Skip to comments.December Job stats: Donít let arithmetic get in the way
Posted on 01/08/2013 7:08:04 AM PST by SeekAndFind
If you arent confused yet about what the economy is doing, you havent been paying close enough attention to recent news reports.
Take, for example, last Fridays employment report in which the Labor Department announced the nations unemployment rate in December was unchanged at 7.8 percent from Novembers level. Thats easy enough to understand until you look back at the November report when the unemployment rate edged down to 7.7 percent.
How, you might be asking, can December be unchanged at 7.8 percent when November was 7.7 percent? Didnt the jobless rate go up 0.1 percent from one month to the next?
Well, heres the way the Labor Department explained it: Seasonally adjusted household survey data have been revised using updated seasonal adjustment factors, a procedure done at the end of each calendar year.
Got it? Well, of course you dont. And if you read any more, youll probably get one of those piercing headaches that come from absorbing something thats too confusing too fast.
So let me explain what happened. The Labor Department (last week) revised its November rate up to 7.8 percent, from 7.7 percent, and therefore, the 7.8 percent rate in December looked like it was unchanged instead of increased.
But thats not the only puzzle.
The government also announced that 155,000 new jobs appeared in the economy during the last month of 2012. The editors of the New York Times thought that warranted the premier space on Saturdays front page and the headline Job Growth Is Still Steady Despite Worry. The Wall Street Journal saw things a little differently: Tepid Job Growth Fuels Worry. (Like The Post, the Wall Street Journal is owned by News Corp.)
So, was Decembers job growth good or bad? Steady or tepid?
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
New math: Fewer people looking for work + fewer available jobs = lower unemployment rate.
(courtesy of Pookies toons)
Who isn't wise to the media's game by now - adjust the numbers downward to get the headline, quietly adjust the numbers upward two weeks later, repeat the next month.
To just watch the main number of 7.8%, you can't possibly know how bad the economy is for workers.
Between the “adjustments” and the arbitrary model “assumptions” the massaged economic numbers out of Washington are nothing more than political propaganda.
What gets me is anyone with half a brain knows full well the 7.8% number is a fantasy. Yet, I continue to hear leaders from the Republican Party, the former “No Tax Increase” Party, cite the same number giving it undo credibility.
Why would they do that?
January Announced Layoff Total (Est.) - 4,233
January 8 , 2013
Visiting Nurse Association of Texas - 400
Ypsilanti Public Schools MI - Layoffs Poss.
San Diego Workforce Partnership - 8
Mondelez Global LLC - 100
JP Morgan Chase in Florence - 300
EMI - 9 Layoffs Reported
LCA-Vision Inc. - 31
Faxton St. Lukes Healthcare NY- 10 Layoffs
Politico - Some Layoffs Reported
Repubs seem to have lost the command of the English language. Dems have for 12 years exclaimed "Bush tax cuts for the rich". Thye always include the name "Bush" and the descriptor "for the rich". A Dem was completely unable to form the sentence, "Tax Rates". Then, the tax rates came to retirement, and all of the sudden, the Bush tax rates helped ALL of the people that pay taxes.Bush had a terrible economy, but they can't explain how he had 4% unemployment and the "wonderful" Obama economy has never been better than the worst Bush quarter.
This is one of the reasons I voted for Newt Gingrich. Along with having ideas the others can't even think of, he was able to open his mouth and say it. Where is the Repub saying "Did the children in Conn get shot with a pistol or a shotgun, because no one has shown an AR15 was even at the scene?" "Is someone that claims we have no spending problem, as Obama did, even capable of being President?" Maybe impeachment is in order. "Who are the Muslim Brotherhood people in the administration and why are they there?" Where is the Repub that will just ask how the president came to have a dead man's Social Security number? Why was Obama's house in Chicago not in his name?
There are literally hundreds of questions that aren't being asked by anyone.
All are important questions, but for me, the pressing one is about gun control. We don't even know what guns was used to murder the children. There is no proof an AR15 was even at the scene. The gun in the trunk of the perps car was a shotgun. Are we going to ban shotguns? If the gun was in the trunk, how did he use it to kill people? Why ban a gun that killed less people than hammers did?
This conversation isn't about guns only. You could look at almost any subject and see the same propaganda coming from the left with NO response from the right. Any one that would say something is gone now,....like Allen West.
I have high hopes for Ted Cruz, but I don't like to put my faith in one person. I love Sarah Palin, but where is she? What motivation does she have to dive into the meat grinder with no reward. I actually spoke at a local Tea Party Rally in the early days. Where are they?
This is so bad, I've started to think in terms of the end times. How can one man blind so many people that should know better? Even the average dummy should be able to add and subtract and see the economy is finished, yet each day people wake up, go to work, and pay taxes to a hopeless mess. It has been described as "stealing" from our children, but we seem to have no response when they send tanks and F-18's to Egypt to fight Israel with my daughters money.
IMHO, we are waiting for the next Ronald Reagan and he ain't commin. If Newt wasn't good enough, well, we are "effed" IMO. Was Cain good enough? Bachman? Palin? Apparently not. Boehner must be good enough.
I bet your sphincter puckered when you read that.