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Without Babies, Can Japan Survive?
The New York Times ^ | December 15, 2012 | ALEXANDRA HARNEY

Posted on 12/18/2012 6:35:11 PM PST by MinorityRepublican

TOKYO

THE first grade class at the elementary school in Nanmoku, about 85 miles from Tokyo, has just a single student this year. The local school system that five decades ago taught 1,250 elementary school children is now educating just 37. Many of the town’s elegant wooden homes are abandoned. Where generations of cedar loggers, sweet potato farmers and factory workers once made their lives, monkeys now reside. The only sounds at night are the cries of deer and the wail of an occasional ambulance.

Nanmoku’s plight is Japan’s fate. Faced with an aging society, a depopulating countryside and economic stagnation, the country has struggled for decades to address its challenges. As Japan goes to the polls on Dec. 16 for parliamentary elections that will most likely mean the seventh prime minister in six years, voters need to demand that politicians address the most important issue of all: the country’s low birthrate.

Sadly, this issue is hardly being discussed on the campaign trail. Instead, parties are promising to lavish more money on special interests like construction companies, the main beneficiaries of public works spending.

Nowhere is the rapid aging of Japan more visible than in rural towns like Nanmoku, where 56 percent of local residents are over 65. Over the next 25 years, the proportion of Japan’s population that is elderly will rise from almost one in four to one in three. Sales of adult diapers will soon surpass those of baby diapers.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


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1 posted on 12/18/2012 6:35:14 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican

Japan has a VERY restrictive immigration policy and will survive as a smaller Japan.

We, on the other hand...


2 posted on 12/18/2012 6:37:54 PM PST by 2banana (My common ground with terrorists - they want to die for islam and we want to kill them)
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To: MinorityRepublican

We have forty or fifty million illegals we would be happy to send them...


3 posted on 12/18/2012 6:41:37 PM PST by rockrr (Everything is different now...)
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To: 2banana

The only shortcut would be a significant increase in immigration, a deeply controversial subject in Japan.


And here is the NY Times championing the only “intelligent” solution to the problem. Increase immigration. No doubt they will urge Japan to import Muslims in large numbers. What could go wrong?

Japan will go through some hard times, but will survive. With immigration, they will become just another province in the Caliphate.


4 posted on 12/18/2012 6:44:55 PM PST by rbg81
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To: 2banana

In fact they had a massive import of Pakistanis at the time. One egghead in Japan decided they are genetic siblings to japanese and pushed that idea to the government.


5 posted on 12/18/2012 6:47:49 PM PST by cunning_fish
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To: MinorityRepublican

Could it be that the population moved to other areas of Japan. Tokyo has a pretty big population. This story could be said in many small towns in America.


6 posted on 12/18/2012 6:51:46 PM PST by napscoordinator (GOP Candidate 2020 - "Bloomberg 2020 - We vote for whatever crap the GOP puts in front of us.")
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To: MinorityRepublican

They have a serious problem there, at least in the next few decades.

Eventually they will have to liberalize immigration just to staff the nursing homes, I assume that suicide is no longer popular there post WWII.


7 posted on 12/18/2012 6:52:35 PM PST by sickoflibs (Dems know how to win. Rs know how to whine.)
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To: MinorityRepublican

Chesterton on birth control/population control:

In 1925 Chesterton wrote an introduction to Charles Dickens’ A Christmas Carol in which he said that “The answer to anyone who talks about the surplus population is to ask him, whether he is part of the surplus population; or if not, how he knows he is not.”


8 posted on 12/18/2012 6:52:50 PM PST by Salvation ("With God all things are possible." Matthew 19:26)
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To: MinorityRepublican; Lazmataz

If they need a Stud Service, I will carry Laz’s luggage and be quite happy to handle the leftovers.

TT


9 posted on 12/18/2012 6:52:58 PM PST by TexasTransplant (Radical islam is islam. Moderate islam is the Trojan Horse.)
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To: sickoflibs

Nope. The Japs will manufacture robots before they ever hire foreigners.


