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Eve of Disaster - Why 2013 eerily looks like the world of 1913, on the cusp of the Great War.
Foreign Policy via Indian Strategic Studies ^ | January 4, 2013 | CHARLES EMMERSON

Posted on 01/06/2013 8:44:39 PM PST by neverdem

Edited on 01/06/2013 9:17:57 PM PST by Sidebar Moderator. [history]

The leading power of the age is in relative decline, beset by political crisis at home and by steadily eroding economic prowess. Rising powers are jostling for position in the four corners of the world, some seeking a new place for themselves within the current global order, others questioning its very legitimacy. Democracy and despotism are locked in uneasy competition. A world economy is interconnected as never before by flows of money, trade, and people, and by the unprecedented spread of new, distance-destroying technologies. A global society, perhaps even a global moral consciousness, is emerging as a result. Small-town America rails at the excessive power of Wall Street. Asia is rising once again. And, yes, there's trouble in the Middle East.


(Excerpt) Read more at strategicstudyindia.blogspot.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: agw; climatechange; globalization; globalwarming; onetrickpony

1 posted on 01/06/2013 8:44:58 PM PST by neverdem
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To: neverdem

Very interesting read.


2 posted on 01/06/2013 8:53:35 PM PST by Amberdawn
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To: neverdem

Well, that would certainly bring about a goodly portion of the global population reduction for which the Left is pining.


3 posted on 01/06/2013 9:09:48 PM PST by lurk
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To: neverdem

Bump


4 posted on 01/06/2013 9:10:20 PM PST by Jet Jaguar
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To: neverdem

Considering the economic depression we are in I would not be surprised to see a world war follow thereafter again.


5 posted on 01/06/2013 9:36:05 PM PST by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
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To: neverdem

I totally agree. Totalitarian regimes enter massive wars, internal, or external. It’s coming soon, or maybe already here.


6 posted on 01/06/2013 10:12:42 PM PST by FlyingEagle
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To: FlyingEagle
Well, Great Britain went to war in 1914 rather casually, and it was a relatively free power. I agree with Niall Ferguson that the decision to go to war with Germany was uncalled for and disastrous to the British Empire.
7 posted on 01/06/2013 10:40:48 PM PST by RobbyS (Christus rex.)
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To: neverdem
Thank you for introducing me to an excellent historian. An
extremely thoughtful piece on the parallels that he brings
judicious cause for examining. What could be more sobering
than to think we stand on the precipice as they did then?
8 posted on 01/06/2013 10:49:53 PM PST by jobim (.)
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To: LS

Ping


9 posted on 01/06/2013 11:10:06 PM PST by neverdem ( Xin loi min oi)
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To: neverdem
..totally inadequate progress on global climate discussions,...

So we know that the world of 1913 was much more intelligent then the world of 2013. Just try telling a scientist in 1913 that CO2 was a pollutant. They would have thought you were a clown. The big problem our species faces this time is that we are living in the nuclear age. And nuclear weapons and reactors have proliferated enough so that any new global war means game over in the long run. And in this situation, what do our modern clowns worry about ? Climate change.

10 posted on 01/07/2013 12:17:29 AM PST by justa-hairyape
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To: justa-hairyape

I have predicted this for a time. War is coming—world war that will change everything. It will be fought in cyberspace as well as outer space. It will be total war. We better be ready! We could lose this one.


11 posted on 01/07/2013 3:36:26 AM PST by Forward the Light Brigade (Into the Jaws of H*ll)
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To: justa-hairyape; neverdem
Good article, Neverdem, thanks for posting.

For justa-hairyape — maybe global warming, the current climatological fear of liberals, will counteract nuclear winter, the previous climatological fear of liberals? /sarc

We don't have any way to objectively test either theory in advance, but I think it's pretty obvious that solar disruptions cause more problems in our atmosphere than CO2 emissions, and as bad as a nuclear war would be, I have major doubts about whether nuclear weaponry is capable of destroying the planet. Realistically, the only nuclear war we're likely to fight in the near future would be if a terrorist group got a nuclear bomb, and turning North Korea, Afghanistan or Pakistan into a sheet of glass isn't going to affect world climate.

China is a whole different ball game. I would not want to fight a major war against a nation that considers population reductions to be a positive outcome, and has a billion people with many “extras” with which to repopulate vacant spaces.

Turning the Chinese into profitmaking capitalists makes a whole lot more sense than fighting a war with them. It worked with the Japanese after World War II in converting their Bushido warrior code into aggressive free enterprise, and it might just work with China.

If it doesn't, we have a major problem on the eastern horizon.

12 posted on 01/07/2013 4:05:22 AM PST by darrellmaurina
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To: darrellmaurina

The Chinese are actually facing the prospect of underpopulation, and it is probably the greatest danger to their future plans or even power. Their one-child policy not only wiped out huge numbers of children who would be alive now, but resulted in such a bias towards male children that there simply aren’t enough mothers to go around to produce future generations. The country is expected to feel the effects of this in the not very distant future, perhaps by 2030 or so, and will suffer from a shortage of both markets (consumers) and labor. Capitalism requires population, a fact that our theorists for the last 50 years seem to have been unable to master.

