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The Worldwide Demographic Cliff Is Going To Be Brutal
TBI ^ | 1-22-2013 | The Economist

Posted on 01/22/2013 11:01:18 AM PST by blam

The Worldwide Demographic Cliff Is Going To Be Brutal

The Economist
Jan. 22, 2013, 8:56 AM

THE post-war generation of baby boomers - those born between 1946 and 1964 - have had a huge appetite on the world, creating "youth culture", changing social attitudes from the sixties onwards, boosting economic growth as they entered the workforce and so on. Now they are starting to retire and this blog had banged on about the effect this will have on issues like pensions, asset markets and economic growth. not to worry, say some folk, since although we may have more elderly to look after, we will have fewer children.

Alas, that won't help, as this graph compiled by statistician Simon Hedlin shows. The total dependency ratio (children and retirees, compared with those of working age) fell in all G20/OECD nations bar Germany and Sweden between 1960 and 2010. In the next fifty years, it will rise in all those nations, bar India and South Africa. In most nations, the ratio will rise by 40% or more; there are huge increases in dependency in parts of Asia (China and South Korea) and in eastern Europe. Britain and America are towards the bottom of the table, but their problems are big enough.

There are many implications. With more dependents to care for, it is very hard to imagine how we will pay down our debts. And it is also very hard to imagine how one can possibly expect government spending to shrink significantly.


(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: aging; demographics; economy; seniors

1 posted on 01/22/2013 11:01:25 AM PST by blam
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To: blam
Yep, and all these immigrants aren't going to be too keen on paying the Social Security for old white childless women so they can throw birthday parties for their pets.

Hey ladies, I hope the free birth control Obama gives you is worth it.

2 posted on 01/22/2013 11:07:30 AM PST by qam1 (There's been a huge party. All plates and the bottles are empty, all that's left is the bill to pay)
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To: blam
I always say,

"F*#& for the Future!"

3 posted on 01/22/2013 11:11:05 AM PST by Uncle Miltie (Before we argue, are you approved to speak by the Bureau of Alcohol, Firearms and Speech?)
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To: blam

And it is also very hard to imagine how one can possibly expect government spending to shrink significantly.


Yep. It will happen, but it never happens voluntarily.


4 posted on 01/22/2013 11:12:31 AM PST by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: blam
Notice the demonizing of old people that has begun the last few years.

There are old people that are more worthless than others. They are worth less in this order:

1. Male
2. White
3. Christian
4. Conservative
5. Military Veterans
6. Educated
7. Etc.

The whole world will be better when these racist old people with their old morals and ways are dead and gone.

5 posted on 01/22/2013 11:13:46 AM PST by blam
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To: blam

0bamaCare takes care of any unwanted nasty blemishes on your population by making them wait a few years for that open heart surgery.


6 posted on 01/22/2013 11:18:01 AM PST by Uncle Miltie (Before we argue, are you approved to speak by the Bureau of Alcohol, Firearms and Speech?)
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To: Uncle Miltie
"0bamaCare takes care of any unwanted nasty blemishes on your population by making them wait a few years for that open heart surgery."

(ahem) You mean the death squads? (Political appointees that will decide if you live or die?)

7 posted on 01/22/2013 11:24:23 AM PST by blam
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To: blam
have had a huge appetite on the world

If only this article were written in English.

8 posted on 01/22/2013 11:24:37 AM PST by wideawake
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To: qam1

Isn’t it the younger voters who want free birth control and voted for Obama?


9 posted on 01/22/2013 11:48:13 AM PST by ansel12 (Cruz said "conservatives trust Sarah Palin that if she says this guy is a conservative, that he is")
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To: blam

First, let me adjust my flame proof suit, then an observation:

One fact unmentioned - when all us old farts retire, who is going to produce the money required to even half run society?

Yesterday afternoon I standing on the floor of a friend of mine’s small manufacturing company. They were behind and several of his ‘key’ employees were busting their butt to catch up. Meanwhile when 4 pm rolled around, most employees left.