10 posted on 12/18/2012 6:54:49 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican

Third, both the government and companies should encourage more women to enter the labor force with high-quality jobs on a par with men and offer incentives to women to return to work after childbirth. In places where these sorts of reforms have taken hold, from France to Sweden, the result has been a boost to the birthrate and the economy.

_________________________________

Pay moms to stay hoome and have a scad of children. Subsudize the scad.


11 posted on 12/18/2012 6:55:53 PM PST by Chickensoup (Leftist Totalitarian Fascism coming to a country like yours.)
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To: MinorityRepublican
Does anyone know why Japan has suddenly stopped reproducing?

Oh well. A nice empty place for us rednecks to move to when life here becomes unbearable. And I hear it's beautiful.

12 posted on 12/18/2012 6:57:49 PM PST by Zionist Conspirator (Ki-hagoy vehamamlakhah 'asher lo'-ya`avdukh yove'du; vehagoyim charov yecheravu!)
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To: MinorityRepublican

Capitalism depends on growth to prosper. I think the prospects for Japan are grim. But it will be an interesting experiment to watch.


13 posted on 12/18/2012 7:00:40 PM PST by Katiana Kalashnikova
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To: Zionist Conspirator

Personally, I think history has simply run its course there. Once a society gets to the point where it is heavily urbanized and has such a high standard of living, it naturally does whatever it takes to maintain it and continue to improve on it — even if it means eliminating all the difficulty and uncertainties of raising kids.


14 posted on 12/18/2012 7:08:42 PM PST by Alberta's Child ("I am the master of my fate ... I am the captain of my soul.")
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To: 2banana

Till our women had no more children
And our men lost reason and faith
And the gods of the copybook headings said,
“The wages of sin is death.”


15 posted on 12/18/2012 7:12:19 PM PST by I-ambush (Don't let it bring you down, it's only castles burning.)
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To: MinorityRepublican
I think Japan will have a rough time. A small population of young people, and a large population of old people is an uncomfortable situation.

However, on the far side of that, Japan will end up with an efficient, automated society, with a small population and the ability to run a large national economy with just a core group of producers. That could be a good thing.

To put it another way: Think of the US with a population of perhaps 200 Million. Imagine that we've got rid of all the moochers. All the lazy people, the derelicts. We're left with an efficient, automated society, we have a vast infrastructure in place, and we have a total population of 200 million, all of whom are genuine producers.

We'd have a wonderful society.

Japan will have pain -- but on the far side of that pain, Japan may have a wonderful society.

16 posted on 12/18/2012 7:13:22 PM PST by ClearCase_guy (Republicans have made themselves useless, toothless, and clueless.)
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To: 2banana

Sounds wonderful! Algore and the other evironmentalists long for the United States to become as ideal as Japan.


17 posted on 12/18/2012 7:14:49 PM PST by dvan (Send Them Home!)
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To: 2banana
It's almost impossible to learn to read Japanese as an adult, much more difficult than it is for someone to learn English if they are already familiar with the Roman alphabet. Even without familiarity with the Roman alphabet, there are only 26 letters to learn, and most immigrants would have been exposed to the Roman alphabet, even if the native language in their home country used a different alphabet.

Thus, an intelligent immigrant to the US or other English speaking country can become proficient in English in a relatively short period of time.

18 posted on 12/18/2012 7:14:49 PM PST by Koblenz (The Dem Platform, condensed: 1. Tax and Spend. 2. Cut and Run. 3. Man on Man)
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To: MinorityRepublican

I volunteer my services for the fansub community in America on occasion. Based on the last Animexpo here in L.A. and from what my friends told me, there is a massive flight out of Japan. Been to Tokyo and the prefectures to visit my college buddy who teaches English there in a gakuen’ or high school, he also notices a LOT of the upper grades getting less and less students.


