Posted on 12/31/2012 6:47:37 AM PST by SoFloFreeper
In an article published on September 20, I noted that analysts seemed to be putting quite a bit of faith in the U.S. consumer's willingness and ability to boost the economy in the fourth quarter. Specifically, consensus estimates showed revenue growth for consumer discretionary names outpacing topline growth for the S&P 500 as a whole by more than 3 to 1. I suggested that underpinning the outlook for consumer discretionary names were unrealistic expectations regarding the efficacy of QE3 at producing the so-called "wealth effect."
Ultimately, I made the following prediction of my own:
...the post-QE rally has historically lasted around six weeks. This would put the rally ending just around the election and just in time for both the holiday season to disappoint in terms of the consumer coming to the rescue and the fiscal cliff debate to take center stage.
Without putting too fine a point on it, it would certainly appear that I was mostly correct. The market sold-off sharply post election, the fiscal cliff has indeed taken center stage, causing quite an unpleasant commotion, and now it appears the holiday shopping season was a spectacular disappointment.
(Excerpt) Read more at m.seekingalpha.com ...
How about depressed shoppers knowing they face 4 more years of an anti-capitalist occupying the White House?
I’m so discouraged that Americans are so freaking stupid. The public waits for information to be spoon fed from the lap dog media. In many cases, members of the public are aware the media is biased, but ignores that fact.
So, the Christmas shopping season was dismal, and there will be consequences, (layoffs). The media will spin it such that it’s presented as Bush’s fault, and the public will happily buy in.
This is so incredible, I wouldn’t believe it if I weren’t living it, witnessing first hand.
As Rush always says, if we were in a real recovery, we wouldn't need to be told we were in a recovery.
What is so amusing to me (in a way) was that I saw several news clips during the Christmas shopping season. All of them were saying, “Sales are good” and yet the mall behind them was only sprinkled with shoppers. I said then... this season is going to be a financial bust for retailers.
Best bet is that retailers believed government forecasts for more holiday spending, increased consumer confidence and an expanding economy instead of believing their own lying eyes.
Judging fromt he parking lots and store activity over the past week, I'll bet Christmas for a lot of folks happened after December 25th.
“I’ll bet Christmas for a lot of folks happened after December 25th”
I agree. I’ve talked to some friends and all of their shopping was extremely conservative. By that, I mean clothes for the kids that they needed anyways and very few high priced items. One friend “combined” her daughters gift as Christmas and her Spring birthday gift (a pair of Uggs).
I really don’t want to be lumped into the Black Friday or Christmas shopping crowd so I always do all my shopping right around November 1. We spent probably the same amount on the grandkids that we do every year but yeah, I buy them clothes and stuff. We do absolutely no adult shopping and haven’t for years.
I remember the ‘Black Friday was Great’ stories too....and I told everybody in the office to wait for the ‘disappointing shopping season’ stories right after Christmas. Its been the same for 4 years now....wishful thinking economic analysis, on the party of the so called ‘experts’ in the media.
Empty parking lots, no jobs and the threat of higher taxes and yet the msm was spinning record sales. I wasn’t going to spend a dime this year but broke down because sonny boy needed some long and short sleeved tshirts. Found some for $1.50 at Walgreens. Spent $10 so he’s stocked up. I doubt that helped Walgreens’ bottom line. Didn’t spend a dime on Christmas or New Year’s dinners. Make that no recent spending since everything was from the pantry, freezer or garden.
I also took note of the lack of overflowing parking lots, and more particularly, the lack of traffic jams.
Our office is near the commercial area of town; and, I remember Christmas seasons where I couldn’t even drive to a fast food place to get lunch...total traffic snarl.
Non of that this year. I understand that online sales are taking some of the sales away (and that’s not a good thing for local small business anyway); but, the volume was clearly down.
I had to pick something up at Wal Mart on Black Friday, in the P.M....wasn’t crowded in the least bit. Then I turned on the radio and heard about the great day retailers were having. A very Soviet experience.
I also took note of the lack of overflowing parking lots, and more particularly, the lack of traffic jams.
Our office is near the commercial area of town; and, I remember Christmas seasons where I couldn’t even drive to a fast food place to get lunch...total traffic snarl.
Non of that this year. I understand that online sales are taking some of the sales away (and that’s not a good thing for local small business anyway); but, the volume was clearly down.
I had to pick something up at Wal Mart on Black Friday, in the P.M....wasn’t crowded in the least bit. Then I turned on the radio and heard about the great day retailers were having. A very Soviet experience.
Then there is a friend of line. She goes to the mall around December 24 just to see what she will pick up during the after Christmas clearances.
In the old days, winter items were gone by February. Last year, Macys and other stores were still selling winter merchandise in May. Last spring I bought a wool sweater for 90% off.
My husband and I haven’t gotten each other a Christmas gift since the birth of our first child. (well, he will put Chapstick in my stocking... I go through that stuff like crazy!). The only adult we do shopping for is the kid’s Aunt (well, technically she is a second cousin to them but acts like an Aunt...goes to their birthdays, Godmother to the kids etc). Since she is really the only extended family that involves herself with the kids.. we do cherish her.
“Last spring I bought a wool sweater for 90% off”
What a steal! Good for you! That’s how we have to do any shopping for now on, don’t we? You know.. you are right about winter items being gone by February in the old days. I remember six inches of snow on the ground and the stores had bathing suits displayed. In fact, if you needed something for Winter (new boots or such) you had to get them by Christmas or soon afterwards... then the spring/summer stuff was rolled out.
Thrift shops are booming...my wife scores tons of designer label clothing (with tags still on) ‘donated’ by jaded/bored wives of wealthy democrats traveling to their vacation homes in Red Hampshire. $50, $75, $100 (and more) sweaters, blouses, pants, suits, blazers...all for a buck or two. Sweet.
That is SWEET! She has got to feel great wearing some expensive/good looking outfit knowing she only paid a few bucks. (she must be petite... usually I find expensive items like that is uber small sizes. .... sigh)
They have already spun it. I’ve heard them blame Hurricane Sandy and the shootings in CT for the bad shopping season. Liberals will never fault their guy or their policies, no matter what.
Frankly; I get as excited as her when she pulls out an item from Talbot’s, Chico’s, or Coldwater Creek displaying a tag of $89.95-119.95 that she paid a buck for...she was laughing at your comment about ‘uber small sizes’...that is pretty much the case...
Eventually, what was still left over disappeared. I don't know if it was sold off to a discounter or if it was recycled this year.
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