In my opinion, they’d make an example of a few ‘regular Joe’s’ as per your analysis (fines, felony conviction, etc.) and publicize with the Obamamedia/Dem spin machine, something they are very good at .... many folks would give up their guns after that. It won’t be a mass confiscation ... they’ll pick some good, decent, mainstream folks and as I said, make horrific examples of them ... “THIS could happen to YOU”.
They won’t stop until there are consequences.
Yes, employ the same tactics that the RIAA used against music downloaders.
Yes you are correct it will be done the same way the IRS works. Highly visible one at a time. GB and SH will be first.