19 posted on 12/18/2012 7:15:34 PM PST by max americana (Make the world a better place by punching a liberal in the face)
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To: napscoordinator

No.

I’ve looked at the state of the Japanese economy from the standpoint of an investor.

They’re in deep doo-doo. And a big part of it is the “birth dearth” they have that is going to collapse their social welfare schemes as well as explode their medical care costs.... starting right about now.

In the next several years, you’re going to see some very, very serious economic developments come out of Japan. They’re going to have world-wide implications, and implications for the US as well.


20 posted on 12/18/2012 7:23:23 PM PST by NVDave
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To: Zionist Conspirator

“Does anyone know why Japan has suddenly stopped reproducing?”

Back in the early 90s, when Japan looked like they would take over the world (much less the US) economically, Rush simply suggested that we export Liberalism to them.

We did, and they have now paid the price for a generation. Even 20 years ago Japanese women knew that their job was to stay home and raise the next generation...now they all work and want nothing to do with the beasts that they used to refer to as husbands.


21 posted on 12/18/2012 7:27:07 PM PST by BobL (Agenda 21...Agenda 21...Agenda 21...Agenda 21...Agenda 21... (whatever the hell that is))
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To: sickoflibs

They’re already working on robots to tend to this exact need.

They’re not going to liberalize immigration. Period, end of story. The NY Times is simply full of mental flatulence... as is their normal state.


22 posted on 12/18/2012 7:27:34 PM PST by NVDave
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To: Zionist Conspirator
Does anyone know why Japan has suddenly stopped reproducing?

Young Japanese women don't find Japanese men as attractive as marriage partners, given the expectations placed upon women, and the way many of them were treated as wives. Not everyone is willing to cave to tradition and be a submissive drudge.

Korean soap operas heavy on romantic themes are popular in Japan for good reasons.
23 posted on 12/18/2012 7:28:00 PM PST by Nepeta
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To: sickoflibs
I assume that suicide is no longer popular there post WWII.

Japan has one of the highest suicide rates in the world. (Ranked 6th, I believe.) Suicide is the leading cause of death for men ages 20-44. There is even a forest in Japan known as the "Suicide Forest" (Aokigahara Forest) where people go to kill themselves. I saw a documentary on it. Very sad.

24 posted on 12/18/2012 7:42:42 PM PST by ponygirl (Be Breitbart.)
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To: BobL

Well, that might be a part of it. But I don’t think it is even a large contributing factor.

When I was sent to Japan on business, I spent a couple days out and about, getting out of the hotel where we were having all the meetings and seeing Tokyo. What I saw was very interesting.

First, there seemed to be quite a few young men who were completely oblivious to women and girls around them. Had no interest. They were completely focused on the nerdy stuff they were doing with computers, phones, etc.

Second, the cost of living is pretty high. You have to have a pretty good job to have a wife with children at home, and our hosts explained to us that after 1992 or thereabouts, salaries and job wage growth really started to go downhill... and even back in the late 90’s, the older men were worried whether young men would start putting off getting married and having families because the economic situation was getting pretty shaky.

In recent reading of the Japanese economic situation, I think you’re wrong on the issue of women not wanting husbands and or children. I see now quite frequent mentions of “herbivore men” who have no interest in women or sex (with anyone) and who are living with their parents into their late 20’s and 30’s, because their jobs don’t pay enough to break out on their own. These guys just show little interest, if any, in women or dating - which is sort of a pre-requisite for marriage and childbearing, yea?

People in the US better start paying attention to the economic situation in Japan. It’s not good, and in the next three to five years, it’s about to get worse. A lot worse. And it will have ramifications for the US as well.


25 posted on 12/18/2012 7:43:49 PM PST by NVDave
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To: BobL

>>”Rush simply suggested that we export Liberalism to them”

From the link — “To secure the rural vote, the Liberal Democratic Party, which held power almost continuously from 1955 until 2009, devoted huge amounts of the state’s budget to infrastructure projects that were intended to revitalize the hinterland. But the revitalization never occurred. Towns were left with deserted train stations, empty hot-spring resorts and extraordinary levels of debt.”


