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The Shale Revolution's Shifting Geopolitics
The New York Times ^ | December 25, 2012 | Alan Riley

Posted on 12/25/2012 12:51:27 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

The shale energy revolution is likely to shift the tectonic plates of global power in ways that are largely beneficial to the West and reinforce U.S. power and influence during the first half of this century. Yet most public discussion of shale’s potential either focuses on the alleged environmental dangers of fracking or on how shale will affect the market price of natural gas. Both discussions blind policy makers to the true scale of the shale revolution.

The real impact stems from its effect on the oil market. Shale gas offers the means to vastly increase the supply of fossil fuels for transportation, which will cut into the rising demand for oil — fueled in part by China’s economic growth — that has dominated energy policy making over the last decade.

There are two major factors in play here. First, the same shale extraction technology of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing can be employed whether the rocks are oil-bearing or gas-bearing. We have already seen over half a million barrels of oil a day flowing from the Bakken field in North Dakota. The recent Harvard-based Belfer Center report — “Oil: The Next Revolution” — suggests that shale oil could be providing America with as much as 6 million barrels a day by 2020. The United States imported only 11 million barrels of crude oil a day in 2011. Given the potential for offshore and conventional domestic oil production, this would suggest that by 2020 America could be near energy independence in oil...

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs; Front Page News
KEYWORDS: china; energy; fracking; northdakota; oil; oilgas; shale; shalegas
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1 posted on 12/25/2012 12:51:32 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Palin was correct.


2 posted on 12/25/2012 12:56:32 PM PST by Paladin2
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To: Paladin2

We should be extracting any and all energy we can. Palin WAS right.


3 posted on 12/25/2012 1:03:37 PM PST by rlmorel (1793 French Jacobins and 2012 American Liberals have a lot in common.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

New York Slimes


4 posted on 12/25/2012 1:04:11 PM PST by freekitty (Give me back my conservative vote; then find me a real conservative to vote for)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

China’s still eating our coal...time to jack up the prices..oh wait...Obama’s closing coal plants left & right...which means coal mines are closing in record numbers....idiot.

nevermind.


5 posted on 12/25/2012 1:07:13 PM PST by stylin19a (obama -> Fredo smart)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; All

I read somewhere that we have about a hundred year supply of shale fuel. So should we try to extract it as fast as possible to keep prices low, or should we pay a little more so it lasts longer for our grandchildren and their families and develop renewable sources with all deliberate speed? Opinion Poll.


6 posted on 12/25/2012 1:26:37 PM PST by gleeaikin
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Yes. the size of the shale revolution is as big as the initial drilling at spindle top texas. Its also as economically and geo strategically significant as the OPEC embargoes of the 70’s and the decline of US oil production.

The last paragraph says this:

Geopolitically, the shale revolution strengthens the United States, reduces China’s energy dependence, generates a major global stimulus, which takes the Western economies off the fiscal rocks, while potentially destabilizing both the Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia. We must continue to press ahead with it.


7 posted on 12/25/2012 1:29:55 PM PST by ckilmer
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Very, very nice!

The best part is it irritates the hell out of

the 1960s Marxist-Alinsky campus radical, psycho spoiled brats who were celebrated in the establishment MSM as the most intelligent generation ever!. They are now arguably that very establishment that praised them and they hold themselves and their ideological issue in even higher regard.

They include the ruling class New Normal: Ayers, Clintons, Obamas.

They had put a substantial bunch of their eggs into the "renewable energy" flimflam basket to help them "Bring it all down, man."

8 posted on 12/25/2012 1:29:58 PM PST by WilliamofCarmichael (If modern America's Man on Horseback is out there, Get on the damn horse already!)
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To: Paladin2

drill baby drill!!!

the trick is to keep the momentum going and tell the EPA to take a hike.


9 posted on 12/25/2012 1:36:18 PM PST by Kolath
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To: ckilmer

I wonder if they are also fracking in the old Teapot Dome area.


