Skip to comments.Without Babies, Can Japan Survive?
Posted on 12/18/2012 6:35:11 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
THE first grade class at the elementary school in Nanmoku, about 85 miles from Tokyo, has just a single student this year. The local school system that five decades ago taught 1,250 elementary school children is now educating just 37. Many of the towns elegant wooden homes are abandoned. Where generations of cedar loggers, sweet potato farmers and factory workers once made their lives, monkeys now reside. The only sounds at night are the cries of deer and the wail of an occasional ambulance.
Nanmokus plight is Japans fate. Faced with an aging society, a depopulating countryside and economic stagnation, the country has struggled for decades to address its challenges. As Japan goes to the polls on Dec. 16 for parliamentary elections that will most likely mean the seventh prime minister in six years, voters need to demand that politicians address the most important issue of all: the countrys low birthrate.
Sadly, this issue is hardly being discussed on the campaign trail. Instead, parties are promising to lavish more money on special interests like construction companies, the main beneficiaries of public works spending.
Nowhere is the rapid aging of Japan more visible than in rural towns like Nanmoku, where 56 percent of local residents are over 65. Over the next 25 years, the proportion of Japans population that is elderly will rise from almost one in four to one in three. Sales of adult diapers will soon surpass those of baby diapers.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Japan has a VERY restrictive immigration policy and will survive as a smaller Japan.
We, on the other hand...
We have forty or fifty million illegals we would be happy to send them...
The only shortcut would be a significant increase in immigration, a deeply controversial subject in Japan.
Japan will go through some hard times, but will survive. With immigration, they will become just another province in the Caliphate.
In fact they had a massive import of Pakistanis at the time. One egghead in Japan decided they are genetic siblings to japanese and pushed that idea to the government.
Could it be that the population moved to other areas of Japan. Tokyo has a pretty big population. This story could be said in many small towns in America.
They have a serious problem there, at least in the next few decades.
Eventually they will have to liberalize immigration just to staff the nursing homes, I assume that suicide is no longer popular there post WWII.
Chesterton on birth control/population control: In 1925 Chesterton wrote an introduction to Charles Dickens A Christmas Carol in which he said that The answer to anyone who talks about the surplus population is to ask him, whether he is part of the surplus population; or if not, how he knows he is not.
Chesterton on birth control/population control:
In 1925 Chesterton wrote an introduction to Charles Dickens A Christmas Carol in which he said that The answer to anyone who talks about the surplus population is to ask him, whether he is part of the surplus population; or if not, how he knows he is not.
If they need a Stud Service, I will carry Laz’s luggage and be quite happy to handle the leftovers.
Nope. The Japs will manufacture robots before they ever hire foreigners.
Third, both the government and companies should encourage more women to enter the labor force with high-quality jobs on a par with men and offer incentives to women to return to work after childbirth. In places where these sorts of reforms have taken hold, from France to Sweden, the result has been a boost to the birthrate and the economy.
Pay moms to stay hoome and have a scad of children. Subsudize the scad.
Oh well. A nice empty place for us rednecks to move to when life here becomes unbearable. And I hear it's beautiful.
Capitalism depends on growth to prosper. I think the prospects for Japan are grim. But it will be an interesting experiment to watch.
Personally, I think history has simply run its course there. Once a society gets to the point where it is heavily urbanized and has such a high standard of living, it naturally does whatever it takes to maintain it and continue to improve on it — even if it means eliminating all the difficulty and uncertainties of raising kids.
Till our women had no more children
And our men lost reason and faith
And the gods of the copybook headings said,
“The wages of sin is death.”
However, on the far side of that, Japan will end up with an efficient, automated society, with a small population and the ability to run a large national economy with just a core group of producers. That could be a good thing.
To put it another way: Think of the US with a population of perhaps 200 Million. Imagine that we've got rid of all the moochers. All the lazy people, the derelicts. We're left with an efficient, automated society, we have a vast infrastructure in place, and we have a total population of 200 million, all of whom are genuine producers.
We'd have a wonderful society.
Japan will have pain -- but on the far side of that pain, Japan may have a wonderful society.
Sounds wonderful! Algore and the other evironmentalists long for the United States to become as ideal as Japan.
Thus, an intelligent immigrant to the US or other English speaking country can become proficient in English in a relatively short period of time.
I volunteer my services for the fansub community in America on occasion. Based on the last Animexpo here in L.A. and from what my friends told me, there is a massive flight out of Japan. Been to Tokyo and the prefectures to visit my college buddy who teaches English there in a gakuen’ or high school, he also notices a LOT of the upper grades getting less and less students.
I’ve looked at the state of the Japanese economy from the standpoint of an investor.
They’re in deep doo-doo. And a big part of it is the “birth dearth” they have that is going to collapse their social welfare schemes as well as explode their medical care costs.... starting right about now.