26 posted on 12/18/2012 7:43:49 PM PST by Rameumptom (Gen X= they killed 1 in 4 of us)
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To: NVDave

Your post #25 is right on target!


27 posted on 12/18/2012 7:47:30 PM PST by The_Media_never_lie (Actually, they lie when it suits them! The crooked MS media must be defeated any way it can be done!)
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To: MinorityRepublican
"...voters need to demand that politicians address the most important issue of all: the country’s low birthrate."

China is looking to expand, so there's that.

28 posted on 12/18/2012 7:47:48 PM PST by Flag_This (Real presidents don't bow.)
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To: sickoflibs

Japan would rather build robots than have immigrants - they are the leaders in robotic technology


29 posted on 12/18/2012 8:00:06 PM PST by 11th_VA (Keep your laws OFF my Big Gulp !)
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To: NVDave
I’ve looked at the state of the Japanese economy from the standpoint of an investor.

They’re in deep doo-doo. And a big part of it is the “birth dearth” they have that is going to collapse their social welfare schemes as well as explode their medical care costs.... starting right about now.

In the next several years, you’re going to see some very, very serious economic developments come out of Japan. They’re going to have world-wide implications, and implications for the US as well.

And it's not just Japan . . . China's "one-child policy" is coming home to roost. Two aged retired parents for each working child.

And of course, in the U.S., it's the baby boomers retiring only to find that our SS has been squandered on ineffective social experiments/redistribution, brainwashing our children through public schools into socialists and earth-worshipers, and idiot projects such as obscene art subsidies.

So who is procreating? . . . Muslims have almost conquered Europe. And our open border is populating the USA.

In short, the economic collapse, accelerated by ObamaCare, will have no economic superpower to step in an mitigate the fall. We'll all fall like dominoes.

Luckily, the media will warn us and tell us what to think and do. (sarcasm off)

30 posted on 12/18/2012 8:07:15 PM PST by AUTiger83
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To: AUTiger83
And it's not just Japan . . . China's "one-child policy" is coming home to roost. Two aged retired parents for each working child

I've been in China for the past 18 days. I heard a LOT of talk about this. The government is, apparently, re-thinking the one-child limitation.

31 posted on 12/18/2012 8:18:13 PM PST by SomeCallMeTim ( The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them)
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To: AUTiger83
And it's not just Japan . . . China's "one-child policy" is coming home to roost. Two aged retired parents for each working child

I've been in China for the past 18 days. I heard a LOT of talk about this. The government is, apparently, re-thinking the one-child limitation.

32 posted on 12/18/2012 8:18:13 PM PST by SomeCallMeTim ( The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them)
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To: MinorityRepublican

If they would just open their doors, they could have millions of muzzlems become instant citizens and crank out millions of new “japanese” babies.

Problem solved. /s


33 posted on 12/18/2012 8:20:55 PM PST by Right Wing Assault (Dick Obama is more inexperienced now than he was before he was elected.)
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To: 2banana
Japan is the ultimate outcome of a mindless nationalistic/racialistic zeal. The same primitive impulse that led to the debacle of the Empire at the end of WWII is alive and well today.

They could selectively encourage immigration from sympatico cultures, but just as in 1945, in their insane cultural arrogance, they would rather commit suicide than survive. The result--Japanese are replaced by monkeys. Reality speaks for itself.

34 posted on 12/18/2012 8:25:01 PM PST by hinckley buzzard
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To: MinorityRepublican
Nope. The Japs will manufacture robots before they ever hire foreigners.

That actually might figure. And some day the Chinese People's Liberation Army will step ashore uncontested and find an entire nation of robots, making thirty year-old widgets.

