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December Job stats: Donít let arithmetic get in the way
New York Post ^ | 01/08/2013 | John Crudele

Posted on 01/08/2013 7:08:04 AM PST by SeekAndFind

If you aren’t confused yet about what the economy is doing, you haven’t been paying close enough attention to recent news reports.

Take, for example, last Friday’s employment report in which the Labor Department announced the nation’s unemployment rate in December was “unchanged at 7.8 percent” from November’s level. That’s easy enough to understand — until you look back at the November report when “the unemployment rate edged down to 7.7 percent.”

How, you might be asking, can December be unchanged at 7.8 percent when November was 7.7 percent? Didn’t the jobless rate go up 0.1 percent from one month to the next?

Well, here’s the way the Labor Department explained it: “Seasonally adjusted household survey data have been revised using updated seasonal adjustment factors, a procedure done at the end of each calendar year.”

Got it? Well, of course you don’t. And if you read any more, you’ll probably get one of those piercing headaches that come from absorbing something that’s too confusing too fast.

So let me explain what happened. The Labor Department (last week) revised its November rate up to 7.8 percent, from 7.7 percent, and therefore, the 7.8 percent rate in December looked like it was unchanged instead of increased.

But that’s not the only puzzle.

The government also announced that 155,000 new jobs appeared in the economy during the last month of 2012. The editors of the New York Times thought that warranted the premier space on Saturday’s front page and the headline “Job Growth Is Still Steady Despite Worry.” The Wall Street Journal saw things a little differently: “Tepid Job Growth Fuels Worry.” (Like The Post, the Wall Street Journal is owned by News Corp.)

So, was December’s job growth good or bad? Steady or tepid?

(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: jobs; unemployment

1 posted on 01/08/2013 7:08:07 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

New math: Fewer people looking for work + fewer available jobs = lower unemployment rate.

(courtesy of Pookies toons)


2 posted on 01/08/2013 7:10:24 AM PST by csmusaret (I will give Obama credit for one thing- he is living proof that familiarity breeds contempt.)
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To: SeekAndFind
If measured by using news headlines claiming the rate 'edged downwards' the US would've hit full employment three years ago and would be looking abroad for people to employ.

Who isn't wise to the media's game by now - adjust the numbers downward to get the headline, quietly adjust the numbers upward two weeks later, repeat the next month.

3 posted on 01/08/2013 7:14:46 AM PST by skeeter
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To: SeekAndFind
The number to follow now is the unemployed/under employed. In the depths of the recession it was ~ 23 million. Today it is ~23 million. The people giving up, going on disability, or retiring early is just making Obama look good. When you look at the number on welfare/food stamps and not working, we are around 11% unemployed. You can't pay the taxes needed with this number of people working.

To just watch the main number of 7.8%, you can't possibly know how bad the economy is for workers.

4 posted on 01/08/2013 7:28:51 AM PST by chuckles
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To: SeekAndFind

Between the “adjustments” and the arbitrary model “assumptions” the massaged economic numbers out of Washington are nothing more than political propaganda.


5 posted on 01/08/2013 7:35:13 AM PST by circlecity
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To: chuckles

What gets me is anyone with half a brain knows full well the 7.8% number is a fantasy. Yet, I continue to hear leaders from the Republican Party, the former “No Tax Increase” Party, cite the same number giving it undo credibility.

Why would they do that?


6 posted on 01/08/2013 8:00:54 AM PST by Rational Thought
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To: circlecity; Rational Thought; chuckles

7 posted on 01/08/2013 8:08:09 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

January Announced Layoff Total (Est.) - 4,233

January 8 , 2013

Visiting Nurse Association of Texas - 400

Ypsilanti Public Schools MI - Layoffs Poss.

San Diego Workforce Partnership - 8

Mondelez Global LLC - 100

JP Morgan Chase in Florence - 300

EMI - 9 Layoffs Reported

LCA-Vision Inc. - 31

Faxton St. Luke’s Healthcare NY- 10 Layoffs

Politico - Some Layoffs Reported

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com/


8 posted on 01/08/2013 8:39:47 AM PST by KeyLargo
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To: Rational Thought
...."Why would they do that?"......

Repubs seem to have lost the command of the English language. Dems have for 12 years exclaimed "Bush tax cuts for the rich". Thye always include the name "Bush" and the descriptor "for the rich". A Dem was completely unable to form the sentence, "Tax Rates". Then, the tax rates came to retirement, and all of the sudden, the Bush tax rates helped ALL of the people that pay taxes.Bush had a terrible economy, but they can't explain how he had 4% unemployment and the "wonderful" Obama economy has never been better than the worst Bush quarter.

This is one of the reasons I voted for Newt Gingrich. Along with having ideas the others can't even think of, he was able to open his mouth and say it. Where is the Repub saying "Did the children in Conn get shot with a pistol or a shotgun, because no one has shown an AR15 was even at the scene?" "Is someone that claims we have no spending problem, as Obama did, even capable of being President?" Maybe impeachment is in order. "Who are the Muslim Brotherhood people in the administration and why are they there?" Where is the Repub that will just ask how the president came to have a dead man's Social Security number? Why was Obama's house in Chicago not in his name?

There are literally hundreds of questions that aren't being asked by anyone.

All are important questions, but for me, the pressing one is about gun control. We don't even know what guns was used to murder the children. There is no proof an AR15 was even at the scene. The gun in the trunk of the perps car was a shotgun. Are we going to ban shotguns? If the gun was in the trunk, how did he use it to kill people? Why ban a gun that killed less people than hammers did?

This conversation isn't about guns only. You could look at almost any subject and see the same propaganda coming from the left with NO response from the right. Any one that would say something is gone now,....like Allen West.

I have high hopes for Ted Cruz, but I don't like to put my faith in one person. I love Sarah Palin, but where is she? What motivation does she have to dive into the meat grinder with no reward. I actually spoke at a local Tea Party Rally in the early days. Where are they?

This is so bad, I've started to think in terms of the end times. How can one man blind so many people that should know better? Even the average dummy should be able to add and subtract and see the economy is finished, yet each day people wake up, go to work, and pay taxes to a hopeless mess. It has been described as "stealing" from our children, but we seem to have no response when they send tanks and F-18's to Egypt to fight Israel with my daughters money.

IMHO, we are waiting for the next Ronald Reagan and he ain't commin. If Newt wasn't good enough, well, we are "effed" IMO. Was Cain good enough? Bachman? Palin? Apparently not. Boehner must be good enough.

I bet your sphincter puckered when you read that.

9 posted on 01/08/2013 11:07:43 AM PST by chuckles
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