GDP SOARS PAST EXPECTATIONS, RISING 3.1 PERCENT

TBI ^ | 12-20-2012 | Matthew Boesler

[blam]

GDP SOARS PAST EXPECTATIONS, RISING 3.1 PERCENT

Matthew Boesler
December 20, 2012

U.S. economic output rose 3.1 percent in Q3 versus consensus estimates of a 2.8 percent gain.

An increase in nonfarm private inventories was one of the largest single drivers of growth, contributing 1.1 percentage points to the number.

Personal consumption growth came in at 1.6 percent versus expectations of a 1.4 percent rise.

Below, the full text from the BEA:

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2012 (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.3 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.7 percent (see "Revisions" on page 3). The third estimate has not greatly changed the general picture of the economy for the third quarter except that personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is now showing a modest pickup, and imports is now showing a downturn.

(snip)

[Former Proud Canadian]

Happy days are here again!!!!!

[Perdogg]

Govt spending and inventories account for half of it.

[IYAS9YAS]

I’d be willing to bet a significant portion of that is in firearms and ammunition categories.

[pgkdan]

B.S.

[Buckeye McFrog]

They pulled the 2009 stimulus out from the mattress and started spending it on street paving projects shortly before the election.

[listenhillary]

What percentage of the GDP growth was government?

Not sure why they include B.S. as a product.

[Wiser now]

I don’t believe it.
Personal observation: we finished our shoopping last night at a local Walmart.
Five days before Christmas the store was no more busy than a week night in March. There was no wait at the cash registers.
I had expect the merchandise to be picked over, with some bare shelves in some areas.But the selection was what I would have expected at the beginning of November.
I saw no evidence of good sales volume at all.

[Wyatt's Torch]

Final Q3 GDP Prints 3.1% - Government, Inventories Account For Half; Fixed Investment Negligible

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/20/2012 08:46 -0500

Moments ago the BEA released the final Q3 GDP number, which printed at 3.1%, up from the second GDP guesstimate 2.7% reported last month, the first 3%+ print since Q4 2011 when, just like today, everything was coming up roses and when growth was on the horizon. Sadly, just like then, reading between the lines reveals more of the same disappointing components, with nearly half of the entire 3.1% annualized growth being derived from Government (0.75) and Inventories (0.73%), combined adding 1.48% (more than in the second revision) of the 3.1% print. Annualized Personal Consumption as a portion of the final number rose modestly from 0.99% to 1.12%, but still is well below the 1.42% in the first Q3 GDP estimate. It is this number that will be closely watched once the preliminary Q4 GDP number is released in a one month. Recall that Q4 GDP is currently tracking between 0.5% and 1.5% depending who you ask. Finally, the most important real growth factor for the US economy - fixed investment - remained stubbornly flat, at a mere 0.12%, virtually unchanged from the first revision's 0.10%. In other words, in Q3 companies stubbornly refused to invest in capital investment i.e. CapEx, and will continue to do so as long as the Fed makes "investing" in dividends and buybacks a more rewarding option. Expect the same pattern to continue in Q4 only this time the Sandy and Fiscal Cliff excuses will be espoused by all the economic apologists.

Source: BEA

[Perdogg]

0.75% Government spending and 0.73% inventories.

[ChildOfThe60s]

If I understand it correctly, GDP is also adjusted to account for current inflation. As we all know, the government is *seriously* understating inflation. If Shadow Stats is correct (I believe them) inflation is actually running at a rate that would make this a negative GDP.

[jdege]

We have to stop including government spending in GDP.

[Little Ray]

The rest is probably a side effect of inflation.

[AU72]

Increased inventories are not necessarily a good sign. If the goods aren’t moving the production has to cut back.

[ctdonath2]

And government spending rose, what, 7.5%?

[Night Hides Not]

Increased inventories are not necessarily a good sign. If the goods aren’t moving the production has to cut back.

+1...as inventories are utilized, that will negatively impact GDP over the next two quarters.

[WorkerbeeCitizen]

its a miracle - something out of nothing

[frogjerk]

Especially if those federal inventories are recently purchased stockpiles of bullets.

[Lazamataz]

Pravda lied better. These guys aren’t even slightly credible.

[concerned about politics]

Urbansurvival...

Now, if you look at the revisions table in the press release, you will see this is REAL GDP (after backing out inflation) The current dollar estimate is that GDP was up 5.9% on dollars only, which is so close to the M3b number I could spit.

The only thing keeping "us" alive is printed money - lots of it.

I think the Mayan calender is right. I'm not talking about the earth changes - I'm talking about TPTB being "outed" for what they really are. The MSM can't cover for them very much longer.

The problem is spending. There's no way around it. Neither party will do anything about the free lunch crowd, so things are going to have to drastically change on their own, because we've run out of options. Some other system, other than a PTB system, is inevitable.

The people, this time around, will learn to take care of their own. There's a valuable lesson to be learned here. "If you don't work - you shouldn't eat" or "Thou shall not covet thy neighbors goods."