One big circuit breaker, and the end of a nation. Japan may well disappear as a nation during the lifetimes of younger freepers here.

35 posted on 12/18/2012 8:31:51 PM PST by hinckley buzzard
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To: AUTiger83
The Japanese have had an income problem since around 1991-92 and that's their real problem.

Their system is set up so that a man doesn't get married until he saves enough money to buy a house and provide for his family. To buy a house over there you must have 50% down and good credit.

They are a society where they save much more then we do.

Women search for a mate that is established and has a good job and money to take care of her and her kids.

The problem they have had for the past 20 years is their good paying jobs and hard to find so they have put off getting married until they can save up their cash.

If they don't spend their cash their economy just stays stagnet

I deal with quite a few Japanese students and I'm seeing them 28-32 years old, single and broke. At the rate they're going they won't have kinds until they are in their 40's.

See the pattern ?

36 posted on 12/18/2012 8:33:54 PM PST by america-rules
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To: Alberta's Child
Japanese are the Eloi. Chinese are the Morlochs. Wells was right.
37 posted on 12/18/2012 8:34:40 PM PST by hinckley buzzard
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To: AUTiger83
And our open border is populating the USA.

Liberals speak with such glee when they talk about the United States being a 'brown' country in 50 years. The way they talk you'd think there weren't any 'brown' countries in the world.

There are - they're all over the place ... many, many, many 'brown' countries.

Maybe liberals would be so kind as to point out all the wonderful, highly productive, well governed and free 'brown' countries... Or even a 'brown' country where a person can buy something from a store and return it the next day... for a full refund.

We'd like to share the liberals' glee with us becoming 'brown' - they need to share more...

38 posted on 12/18/2012 8:38:31 PM PST by GOPJ (Detroit should be renamed 'Michael Mooresville'...)
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To: MinorityRepublican

NYT asks:
“Without Babies, Can Japan Survive?”

Yes, Japan will survive “as Japan”, even if their population shrinks by 50% or more.

That is because they are protective of their ethnic heritage and permit almost no one (perhaps no one at all) who is not “Japanese” by birth and ethnicity to become a Japanese citizen.

This is distinctly different from the Western world and the Euros (and Euro-Americans), who have imported others who are not “ethnically alike”, and who will eventually overwhelm the Euros by way of demographics.

Japan will remain Japan, but much of the Euro-West seems destined to eventually disappear — sinking beneath the waves of a rising tide of color...


39 posted on 12/18/2012 8:39:36 PM PST by Road Glide
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To: BobL

Well, the article certainly has the wrong prescription. More government spending will neither help the economy nor encourage people to have more children. Why have kids just to stick them in government day care centers?

Also, Europe is dying, too. I don’t know what the NYT writers are smoking that they call Sweden a success story. Have you noticed that most of the people having children these days are people with a religious faith? I’m sure the writers at the Times wouldn’t even consider that to be a factor.


40 posted on 12/18/2012 10:09:12 PM PST by Pining_4_TX (All those who were appointed to eternal life believed. Acts 13:48)
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To: MinorityRepublican

Even if Japan’s population falls by 50%, it remains Japan. In 30-40 years, our population will be 400 million, and historical America will be long dead.


41 posted on 12/18/2012 10:15:29 PM PST by rmlew ("Mosques are our barracks, minarets our bayonets, domes our helmets, the believers our soldiers.")
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To: Nepeta
"Young Japanese women don't find Japanese men as attractive as marriage partners"

I have read that they rarely marry foreigners. Is that right? Do they stay single or have loveless marriages?

42 posted on 12/18/2012 11:33:49 PM PST by UnwashedPeasant
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To: NVDave

“In recent reading of the Japanese economic situation, I think you’re wrong on the issue of women not wanting husbands and or children. I see now quite frequent mentions of “herbivore men” who have no interest in women or sex (with anyone) and who are living with their parents into their late 20’s and 30’s, because their jobs don’t pay enough to break out on their own. These guys just show little interest, if any, in women or dating - which is sort of a pre-requisite for marriage and childbearing, yea?”