It is possible, I suppose, that the Chinese will become aggressive in seeking women, and in any case, a major gender imbalance where there are more men than women is frequently a pre-condition for war.


13 posted on 01/07/2013 4:15:26 AM PST by livius
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To: neverdem
Numbers in Scripture are a huge part of Biblical research. The number 13 in scripture was first used in Genesis 14:4 here we read "Twelve years they served Chedorlaomer and the thirteenth year they REBELLED.

Hence every occurrence of the number thirteen and likewise of every multiple of it stamps that with which it stands in connection with rebellion, apostasy, defection, corruption, disintegration, revolution or some kindred idea.

The second usage of 13 was in connection to Ishmael in Genesis 17:25. Abraham circumcised him at the age of 13 admitting him into the covenant to which he was a stranger in heart and which ended in his rebellion and rejection.

When we get the the Gematria numbers in names, all descendants of Adam and Seth are divisible by 8 (Hebrew letters) and in the line of descendants of Adam/Cain are all divisible by 13. We also have the 113th congress and astronomically a amazing phenomenon has put the earths/sun solar system beginning 12-21-2012 into its 13th orbit around Sirius since the dawn of time.

14 posted on 01/07/2013 7:35:11 AM PST by thirst4truth (www.Believer.com)
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To: darrellmaurina
Turning the Chinese into profitmaking capitalists makes a whole lot more sense than fighting a war with them. It worked with the Japanese after World War II in converting their Bushido warrior code into aggressive free enterprise,

In the case of the Japanese, would that change in thinking have occurred had not nearly their entire country been burned to the ground?

15 posted on 01/07/2013 8:10:52 AM PST by DuncanWaring (The Lord uses the good ones; the bad ones use the Lord.)
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To: Forward the Light Brigade
We could lose this one.

The chances actually favor the US losing the next world war. Our technology has fallen way behind in quite a few areas. We have the military of the 1990's, while the Russians and Chinese are building the military of the 2010's. Very simple explanation why. The US is broke and cannot devote proper resources to military development. Crony climate change and crony peace dividends are much more important to these clowns.

16 posted on 01/07/2013 10:23:35 AM PST by justa-hairyape
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To: darrellmaurina
I have major doubts about whether nuclear weaponry is capable of destroying the planet.

Don't worry about Japan. It will no longer exist in 50 years. Consider it the new Atlantis. Could go into an explanation why the continuing radiation releases from Fukushima are overwhelming the Island, but that would take too much typing. Just realize that radiation contamination levels in water and soil have been increasing on the island the past year. Everywhere. It cannot be stopped. We do not have the technology to stop the releases. We do not have the technology to adequately clean up the contamination. The Japanese nation just experienced its greatest annual population loss ever. The Chinese will annihilate what remains of Atlantis in a few years.

So now magnify Fukushima by 50 to 100 and you will see what is going to kill most of the planet off. No way to stop that freight train now. We are being led by crony criminal psychopaths.

17 posted on 01/07/2013 10:36:05 AM PST by justa-hairyape
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To: justa-hairyape

I think it is more like 1937, after FDR won reelection. He had an economy in depression, failed socialist policies, just like Obama. Four year later we were at war.


18 posted on 01/07/2013 10:44:21 AM PST by kgrif_Salinas
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To: kgrif_Salinas
...more like 1937, after FDR won reelection. He had an economy in depression, failed socialist policies, just like Obama. Four year later we were at war.

And didn't FDR continue to *blame* his predecessor for all of his own failures? Does sound very familiar.

19 posted on 01/07/2013 10:48:29 AM PST by Jane Long (Philippians 2:11)
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To: neverdem

The Fourth Turning.


20 posted on 01/07/2013 10:49:51 AM PST by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: Fred Nerks; blam; SeekAndFind; cripplecreek; Liz; sickoflibs; nuconvert; LucyT; ryan71; ...
To the historically minded, the recurrence of particular themes, or particular rhymes, through history -- human greed, the manipulation of technology, the importance of geography in determining military outcomes, the power of belief in shaping politics, a solid conviction that this time is different -- is no surprise. You thought that the debt-fueled boom of the 2000s was different from all those other booms throughout history? Wrong. The ancient Greeks, with their understanding of greed, self-deception, hubris, and nemesis, would have been quite able to interpret the 2008 financial crisis without the need for an advanced degree in financial astrophysics from Harvard Business School. You thought pacifying Afghanistan would be a piece of cake because we have laser-guided munitions and drones these days? Not so much. You think that globalization is destined to continue forever, that interstate war is impossible, and that the onward march of democracy is ineluctable? Hang on a second; isn't that what people thought in 1913?

