eat go along with the democrats and “eat the rich” (just a little bite there guvna, they can afford it, this year), the rest of us could have Merry Christmas each and every one
This country does not have a tax problem it has a spending problem. the most optimistic projection has a tax increase reducing the deficit rate by 10%. Many of the people making over $200,000 are in busness for themselves. They will simply increase their fees and pass the cost down the line. There is no free lunch here.
We may not become Greece, but we will become Japan.
My banker said at the beginning of 2009 that we were going to be like Japan. 4 years in and he has not been wrong.
This country has an import problem.
Bring back US production.
They go on to trash him and call him a Malthusian. One of the factors in his analysis is advanced stages of global warming.
Yet, investors trust him with $6 B.
Maybe they didn't read the entire article either.