It is a known ploy of the hustler to make varying predictions, and then to highlight one that came true while ignoring the others; the simplest is the cold-caller who tells half the prospective clients a stock will go up, and the other half that it will go down, and then calls back the correct half.
This article illustrates that one does not actually have to predict correctly to succeed.
I don’t have the obvious expertise that this writer does, but I also successfully failed to predict the price of Crude Oil on December 31, 2012. I’m simply not writing an article to mention it.
I predict that by December of 2013, there will be a price of oil.
Our, as consumers trying to predict oil $ is about as accurate as predicting the weather without ever listening to a weather report.
As to the US oil companies hustling you, if it weren't for the shear volume, no one in their right mind would survive, much less prosper on the minuscule margin they get.
OPEC is a different animal, they just profit from luck. On the other hand, considering where and how they live, damn few of us would consider that a good luck of the draw.