Skip to comments.So what’s Plan C?
Posted on 12/21/2012 7:59:57 AM PST by SeekAndFind
What happens when Plan B fails? That answer may matter less than the question of what happens to the man who promised Plan B would work in the first place. Chris Cillizza writes that John Boehner climbed onto a big limb with Plan B --- and then watched as his own caucus sawed it off:
To be clear: This was a gambit by Boehner designed to be a show of force to President Obama. This was Boehner putting himself out on a limb in hopes wavering members would follow him. This vote mattered to Boehner.
And he lost it.
Its not clear what the fallout within the chamber will be there is no obvious challenger to Boehner as Speaker but one could, of course, appear in the wake of this moment but heres what we now know:
1. Any bargaining power Boehner had with Obama or hoped to have is gone. The goal of passing Plan B was to be able to say to the president and Senate Democrats that House Republicans were the only people who had passed something that would avert the fiscal cliff. Now, not so much. Obama already had the upper hand in these negotiations he was reelected just over a month ago and Boehner knew it. What happened on the House floor Thursday night made a bad bargaining situation for Boehner that much worse.
Actually, that’s not just bad news for John Boehner. It’s bad news for Barack Obama, too. In order to negotiate on these issues — either before or after plunging off the fiscal cliff — Obama has to win a vote in the House, too. That means he needs a negotiator who can deliver on a package, presumably with enough Republican votes to get political cover on a compromise. Boehner can’t reliably do so, thanks to the internal divisions in the House Republican caucus, which means that Obama doesn’t have a lot of leverage in the lower chamber, either.
On the other hand, Chris Frates writes at National Journal, perhaps this was the strategy all along:
But behind the rhetoric there was a strategy at play. The plan appeared designed to move Obama toward the speakers position of smaller tax increases and larger spending cuts while helping conservatives wrap their heads around the idea of voting for a tax hike.
The speaker struggled to round up GOP votes for a package that only would have raised taxes on millionaires. If Boehner had trouble selling his own package, it sends a message to Obama that his position, raising taxes on people who make over $400,000, is going to be even tougher to pass.
Amid rank-and-file House Republicans, there was growing opposition to the Boehner-Obama talks. If that feeling was allowed to fester, Boehner feared he would not be able to muster enough support for an eventual deal with Obama. Thursdays vote was supposed to ensure that conservatives would have their fingerprints on any final result by bringing them into the deal-making process.
Though Boehner couldn’t get his caucus on record supporting a tax hike, his voter counters now have a much better idea of how many Republicans could get behind that approach.
That’s important because if Obama and Boehner strike a deal, he won’t need to deliver all the votes himself. An Obama-blessed package will win support from House Democrats, who opposed Plan B. Most Republican insiders believe Boehner only has to deliver about half his members to keep his speakership.
CBS’ Brian Montopoli and Steve Chaggaris are less optimistic:
Boehner sent House Republicans home for Christmas after last night’s legislative collapse, ensuring nothing will be passed until Dec. 27 at the earliest, when members are due back in town. That leaves Boehner and President Obama to keep negotiating – something that ground to a halt after Boehner announced he was moving forward with his “Plan B” earlier in the week.
But the two are at a stalemate, even though they’re not that far apart in their proposals. In their most recent offers, Mr. Obama was offering $1.2 trillion in revenue and $800 billion in spending cuts; Boehner was offering $1 trillion in revenue and $1 trillion in spending cuts. Also, the president agreed to let the Bush-era tax cuts expire on those making over $400,000; Boehner is supporting a $1 million threshold, to the consternation of some in his party who don’t want anyone’s taxes to go up.
The president is hoping to get to Hawaii for Christmas – he was planning on leaving town today but without a “fiscal cliff” deal, it’s unclear whether he’ll get to the Aloha State at all for the holiday. Meantime, Boehner wakes up today with the realization that he has a seemingly irreparable schism within his own ranks: there are just enough Republicans who refuse to budge on taxes and are demanding more spending cuts, especially on entitlement programs such as Medicare, therefore gumming up the works for any progress Boehner wants to make on the “fiscal cliff”.
Ultimately, negotiations between the president and Boehner might be over, especially since it’s clear to all parties after last night that Boehner doesn’t have the votes to get any compromise through the House.
