Skip to comments.OH NO: Roubini Believes In The Housing Recovery, And Is Optimistic About The US Economy
Posted on 12/14/2012 6:28:35 PM PST by blam
OH NO: Roubini Believes In The Housing Recovery, And Is Optimistic About The US Economy
Dec. 14, 2012, 12:17 PM
Dr. doom isn't sounding a little... positive.
He was on Bloomberg Surveillance today. You can watch the video here. This partial transcript was provided to us by Bloomberg:
Roubini on whether he's bullish on the United States:
"In the long term, I think that the fundamentals of the U.S. are a lot stronger than other advanced countries. In the short run I think we will have another year of very anemic economic growth. Next year we will have barely 1.7% including a modest amount of fiscal drag and lots of tail risk could make it worse in the U.S--bigger fiscal cliff, the euro zone crisis, a Chinese hard landing, maybe tensions will raise oil prices in the Middle East--so the downside scenario is actually having a meaningful probability."
On whether he's convinced there's a U.S. housing recovery:
"I do believe there is a housing recovery but I think that those that are more optimistic about it are going to be proven wrong next year. Housing can increase say 10 to 15% in real terms of residential investment but at the peak it was 6% of GDP, right now it's only 2% of GDP, so the direct effect on GDP growth is going to be very small."
On what he's encouraged by in the U.S. economy:
"There are some positives. There's a housing recovery, shale gas revaluation, some reshoring of manufacturing, some job creation, QE3 is going to help. But even in a scenario where we avoid the cliff, we expect there will be a fiscal adjustment of 1.4% of GDP next year
My best scenario for the U.S. is 1.7% growth for next year
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
So, 1.4 to 1.7 percent yearly growth is positive?
Sounds to me that this article is not titled properly. I didn’t get the impression that he’s optimistic at all.
This is one guy I do not trust at all.
Roubini is paid for his opinions. Bear that in mind.
I flip houses and the new home builders are starting to buy land and submit plans for housing developments. My investors and I are going to start buying land and hold it for a while. I have a parcel that I have held for a few years and my realtor thinks he will have 4 solid offers in late Jan, it should be worth 2+ million.
I don’t know if the economy is really improving, but there is definitely some new activity in the housing markets.
It is getting harder and harder to find good deals on houses to flip also and when done they are selling quickly and for more than asking price, with multiple offers.