Skip to comments.German Spy Agency [BND]: Geopolitical Consequences Of US Oil Boom
Posted on 01/20/2013 8:03:18 PM PST by Perdogg
Much digital ink has been spilled about the oil and gas boom in the US, the result of ever improving fracking technologies, and whether or not it will lead to energy independence, or even turn the US into an oil exporter.
Now a confidential report by the German version of the CIA, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), seeped to the surface. It sketched out the booms geopolitical consequences. Biggest loser? China.
(Excerpt) Read more at testosteronepit.com ...
Nobody loses from more gas. Stupid article.
The Cloward-Piven crowd loses.
The bigger problem is for socialist ME oil exporting countries that will not be able to pay for social spending when the price of oil drops below the assumptions and projections.
see: IMF Powerpoint Presentation:
Middle East and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook Update April 2012 Lots of interesting info, but SLIDE 34 documents a very IMPORTANT issue for socialist oil exporting countries. It is the fiscal break-even oil price to sustain their welfare state by country. For example, in 2012 it is projected that Iran must sell their oil for $117 per bbl or they cannot meet planned government expenditures.
PDF of powerpoint:
It would be nice to tell OPEC to pound sand.
Business insider is a far left crap puddle.
The people that have the hardware to compress that gas will win big.
Exactly. I was going to post the same thing. Except I like your version better. Well put!
Better yet, would be better to tell OPEC to get their sand off our oil.
We’ll have to wait at least 4 years to see any real benefit. The headwinds of 0bomunism are just too strong now.
The communist regime in Venezuela would likely collapse, if the world price of oil drops significantly. Ironically, that would be because the Chavez government heavily subsidizes the price of petrol products in the domestic market. The domestic price is far below the cost of production. The only way this subsidy can be maintained, is by diverting profits from foreign sales. When those profits decrease enough, the domestic subsidy will be unaffordable. Venezuelans, who are addicted to low, low, prices for gas will not be amused, by sudden sharp price rises. They will be especially miffed to be paying more for oil products, at a time when the world price is lower.
Also, Chavez will lose his main source of foreign influence — selling oil to “friendly” nations at below world prices.
For our oil to be developed we need some minimum pricing as well since fracking wells deplete faster. I believe that number is $80/barrel.
Thackney, do you have a handle on how low oil prices can fall and America still have an expanding supply of petroleum?
From the article:
“the cost of electricity in the US is already 40% lower than in Germany”
That’s an incredible competitive advantage and I’d like to see how we match up against other countries. Low energy costs are critical to an expanding economy.
I agree that energy costs can be an incredible competitive advantage. However, nothing cures high prices like high prices and the reverse is true as well. Prices will tend to relate to the cost of production. Government does not do the economy any favors when it attempts to pick a wining energy source because the subsidies and cronyism are not “sustainable”, a topic the left (er, “progressives”) love to scold the rest of us about.
In a few years when government gets exhausted from subsidizing wind power, and as wind companies become distressed, start to neglect maintenance and upkeep, as wind turbines start to become eyesores (and ear-sores) and as companies go bankrupt, there will be a tipping point when it these monsters are no longer fashionable in the minds of people concerned with migratory birds or some such.
Then there will be a great cry upon the land for a government subsidy to decommission “unsightly” wind turbines that “are killing our precious migratory birds and endangered bat species by the thousands”.
I suspect before that happens, and in the near future, Chavez will lose his ability to remain above room temperature.
I guess that Cuban medicine isn't quite up to the standards he thought.
I do not believe there is a set number that anyone person can determine. And even if such a number could be calculated, there are too many variables for it to stay the same for long.
Regulations, the cost of labor, steel, competition in Natural gas for the same equipment, labor, etc.
If the price of natural gas climbs drastically due to regulations against coal power plants, the drilling rigs will swing from oil searching to gas, just as they went to oil in the past 5 years.
I think under current conditions, $80/barrel will lead to an expanding domestic oil supply, for now.
You’re right on both counts.
I know it’s too much to expect; but I hope that at least some people learn a lesson, when the inevitable collapse happens.
Thanks. I believe that number is correct as well. Do you have any data on the numbers for other countries? Would a price that low harm Iran?
Would a price that low harm Iran?
They would have less money than $100 so they would make choices on what they would not spend the difference, but I doubt it would bring any drastic cut backs that greatly affect the populous.