To paraphrase Animal House, it’s not over until they say it’s over. Obama doesn’t have anyone else to negotiate with except John Boehner, and vice versa. That was the outcome of the election, and barring a change in Speaker, the two are negotiating partners for the next two years. And Obama won’t want a change in Speaker, because it’s likely to be Eric Cantor, who will be more difficult as a negotiator.
Therefore, I suspect that Obama and Boehner might find common ground on a Plan C to kick the can down the road another two months. They can apply the full AMT patch that way and get the IRS out of the way, while then staging a new deadline that will force Republicans to tie the debt ceiling to the tax debate rather than just entitlement reform, which has been the GOP strategy. That will allow both sides to avoid the immediate consequences of the fiscal cliff and get out of town for the holidays, while setting up the next showdown.
Otherwise, we have what our friend Duke calls the Obamamite Maneuver: Call a vote on Obama’s proposal in the House and have all Republicans vote “present.” That way Obama owns the consequences of his bad economic policy without any Republican fingerprints, the fiscal cliff gets avoided, and the debt ceiling remains a bargaining chip for the GOP in February to get real entitlement reform and deficit reduction in place. At least that would be less embarrassing than what happened yesterday in the House.
“Otherwise, we have what our friend Duke calls the Obamamite Maneuver: Call a vote on Obamas proposal in the House and have all Republicans vote present. That way Obama owns the consequences of his bad economic policy without any Republican fingerprints, the fiscal cliff gets avoided, and the debt ceiling remains a bargaining chip for the GOP in February to get real entitlement reform and deficit reduction in place.”
The vote should be NO.
Anyone who votes ‘present’ doesn’t belong in Washington. They are just a wimp lacking the ‘attachments’ necessary to fix the mess we are in.
Plan C Boner cries
It should be that we get rid of Boner and elect Trey Gowdy speaker.
Am waiting for plans “F” and “U”. If the presidential and senatorial campaigns made an issue of those “hidden” AHCA (Obamacare) fees and taxes we wouldn’t be going through this b/s..check out http://www.theusmat.com/ ..Plus we would have won both the senate and the presidency
Make permanent the "Bush" tax cuts maybe with a few percentage points shaved off for everyone, pass the bill on a 100% unanimous Republican vote, send it to the Senate, hold a press conference to announce that we've cut taxes for everyone, then go home for the Holidays!
You forgot the spending side -— GO BACK TO THE 2008 BUDGET AND MAKE *THAT* THE BASELINE.
Plan C is to go over the fiscal cliff and for each party to point the finger of blame at the other party. Each party will largely succeed in convincing its own base, which is why this is likely a foreordained, inevitable outcome.
There has been too little attention to what happens when we go over the cliff. I have expected this all along and do not feel like there has been adequate attention paid to the ramifications. There have been pieces designed to scare the heck out of everyone. No real attention has been paid to a set of cold hard realities.
For my part, I think the short term consequences of the fiscal cliff are worth the long term pain. I expect that the price will be quick and steep, but less in the long term than the slow bleed we have presently.
I also think the fiscal cliff will cripple the President’s second-term agenda.
I am not especially concerned about the economy. I think the financial markets have already factored in much of this, and there is something stabilizing about this outcome in terms of the deficit. I’m actually more concerned about what this does short and long term to our national defense. The cuts are beyond anything reasonable. Does anyone here have any insights?
Finally, were I in the House I would have voted for Boehner’s Plan, and it is a shame that Republicans could not muster the votes. The reason I believe this is that I don’t think it would have really raised much revenue. Those who make more than $1 million per year are quite few and they tend only to be there for a year or two or three. I very strongly believe that these individuals can shift their income intertemporally in ways that truly mitigate the tax consequences of Obama’s higher rates. Plan B, in short, would be largely a faux increase in rates, and one that the country could easily sustain.
I tend to approve of Boehner ... He has given away almost nothing in putting forwared Plan B, and he has made himself look like the one guy in the room willing to meet in the middle.
With that written, I think Boehner’s best negotiating position now with Obama is to threaten to resign his speakership. I really do think this would be Obama’s worst nightmare. The thing about threats is that you have to be willing to follow through if those who you threaten balk. And I think Boehner is almost there.
I won’t be surprised if Boehner’s resignation is the next shoe to drop.
Plan B was based on discrimination—Discrimination against those who work hard and dare to be successful. In other words, millionaires.