Of course you know the punch line. Him, me, the people staying to catch up all have one similar characteristic: gray. Gray hair, gray beards, wrinkles, etc. Those that just had too many things to do and left - young.

We’re standing there watching this and he says to me, “if I ever decide I want to retire, I have no idea what to do with this place - sell it off I guess.” His own kid was one of the ones that left.

I am not trying to sound like an old fart, but I still see too much of the water being carried by gray, and way too little interest by those without gray. And while I plan to work a lot longer - all the gray will croak someday. Then what happens?


10 posted on 01/22/2013 11:51:38 AM PST by I cannot think of a name
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To: Uncle Miltie

Well, Laz is sure keen on doing all he can.


11 posted on 01/22/2013 11:54:13 AM PST by ctdonath2 (End of debate. Your move.)
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To: blam

ONOZ! The sky is falling!!


12 posted on 01/22/2013 11:55:21 AM PST by frizzled
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To: blam

There are some important subdivisions in the generations that are going to matter soon.

In cultural terms, if not pure demographics, the Baby Boomers (I) were born from 1945-1955. Those that followed them, from 1955-1965 or so, are sometimes called Boomers II, or “Generation Jones”, and they have something of an overlap with Boomers I on one side and Generation X on the other.

That is, the earlier Boomers II got some cultural “trickle down” from the Boomers I, though it was second hand, not direct participation and experience. The later Boomers II are far more in tune with Generation X, both of which began to have to suffer the cultural burden of Boomers I.

This matters today, because Boomers II and Generation X do not personally expect what the Boomers I expect, and they aren’t too thrilled about paying for it, either. They see Boomers I as takers, and they are in no mood to give, just so the Boomers I can take.

Boomers II and Generation X are cynical when it comes to things like Social Security and Obamacare, because they know that government is just taking all the money and spending it on other things, with zero intention of ever paying it back.

So they are looking forward to Boomers I losing their political strength over time, because when they do, they are likely going to be cut loose and told to fend for themselves.

“You were greedy, demanding and arrogant your whole lives, so now it is time for working past when you wanted to retire, and learning how to beg to make ends meet. Welcome to the future you built for yourselves, Baby Boomers I.”


13 posted on 01/22/2013 12:15:06 PM PST by yefragetuwrabrumuy (Best WoT news at rantburg.com)
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To: I cannot think of a name

“...I still see too much of the water being carried by gray...”

I was on a engineering crew installing fiber-optic cables at NSA a few years ago. When the project started I was 62 and figured that I was going to be the geezer on the team.

Ha!

On this 8 person team, I was 4th oldest.


14 posted on 01/22/2013 12:24:47 PM PST by BwanaNdege ("To learn who rules over you simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize"- Voltaire)
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To: ansel12

I’m sure he was referring to those who voted with their lady parts in 2012.


15 posted on 01/22/2013 12:40:22 PM PST by Marie Antoinette (:)
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To: blam

Obama sees Boomer Grandmothers wearing babushkas sweeping out Red Square (Chicago) and the Grandfathers dead.


16 posted on 01/22/2013 1:01:58 PM PST by Mike Darancette (Soylent Green is Boomers)
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To: yefragetuwrabrumuy

I’m Gen X (born 1969) and have several relatives (cousins, etc.) who would be what you call Boomer IIs and this is right on the mark. We’ve talked for years now about how messed up the Boomer I’s are (though we never had such a term) and how they’ve ruined the country in many ways. Their dotage is not going to be a pleasant one, I don’t think.


17 posted on 01/22/2013 1:03:19 PM PST by newhoosier
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To: blam

That’s going to be me - an old Granny in a Babushka hanging out on the street corner with her cronies...

Not.

Signed,

A tail-end Baby Boomer with her sh!t together :) (For the most part.)

I know it may not MATTER if things are REALLY bleak, world-wide...


18 posted on 01/22/2013 1:06:01 PM PST by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust Post-Apocalyptic skill set...)
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To: newhoosier; yefragetuwrabrumuy
Their dotage is not going to be a pleasant one, I don’t think.

Hopefully we will stay armed, jackass.