In the next several years, you’re going to see some very, very serious economic developments come out of Japan. They’re going to have world-wide implications, and implications for the US as well.
“Does anyone know why Japan has suddenly stopped reproducing?”
Back in the early 90s, when Japan looked like they would take over the world (much less the US) economically, Rush simply suggested that we export Liberalism to them.
We did, and they have now paid the price for a generation. Even 20 years ago Japanese women knew that their job was to stay home and raise the next generation...now they all work and want nothing to do with the beasts that they used to refer to as husbands.
They’re already working on robots to tend to this exact need.
They’re not going to liberalize immigration. Period, end of story. The NY Times is simply full of mental flatulence... as is their normal state.
Japan has one of the highest suicide rates in the world. (Ranked 6th, I believe.) Suicide is the leading cause of death for men ages 20-44. There is even a forest in Japan known as the "Suicide Forest" (Aokigahara Forest) where people go to kill themselves. I saw a documentary on it. Very sad.
Well, that might be a part of it. But I don’t think it is even a large contributing factor.
When I was sent to Japan on business, I spent a couple days out and about, getting out of the hotel where we were having all the meetings and seeing Tokyo. What I saw was very interesting.
First, there seemed to be quite a few young men who were completely oblivious to women and girls around them. Had no interest. They were completely focused on the nerdy stuff they were doing with computers, phones, etc.
Second, the cost of living is pretty high. You have to have a pretty good job to have a wife with children at home, and our hosts explained to us that after 1992 or thereabouts, salaries and job wage growth really started to go downhill... and even back in the late 90’s, the older men were worried whether young men would start putting off getting married and having families because the economic situation was getting pretty shaky.
In recent reading of the Japanese economic situation, I think you’re wrong on the issue of women not wanting husbands and or children. I see now quite frequent mentions of “herbivore men” who have no interest in women or sex (with anyone) and who are living with their parents into their late 20’s and 30’s, because their jobs don’t pay enough to break out on their own. These guys just show little interest, if any, in women or dating - which is sort of a pre-requisite for marriage and childbearing, yea?
People in the US better start paying attention to the economic situation in Japan. It’s not good, and in the next three to five years, it’s about to get worse. A lot worse. And it will have ramifications for the US as well.
>>”Rush simply suggested that we export Liberalism to them”
From the link — “To secure the rural vote, the Liberal Democratic Party, which held power almost continuously from 1955 until 2009, devoted huge amounts of the states budget to infrastructure projects that were intended to revitalize the hinterland. But the revitalization never occurred. Towns were left with deserted train stations, empty hot-spring resorts and extraordinary levels of debt.”
Your post #25 is right on target!
China is looking to expand, so there's that.
Japan would rather build robots than have immigrants - they are the leaders in robotic technology
Theyre in deep doo-doo. And a big part of it is the birth dearth they have that is going to collapse their social welfare schemes as well as explode their medical care costs.... starting right about now.
In the next several years, youre going to see some very, very serious economic developments come out of Japan. Theyre going to have world-wide implications, and implications for the US as well.
And it's not just Japan . . . China's "one-child policy" is coming home to roost. Two aged retired parents for each working child.
And of course, in the U.S., it's the baby boomers retiring only to find that our SS has been squandered on ineffective social experiments/redistribution, brainwashing our children through public schools into socialists and earth-worshipers, and idiot projects such as obscene art subsidies.
So who is procreating? . . . Muslims have almost conquered Europe. And our open border is populating the USA.
In short, the economic collapse, accelerated by ObamaCare, will have no economic superpower to step in an mitigate the fall. We'll all fall like dominoes.
Luckily, the media will warn us and tell us what to think and do. (sarcasm off)
I've been in China for the past 18 days. I heard a LOT of talk about this. The government is, apparently, re-thinking the one-child limitation.
I've been in China for the past 18 days. I heard a LOT of talk about this. The government is, apparently, re-thinking the one-child limitation.
If they would just open their doors, they could have millions of muzzlems become instant citizens and crank out millions of new “japanese” babies.
Problem solved. /s
They could selectively encourage immigration from sympatico cultures, but just as in 1945, in their insane cultural arrogance, they would rather commit suicide than survive. The result--Japanese are replaced by monkeys. Reality speaks for itself.
That actually might figure. And some day the Chinese People's Liberation Army will step ashore uncontested and find an entire nation of robots, making thirty year-old widgets.
One big circuit breaker, and the end of a nation. Japan may well disappear as a nation during the lifetimes of younger freepers here.
Their system is set up so that a man doesn't get married until he saves enough money to buy a house and provide for his family. To buy a house over there you must have 50% down and good credit.
They are a society where they save much more then we do.
Women search for a mate that is established and has a good job and money to take care of her and her kids.