I applaud the true conservatives who prevented this repugnant Marxist proposal from passing. In the short run, they may have saved the Republican Party from itself. Boner, however, needs to go now.
Otherwise obama leads us off the cliff, we get a tax increase but we also get real spending cuts and when he comes aroung in February looking for an increase on the Debt Ceiling tell him to pound sand.
i would have loved to see Allen West as Speaker.
We've been had. Here we are arguing about a tax on anyone creating over $1 million in wealth in a given year while our purchasing power at the grocery store has been cut by over a third. We are being robbed while government eagerly uses that newly printed money to purchase that one-third portion of groceries that we can no longer afford.
And sadly, our Republican House will give it to him just as they did 16 months ago. That will be Plan C, and it will be high treason against the American people. Government is now our enemy no matter what letter happens to follow their names.
I prefer the 2006 budget - the last one passed by a GOP Congress. The 2006 deficit was one-tenth of what it was last year.
Plan C: Tell Obama and the world that the ball his in his court, and go home for Christmas. Tell him the Republicans in the House will come back when he and the Senate have a bill to vote on that the Tea Party will pass.
The Republicans have all the power they need.As all spending bills originate in the House, the Republicans can defund the socialist enterprise and then they can refuse to raise the debt limit. Just refuse. No dealing. No whining. Just refuse. If they do that then, willy nilly, reform will occur. Either the president will make a real overt grab for dictatorial power or/and the shock will begin to correct the impossible economic situation that is the abyss of America’s future. If he tries the overt thing he will probably fail because many of the mushier liberals will desert him. They still exist and there are actually a lot of them. They want a “progressive” state that is socialist without the obvious Caesar stuff. Caesar scares then even though that is what their whole philosophy leads to.
These millionaires who you defend voted for Obama overwhelmingly. If a bunch of rich east and west liberal elitists want there taxes raised why should we spend any political capital helping them? It like fighting for Muslims...they don’t like you no matter.
This reminds me of the commie chinese in the late 50’s and 60’s. The elite educators thought they would be in charge but they were sent to the cornfields to muck manure.
A quick review of the chinese cultural revolution might be in order:
Certainly the high-profile Hollywood and Buffett-types supported the Kenyan, but most of the people I know who happen to have net worths in excess of $1 million, supported Romney.
I suggest you consult The Millionaire Next Door by Thomas J. Stanley and William D. Danko. They explode a number of the myths that have sprung up regarding millionaires, including who the real millionaires are (Hint: Small business owners).
Plan C was hope the Mayans were right and we wouldn’t have to worry about it. Now we’re on plan D.
On August 22, 1966, Mao issued a notice to stop “all police intervention in Red Guard tactics and actions.” Those in the police force who defied this notice were labeled “counter-revolutionaries.” Mao, drawing on his experiences from prior to 1949, suggested that “the sign of a true revolutionary was his desire to kill.” Mao’s praise for rebellion was effectively an endorsement for the actions of the Red Guards, which grew increasingly violent. Public security in China deteriorated rapidly as a result of central officials lifting restraints on violent behavior. Xie Fuzhi, the national police chief, said it was “no big deal” if Red Guards were beating “bad people” to death.
A new survey from Spectrem Group found that 68% of millionaires (those with investments of $1 million or more) support raising taxes on those with $1 million or more in income. Fully 61% of those with net worths of $5 million or more support the tax on million-plus earners.
I note that the sample size and composition is not reported.
By the way, this has nothing to do with my original question about the percentage of millionaires that voted for Obama.
Nice try, though, Comrade.
Plan C is the GOP cries.
Boehner’s problem is the same as America’s: the RINOs who vote for Reid and Obama’s bills!
If he’d crack down on them we’d have a united caucus.
Pretty sharp post!
Plan B wasn’t so bad, Boehner just didn’t work hard enough to make it palatable to his conservatives... just a few spending cuts would have done it.
And after we ‘go off the cliff’ Reid will have bills to cut taxes for the middle class, leaving the higher rates for the “rich”, and the media will beat Republicans to death for opposing them.
It’s a secret ballot but 10 of the 12 richest counties went for Obama. Hey the Kim Kardashian nation spoke. They could care less about the deficit ,GDP unemployment...price of oil. They want their free birth control pills and health care with no cuts in benifits. And they want the rich to pay. Well give it to them good and hard. When the dems crash this thing I don’t think the Republicans should even be in the car. Let Obama own this.