Skip to comments.Professor: Don't Be Surprised If There's A War Between Japan And China In The Next Year
Posted on 12/27/2012 6:50:49 AM PST by LibWhacker
Chinese planes flew near Japanese airspace Monday to assert its claims to Japan's Senkaku islands (China calls them the Diaoyu islands).
The move came just as Japan announced its new prime minister.
Hugh White, a professor at Australian National University and a former Australian defense official, believes this is the latest sign the two countries are heading to war.
And the U.S. will be dragged in.
Writing in the Sydney Morning Herald, White says we are now witnessing the types of conditions that have historically led to war despite conflict being in no one's interest.
THIS is how wars usually start: with a steadily escalating stand-off over something intrinsically worthless. So don't be too surprised if the US and Japan go to war with China next year over the uninhabited rocks that Japan calls the Senkakus and China calls the Diaoyu islands. And don't assume the war would be contained and short.
It seems almost laughably unthinkable that the world's three richest countries - two of them nuclear-armed - would go to war over something so trivial. But that is to confuse what starts a war with what causes it.
The conflict is really about China challenging the U.S. in the Pacific...
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/china-japan-senkaku-diaoyu-war-2012-12#ixzz2GGNo79r4
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
1) Collapse the US dollar and make it worthless
2) Initiate a war with China
3) Fight the war very badly
But, of course, these things would never happen.
This is a very complicated issue and, if no diplomatic out is discovered, it could get very messy.
Long before the real shooting begins, this will escalate into a trade/bond/currency war. What happens if:
1. China nationalizes US and Japanese investments in China?
2. Japan and the US nationalize Chinese investments?
3. Japan and the US bar Chinese imports?
4. China dumps US and Japanese bonds?
5. Japan and the US initiate a naval blockade of China?
The author of the piece does not mention that the US is treaty bound to defend Japanese possession of these islands. Throw that into the mix.
Did I say this would get messy?
If it did, we can take some comfort in the fact that the ChiComs would find little use for a golf-playing poofter after the war was over.
I’m with you on all of that.
I just think that — as with the “Fiscal Cliff” issue — I’m not at all sure that Obama wants a solution, wants to avoid a crisis, or wants an outcome favorable to this country.
China and Japan are having a serious disagreement here. In times past, one might look to the President of the United States to help forge a diplomatic solution. Any number of past presidents might have stepped in and helped the participants find a peaceful outcome here.
Not Obama. I would expect him to quietly and expertly piss off both parties, throw gasoline on the fire and then blame US gun owners for the “unexpected” outcome.
With Barry at the helm, that treaty isn't worth the paper it is written on.
China is all bluff. They sabre rattle just enough to satisfy their hordes.
China has painted itself into a corner. The last thing they want is for none of us idiots to buy their cheap adultrated crap which will cause massive unemployment in China and could easily cause an internal revolt. The Chinese Commy government walks a very thin tightrope.
How about we stop sending all our money to China??
Our trade deficit with China continues to increase every month. All from 49% factories which operate FIRST for the Chicoms.
When are we going to push back??
The war is coming, not clear when. Certainly China has many more nukes than publicly announced. Obama is reducing our deterrent. The Chinese figure we won’t risk cities over Pacific Islands, or anything else for that matter.
It’s coming, not clear when, could have been avoided.
However I doubt the Chinese navy is a match for us at present. That is, if we fight.
I don’t know if Obama can even recognize a crisis. To use your analogy, he just throws gasoline on every burning issue.
Someone should just nuke those uninhabited islands and put this stupidity to an end.
The rocks themselves are trivial, but they are not fighting over the rocks. They are fighting over the water around the rocks.
China against Japan...HA!....One word...GODZILLA!
...and the resources under it.
Oh no worry, the US won’t be part of it, Obama will kiss butt and let our greatest allie fend for themselves.
China has nukes and the political will to use them. Since our current regime would never respond in kind defending an ally, there would be little risk in it for them.
So far the only cities they can reach are west coast bastions of liberalism, their natural allies.
My spook friends say that Japan HAS NUKES. They are assembling stockpiled components as we speak.
They are sometimes irrational, but they are NOT stupid.
I have not war gamed this conflict, but the Japanese Navy and AF will play havoc with the Chicoms. However, the Chicoms will be able to nuke Japan using missiles at will.
Who is ready for fallout?
If the Chicoms can put a capsule into orbit, they can loft big nukes anywhere on the planet.
I guess EMP is a worry.