The problem they have had for the past 20 years is their good paying jobs and hard to find so they have put off getting married until they can save up their cash.
If they don't spend their cash their economy just stays stagnet
I deal with quite a few Japanese students and I'm seeing them 28-32 years old, single and broke. At the rate they're going they won't have kinds until they are in their 40's.
See the pattern ?
Liberals speak with such glee when they talk about the United States being a 'brown' country in 50 years. The way they talk you'd think there weren't any 'brown' countries in the world.
There are - they're all over the place ... many, many, many 'brown' countries.
Maybe liberals would be so kind as to point out all the wonderful, highly productive, well governed and free 'brown' countries... Or even a 'brown' country where a person can buy something from a store and return it the next day... for a full refund.
We'd like to share the liberals' glee with us becoming 'brown' - they need to share more...
“Without Babies, Can Japan Survive?”
Yes, Japan will survive “as Japan”, even if their population shrinks by 50% or more.
That is because they are protective of their ethnic heritage and permit almost no one (perhaps no one at all) who is not “Japanese” by birth and ethnicity to become a Japanese citizen.
This is distinctly different from the Western world and the Euros (and Euro-Americans), who have imported others who are not “ethnically alike”, and who will eventually overwhelm the Euros by way of demographics.
Japan will remain Japan, but much of the Euro-West seems destined to eventually disappear — sinking beneath the waves of a rising tide of color...
Well, the article certainly has the wrong prescription. More government spending will neither help the economy nor encourage people to have more children. Why have kids just to stick them in government day care centers?
Also, Europe is dying, too. I don’t know what the NYT writers are smoking that they call Sweden a success story. Have you noticed that most of the people having children these days are people with a religious faith? I’m sure the writers at the Times wouldn’t even consider that to be a factor.
Even if Japan’s population falls by 50%, it remains Japan. In 30-40 years, our population will be 400 million, and historical America will be long dead.
I have read that they rarely marry foreigners. Is that right? Do they stay single or have loveless marriages?
“In recent reading of the Japanese economic situation, I think youre wrong on the issue of women not wanting husbands and or children. I see now quite frequent mentions of herbivore men who have no interest in women or sex (with anyone) and who are living with their parents into their late 20s and 30s, because their jobs dont pay enough to break out on their own. These guys just show little interest, if any, in women or dating - which is sort of a pre-requisite for marriage and childbearing, yea?”
That pretty much describes liberalism...so Rush was right (of course).
1) Women of options other than staying home and having kids - and a good portion of them exercise that option (not even a majority, but enough of a minority to matter).
2) Because of the above, guys simply aren’t that important to them. I don’t think that human feelings and emotions have changed that much in single generations, but other things can change. For example, if I see a pretty non-immigrant, girl, I usually give her a dirty look, since I know that she likely hates guys and there’s a good chance she carries some disease. I’m thinking those zombie guys in Japan are also sick of being treated like crap from them. When I was in Europe there were a bunch of Japanese people at our hotel, some very attractive women, so I asked one of them why they were there. She gave me one of the coldest answers I’ve ever dealt with...and I’ll never forget that. She seemed to seethe at me, for some reason.
“Well, the article certainly has the wrong prescription. More government spending will neither help the economy nor encourage people to have more children. Why have kids just to stick them in government day care centers?”
I agree that more daycare won’t cut it. The writer probably has a couple of kids herself and the NYT doesn’t pay much unless you’re at the very top.
But to rule out government action means to sanction the demographic collapse of the society - since there’s nothing to stop it. That’s the problem...doing nothing doesn’t work in this case, because the forces that are causing women to not have babies has tipped the balance.
So what to do? In my opinion you make child-raising a career-choice for married women. In other words you pay them a decent amount of money, maybe something like $10k for the first, $20k for the second, $30k for the third, $20k each for the fourth through 8th (maybe a bit less, who knows). These women make up for the ones that don’t want to be bothered by kids. Oh yea, and you only apply to the type of women that you want having kids (that’s the hard part to implement). As to what I mean by that - it’s an exercise for the reader.
No, they won’t. What happens with a death spiral?
“Eventually they will have to liberalize immigration just to staff the nursing homes, I assume that suicide is no longer popular there post WWII.”
There won’t *be* any immigrants available.
So the government would pay the women money to raise their own children? You’ll see more marriage breakups, less marriage in general, etc.
The policy is now 35 years old. It’s too late for China. They are close to losing two generations. If you run back from 65, that means that everyone from 65 to 30 would be affected by this policy.
If it runs another 10 years, China is finished.
“So the government would pay the women money to raise their own children? Youll see more marriage breakups, less marriage in general, etc.”
Not if they had to stay together to collect the dough, which would also be required. No reason to subsidize single-parent homes, that’s as bad as what’s happening now.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.