That pretty much describes liberalism...so Rush was right (of course).

1) Women of options other than staying home and having kids - and a good portion of them exercise that option (not even a majority, but enough of a minority to matter).

2) Because of the above, guys simply aren’t that important to them. I don’t think that human feelings and emotions have changed that much in single generations, but other things can change. For example, if I see a pretty non-immigrant, girl, I usually give her a dirty look, since I know that she likely hates guys and there’s a good chance she carries some disease. I’m thinking those zombie guys in Japan are also sick of being treated like crap from them. When I was in Europe there were a bunch of Japanese people at our hotel, some very attractive women, so I asked one of them why they were there. She gave me one of the coldest answers I’ve ever dealt with...and I’ll never forget that. She seemed to seethe at me, for some reason.


43 posted on 12/19/2012 2:16:36 AM PST by BobL (Agenda 21...Agenda 21...Agenda 21...Agenda 21...Agenda 21... (whatever the hell that is))
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To: Pining_4_TX

“Well, the article certainly has the wrong prescription. More government spending will neither help the economy nor encourage people to have more children. Why have kids just to stick them in government day care centers?”

I agree that more daycare won’t cut it. The writer probably has a couple of kids herself and the NYT doesn’t pay much unless you’re at the very top.

But to rule out government action means to sanction the demographic collapse of the society - since there’s nothing to stop it. That’s the problem...doing nothing doesn’t work in this case, because the forces that are causing women to not have babies has tipped the balance.

So what to do? In my opinion you make child-raising a career-choice for married women. In other words you pay them a decent amount of money, maybe something like $10k for the first, $20k for the second, $30k for the third, $20k each for the fourth through 8th (maybe a bit less, who knows). These women make up for the ones that don’t want to be bothered by kids. Oh yea, and you only apply to the type of women that you want having kids (that’s the hard part to implement). As to what I mean by that - it’s an exercise for the reader.


44 posted on 12/19/2012 2:24:28 AM PST by BobL (Agenda 21...Agenda 21...Agenda 21...Agenda 21...Agenda 21... (whatever the hell that is))
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To: 2banana

No, they won’t. What happens with a death spiral?


45 posted on 12/19/2012 3:09:11 AM PST by JCBreckenridge (Texas is a state of mind. - John Steinbeck :))
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To: sickoflibs

“Eventually they will have to liberalize immigration just to staff the nursing homes, I assume that suicide is no longer popular there post WWII.”

There won’t *be* any immigrants available.


46 posted on 12/19/2012 3:10:09 AM PST by JCBreckenridge (Texas is a state of mind. - John Steinbeck :))
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To: BobL

So the government would pay the women money to raise their own children? You’ll see more marriage breakups, less marriage in general, etc.


47 posted on 12/19/2012 3:12:59 AM PST by JCBreckenridge (Texas is a state of mind. - John Steinbeck :))
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To: SomeCallMeTim

The policy is now 35 years old. It’s too late for China. They are close to losing two generations. If you run back from 65, that means that everyone from 65 to 30 would be affected by this policy.

If it runs another 10 years, China is finished.


48 posted on 12/19/2012 3:18:44 AM PST by JCBreckenridge (Texas is a state of mind. - John Steinbeck :))
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To: MinorityRepublican

BFL.


49 posted on 12/19/2012 3:34:39 AM PST by CommieCutter
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To: JCBreckenridge

“So the government would pay the women money to raise their own children? You’ll see more marriage breakups, less marriage in general, etc.”

Not if they had to stay together to collect the dough, which would also be required. No reason to subsidize single-parent homes, that’s as bad as what’s happening now.


50 posted on 12/19/2012 4:40:17 AM PST by BobL (Agenda 21...Agenda 21...Agenda 21...Agenda 21...Agenda 21... (whatever the hell that is))
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