Skip to comments.Statistician Nate Silver predicts Seahawks-Patriots rematch in Super Bowl(Seahawks Lose Today)
Posted on 01/13/2013 3:10:22 PM PST by Colonel Kangaroo
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The fact of the matter, whether we like to admit it or not, is that polling has become very accurate in recent years, because there is so much of it being done, and the methodologies have become well refined. Anyone who has access to all the polling that he does is going to basically make the same predictions. It’s not nearly as big a deal as the liberal media wants us to believe.
"Wait!? He missed that field goal! I didn't call Timeout?! I didn't!"
SO maybe it will be Obama Vs. Patriots.
A match we’re going to see anyway for the next four years.
I don't get the whole 'ice the kicker' routine. These are professional athletes. One is better off letting them kick with the play clock running down especially considering that they are expecting a timeout to be called.
“Well, if hes such a wizard, and his predictions are so golden, I guess you and the rest of us can just quit working and make an outstanding living just betting his predictions, right?”
No, markets only work when their are those who make predictions that turn out to be wrong. Those players who are best at analyzing data usually make the more accurate predictions and win most of the time.
Eventually, those who are inferior at analyzing data will wash out of the market and those who are best will thrive.
In the end, maybe 5-10% of the players will truly succeed and all other players will perish or hardly survive.
Even those who are best at analyzing data and making predictions are wrong once in a while.
If I were to bet on someone predicting which baseball prospects will be the best MLB players, who will win an election, or who will execute the best trading strategies or who will win the most money at poker, I will go with Nate Silver.
He just had inside information about the rigged voting machines.
Again with this poker rubbish. The guy has never even cashed in a significant tournament in his entire life.
Are you Silver's publicist or something? I see you just joined less than two months ago, which is more than a little suspicious to me, considering how long F.R. has been around.
Exactly my point. You are likely very savvy, and therefore do not bet on the basis of someone else’s predictions, recognizing that they are making calculated guesses - and that even the best calculated guesses have significant margins of error. There are a ton of people in the world who have much, much more statistical expertise than those like Nate Silver, or any of the other lay press personalities. Further, many of these people have access to computing power beyond what most, if not all of us have ever had access to, but they are not routinely wagering themselves to riches on the basis of their mathematical powers of prediction. There's a lot of variability in the world, and that's wonderful.
That said, I will make a prediction, in part based on the inherent variability, uniqueness, and need for individuality of each human being - that every human experiment based on the Marxist model, or variation thereof, will eventually fail, and that all who cavort as intellectually superior because they espouse such models will be proved wrong by history.
My son told me the coach was not complaining about the timeout. Rather, he was miffed that Bryant got a “practice” kick. Who knows?
It would take some serious gall to complain about a TO to the same ref you got one from.
But, too bad, too sad for the Seahawks.
Pete should go back to B.C.....Always thought he was the definition of the “Peter Principle”. That was a really dumb call by the same token the Atlanta coach having 12 guys on the field in the last minute of the game was equally as stupid.
Well, if hes such a wizard, and his predictions are so golden, I guess you and the rest of us can just quit working and make an outstanding living just betting his predictions, right?
There was money to be made on Intrade (not any more :-( )
Typical Silver. The guy is a hack.
More proof that Silver doesn’t know what he is doing and just got lucky.
He predicted a rigged election - BFD