10 posted on 12/25/2012 1:39:11 PM PST by Paladin2
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
By contrast, the outlook for Russia and Saudi Arabia seems bleak. As the decade progresses, shale will be developed worldwide and natural gas infrastructures will be constructed. It is difficult to see how the markets will avoid dropping oil prices.

I think that the author is wrong about this. Russia has a shale formation that is - get this - EIGHTY TIMES the size of the Bakken Play. It's called the Bazhenov Formation. It's located in western Siberia and the area is already criss-crossed with gas pipelines.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2012/06/04/bakken-bazhenov-shale-oil/

11 posted on 12/25/2012 1:44:39 PM PST by Gluteus Maximus
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
We have already seen over half a million barrels of oil a day flowing from the Bakken field in North Dakota.

NYT gets it wrong again....

It was 500,000 barrels of oil at the start of 2012

Now it's 750,000 barrels of oil a day...and expected to top 1 million barrels a day by the end of 2013.

In other news...the Green River Formation holds an estimated 3 trillion barrels with 1 trillion recoverable with today's technology.

As a footnote...1 trillion barrels is about equal to the rest of the worlds known reserves.

12 posted on 12/25/2012 2:15:42 PM PST by spokeshave (The only people better off today than 4 years ago are the Prisoners at Guantanamo.)
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To: spokeshave

Apart from all the high paying jobs in ND...the oil/gas boom (no pun intended) is creating $millionaires at a rate of 2000 a year.


13 posted on 12/25/2012 2:19:19 PM PST by spokeshave (The only people better off today than 4 years ago are the Prisoners at Guantanamo.)
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To: Gluteus Maximus

Every major oil producing basin has somewhere within it a world class source rock. Some, like in the Gulf of Mexico, are too deep and plastic to be considered viable. I am still waiting for announcements from the Middle East, North Africa, and South America about source rock plays. From what I have heard, the Vaca Muerta in Argentina is not living up to expectations and it has an obvious geopolitical risk. It is like gold mining. For all the placer deposits out there, one can only dream of the Mother Lode.


14 posted on 12/25/2012 3:01:54 PM PST by crusty old prospector
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

save for later


15 posted on 12/25/2012 3:02:40 PM PST by Gay State Conservative (When Robbing Peter To Pay Paul,One Can Always Count On Paul's Cooperation)
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To: Gluteus Maximus

Could that be related to their belief in the abiotic oil hypothesis?


16 posted on 12/25/2012 3:22:50 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (I'll raise $2million for Sarah Palin's presidential run. What'll you do?)
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To: gleeaikin
I read somewhere that we have about a hundred year supply of shale fuel. So should we try to extract it as fast as possible to keep prices low, or should we pay a little more so it lasts longer for our grandchildren and their families and develop renewable sources with all deliberate speed?

Eat your dessert first, life is uncertain.

Seriously, mankind adapts. Using your argument, we should have conserved whale oil for our lighting needs. There is always another technology or cultural adaptation down the road, always has been, always will be.

17 posted on 12/25/2012 4:07:38 PM PST by SandwicheGuy (*The butter acts as a lubricant and speeds up the CPU*ou)
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To: gleeaikin

Drill, baby, drill. You information comes from the same people that said peak oil is here and we would run out of oil in just a few years.


18 posted on 12/25/2012 4:28:42 PM PST by Kent1957
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To: gleeaikin
Please. No one now alive can even conceive of what the world will be like 100 years from now. Odds are, oil will sit abandoned in the ground because market forces will have driven innovation which we cannot even imagine today.
19 posted on 12/25/2012 5:07:30 PM PST by hinckley buzzard
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To: Gluteus Maximus
I believe you are right, not only about Russia but Europe as well. The fact is that globally we have just scratched the surface of shale gas/oil deposits. The possibility exists that at some point, energy will become such a cheap commodity that it no longer will drive events. Water may take its place.

Who really knows--but this is no time for shortsightedness.

20 posted on 12/25/2012 5:15:09 PM PST by hinckley buzzard
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