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ROSENBERG: Here Are 6 Dark Economic Clouds That Are Parting
| Sam Ro
Posted on 12/18/2012 10:20:54 AM PST by blam
ROSENBERG: Here Are 6 Dark Economic Clouds That Are Parting
December 18, 2012
Lately, David Rosenberg has adopted a more optimistic tone in his research notes.
"While I wouldn't exactly say that I see silver linings, I would say that some clouds certainly appear to be parting," wrote the normally bearish Rosenberg in this morning's Breakfast With Dave note.
He offers six such clouds that are parting:
1."...some stabilization of the U.S. data that should prevent further downgrades at least as Q4 GDP consensus call is concerned."
2."...we are moving closer to a deal on the fiscal front. The cliff will likely be avoided but Q1 will still be a steep hill."
3."...China not only managed to successfully guide its economy into a soft landing, there are now signs of renewal in industrial activity."
4."...there are [U.S. housing market] experts who I have a ton of respect for (Michele Meyer at BAML, for one) who sees sustained strength in 2013."
5."Japan just elected a new government that is much more dedicated towards reflation than its predecessor."
6."...we know that the ECB has managed to put a floor in regarding the Euro area crisis which has not suffered a flare-up in a year."
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: economy; recession; recovery
David has been a big Doomer - Gloomer up till now.
posted on 12/18/2012 10:20:58 AM PST
He’s come to realize that no matter how badly we eff it up, the rest of the planet will always be even worse.
He didn’t mention the biggest and darkets cloud of all time: $16+ trillion in national debt. If that isn’t the mother of all economic nuclear time bombs waiting to explode, I don’t know what is. As far as I am concerned Armageddon has already arrived.
And he’s been right. More than anyone else, Rosie was right on the price move in US Treasuries.
People were excoriating him for not being in equities and missing some of the 100% runup from the March, 2009 lows. But these people forget that Rosie (and his firm) aren’t in the business of making the maximum alpha - Rosie and his firm are very much Canadian in outlook, and their first rule is “don’t lose money.”
posted on 12/18/2012 10:43:57 AM PST
To: Buckeye McFrog
Too little too late. With the reelection of obobo were half way through a lost decade.
posted on 12/18/2012 11:16:59 AM PST
I just about sprayed coffee on my keyboard and monitor!
I'm not sure what MSM / TBTF bank / WEE (Washington Economic Establishment) outfit fuels this hack's engine ... but ...
- U.S. indicators are rigged to hide inflation, drop COLAs, downplay deficit spending, and accomplish lots of other socialistic objectives. Real economic indicators are falling (see John Williams at Shadow Statistics); many reputable economists argue convincing that we have been in a recession for the past two quarters (at a minimum); there has been no recovery since the 2008 financial fiasco; Bernanke is printing $85 billion per month in QE4 (to infinity) -- because almost nobody wants the worthless paper; the U.S. debt load is at 120-200 trillion on a GAAP basis and cannot be amortized no matter how much taxes are raised, the economy grows and government spending is actually cut, etc. ... lots of dark clouds on the horizon ... everywhere.
- There is no "meaningful" fiscal deal, and there never will be one. Boo Hoo Boner may reach some sort of agreement with the Rats, but spending will soar under every "proposed" agreement. Both parties are merely kicking the can down the road until the dollar ultimately collapses, probably in a couple of years or so.
- China has cooked their books even more than the U.S. has. Claims of a Chinese turnaround are widely dismissed among knowledgeable sources. Even if they have reversed their central planning debacles, who will buy Chinese exports ... the broke U.S. consumer, the broke Japanese consumer, the broke European consumer, or the third world peasant?
- The U.S. housing market is bottom bouncing at best. The Fed is printing 45 billion per month to prevent more banker default and housing market collapse. A huge number of homes are in default but have yet to hit the market ... and a huge number of homes have negative equity. This Congress/Fed induced bubble has yet to fully pop.
- The new Japanese government is leftist and committed to public works and money printing ... in fact, they have already been forced to print their debt service. Their last round of "quantitative easing" produced no discernible economic benefits, and they have no other viable stimulus options left. The yen is in a nose dive. Many believe their economy will completely collapse in the near future.
- The euro crisis is far from over. Greece is nearing civil war; Spain is suffering an almost total economic collapse; Portugal, Ireland, Cyprus and Italy are on the brink; the Germans are losing patience (and slowly going broke); there have been several defaults (although they are not called that in order to stave off derivative triggers ... and lots more defaults) in recent months.
A few weeks ago, the economist Gary North noted that the Broadway play Peter Pan had a scene where the audience was asked to clap in order to save the life of a fairy named Tinkerbell. He then argued that people like the clown that wrote this "light at the end of the tunnel" article should start to clap right now ... because that's about all that's left to save their fairy tale analysis.
posted on 12/18/2012 11:26:12 AM PST
(Calling the Obozo/Bernack economy sluggish is an insult to slugs)
MAKE US AN OFFER!
posted on 12/18/2012 11:31:09 AM PST
How much is the war with Iran,etal going to cost? How many more layoffs over Obamacare? How are states of Ill, NY, & Cally going to pay their bills even with the huge tax increases & business leaving them. What a bunch of crapola by this writer.
posted on 12/18/2012 12:32:12 PM PST
To: Digger; blam
posted on 12/19/2012 2:02:12 PM PST
I'm a fan of John Williams.
posted on 12/19/2012 5:44:14 PM PST
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