The crucial point about the world 100 years ago, then, is not that it is identical to the world today -- it isn't -- but that there was a time, in the not-so-distant past, when a globalized world, not entirely dissimilar to our own, fell apart. And it wasn't because human societies were in the grip of the uncontrollable forces of destiny or that they were particularly dumb. Most just didn't expect things to pan out the way they did. People actually living through the year 1913 did not experience those 12 months as the moody prelude to catastrophe. In retrospect, there were storm clouds on the horizon. But at the time, many people found themselves living through the best of times -- or simply had other things to think about.

ping

21 posted on 01/07/2013 11:17:22 AM PST by GOPJ (News anchor arrogance is a cover for ignorance. - - freeper ryan71)
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To: kgrif_Salinas
It is similar to both situations. And we know what happened in both cases. But this next world war will be the last fought by the generic human species. Remember what Einstein said about WWIII and WWIV. Perhaps in another million years the next dominant species will eventually be facing the same crisis. The question is will the next dominant species be sourced from mutated human DNA or perhaps mutated lizard DNA. Think it would be interesting if the radiation pouring into the sea from Fukushima causes Dolphins to develop arms and legs. They are perhaps the one species on the planet that has a chance to exit the madhouse, but hey, I am a Douglas Adams fan.
22 posted on 01/07/2013 11:45:45 AM PST by justa-hairyape
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To: Pining_4_TX
The crucial point about the world 100 years ago, then, is not that it is identical to the world today -- it isn't -- but that there was a time, in the not-so-distant past, when a globalized world, not entirely dissimilar to our own, fell apart. And it wasn't because human societies were in the grip of the uncontrollable forces of destiny or that they were particularly dumb. Most just didn't expect things to pan out the way they did. People actually living through the year 1913 did not experience those 12 months as the moody prelude to catastrophe. In retrospect, there were storm clouds on the horizon. But at the time, many people found themselves living through the best of times -- or simply had other things to think about.

Forewarned matters... ping. Read it all - worth the time.

23 posted on 01/07/2013 11:47:28 AM PST by GOPJ (News anchor arrogance is a cover for ignorance. - - freeper ryan71)
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To: neverdem

While 2013 might be the year of a great war, there is no real, meaningful parallel to WW I. The 20th century was all about the final desolation of the major monarchies and the establishment of new governments.

It is not over yet. Russia is still struggling. China is not yet recovered. Egypt is in turmoil.

The next great war, actually already underway for 20 years, is with radical Islam. While the west is in the throes of Repudiation, casting off religion, much of of Islam is engaged in a battle for Restoration. The west has become the enemy in order to have a bag to punch while stirring up anger and disruption at home.

The writer got his daily quota of words but they are but so much speculative balderdash.

Bert’s three R’s........ Reformation, Repudiation, Restoration. History is largely about them and the 4th..... Rennaissance


24 posted on 01/07/2013 12:06:45 PM PST by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 .....The fairest Deduction to be reduced is the Standard Deduction)
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To: DuncanWaring; AmericanInTokyo; TigerLikesRooster
15 posted on Mon Jan 07 2013 10:10:52 GMT-0600 (Central Standard Time) by DuncanWaring: “In the case of the Japanese, would that change in thinking have occurred had not nearly their entire country been burned to the ground?”

It seems patently obvious that even **AFTER** the mass devastation of Japanese cities and industry, the Japanese would never have surrendered without the decision of the Emperor to do so. That nation, from the lowly peasant to the highest general, gave every appearance well into 1945 of being willing to die in a last-ditch defense of the Home Islands. The mass suicides at Okinawa were likely only a foretaste of what was coming if the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki had not worked and if we had been forced to invade.

Nations, like alcoholics, sometimes have to hit bottom to decide they need to change course.

I think a reasonable case can be made that Mao, by unifying most of China under a single central government, and then destroying much of his country's traditional elites in academic, religious, military and cultural affairs, and then with the Red Brigades showing to pretty much everyone the utter bankruptcy of Maoist ideals of agrarian Communism, made his own country “hit bottom” in ways that caused Chinese leaders to look to the West to find a system which worked economically while preserving social unity and government control.

But then again, understanding the “inscrutable oriental” has not always been the easiest task for Western minds, and we have found our failures to be catastrophic at times.

25 posted on 01/07/2013 12:18:32 PM PST by darrellmaurina
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks neverdem.

https://twitter.com/charlesemmerson%2BCHARLES+EMMERSON

...Charles Emmerson has also written articles for the Financial Times, Monocle, The Huffington Post and other media outlets...

http://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2012/06/charles-emmerson-future-arctic?fsrc=scn/tw_ec/its_not_just_about_climate_change

http://www.ewi.info/charles-emmerson-future-history-arctic


26 posted on 01/07/2013 5:05:42 PM PST by SunkenCiv (Romney would have been worse, if you're a dumb ass.)
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To: bert

Well said.


27 posted on 01/07/2013 6:45:37 PM PST by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: thirst4truth
We also have the 113th congress

Irrelevant to the number 13 -- it is not [evenly] divisible by 13, as your line of reasoning would indicate it must be.

and astronomically a amazing phenomenon has put the earths/sun solar system beginning 12-21-2012 into its 13th orbit around Sirius since the dawn of time.

While astronomically interesting, what's the point of your saying so? Or do you mean to use astrology in interpretation of the bible?

28 posted on 01/08/2013 8:54:46 AM PST by OneWingedShark (Q: Why am I here? A: To do Justly, to love mercy, and to walk humbly with my God.)
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