19 posted on 01/22/2013 1:10:10 PM PST by Mike Darancette (Soylent Green is Boomers)
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To: Mike Darancette

You can’t eat guns, if nobody will give you any free food.

It’s a hard fact of life that there are too many Boomers I for everybody else to support in the way they want to be supported.

The Democrats want to kill them off, but the vast majority of conservatives are willing to live and let live. But that doesn’t mean impoverishing the young so that the elderly can live in luxury, no matter how much the elderly want it.

If they earned and saved enough, and have a family willing to watch over them, good for them. If they don’t, then the best they can hope for is Christian charity.


20 posted on 01/22/2013 1:32:35 PM PST by yefragetuwrabrumuy (Best WoT news at rantburg.com)
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To: newhoosier

I’ve had this same argument with conservative boomers on this site. They call themselves conservatives, but any mentioning of lowering or making any changes to social security and they will go ballistic. They’ve paid into the system for 50 years, so they want theirs.

Well, we’re going to pay into the system 40 or 50 years and we’re not going to get a dang thing.

That makes them selfish and certainly NOT conservative. And I’m going to remind of them of that at every turn.


21 posted on 01/22/2013 2:21:55 PM PST by skinndogNN
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To: Diana in Wisconsin
"That’s going to be me - an old Granny in a Babushka hanging out on the street corner with her cronies..."

I notice the one with the blue apron has a bedding foam roll...or is that rolls of toilet paper under her arm?

22 posted on 01/22/2013 2:25:37 PM PST by blam
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To: newhoosier

Matter of fact, it wouldn’t surprise me in 10 or 15 years from now Congress comes out and say, anyone born after 1965 or later, will receive no social security benefits. So plan accordingly.


23 posted on 01/22/2013 2:26:39 PM PST by skinndogNN
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To: I cannot think of a name

What state was this in?


24 posted on 01/22/2013 2:35:19 PM PST by txhurl
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To: blam
New Japanese finance minister says elderly should 'hurry up and die'
25 posted on 01/22/2013 2:59:27 PM PST by blam
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To: txhurl

“What state was this in?”

Texas, but I also do a lot of work in Ohio, Oklahoma, and North Carolina. And I see it about the same everywhere.

Many of the younger people I work with almost seem to be waiting, as though something magic is going to happen and everybody will just reside in the land of milk and honey. No real need to worry about too much today.

Wish they’d let me in on when this is going to happen, because I don’t see any salvation ahead except through working harder and smarter.


26 posted on 01/22/2013 3:33:10 PM PST by I cannot think of a name
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To: I cannot think of a name

Only reason I asked is it reminded me of a shop I worked in by Lake Travis doing some tech stuff.


27 posted on 01/22/2013 3:49:57 PM PST by txhurl
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To: I cannot think of a name

Smart phones and texting has done something to their brains, I honestly am beginning to think. We’ve been blessed enough at my current company to grow through four or five pretty rough years in the local economy, and I can tell you we’ve had to let quite a few people go because they just absolutely cannot put the things down.

That, and those under thirty as a group seem to believe it’s OK to just not show up if there’s something more interesting to them going on elsewhere. These are sometimes degreed individuals. I know jobs of any kind are hard to find, that’s pretty much why I landed there. The work is detailed and varied, so boredom shouldn’t be a complaint. Pay is just so-so, not the best but certainly not the worst. It’s just the most amazing thing to me.


28 posted on 01/22/2013 3:53:16 PM PST by RegulatorCountry
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To: skinndogNN; yefragetuwrabrumuy

Really hate to bother you guys with the facts since you obviously have the world figured out, but -

Every year that a baby boomer turns 65, some number of boomers also DIE. And one day, the number of baby boomers turning 65 will be smaller than the number dying. But that won’t matter to you. No, your life will be getting worse and worse.

You see, while you’ve been running around crying about baby boomers, the real criminals were making off with your future.

If you’d like to get smarter, start here and download the .pdf mentioned.

http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2009/09/obama-to-spend-103-trillion-on-welfare-uncovering-the-full-cost-of-means-tested-welfare-or-aid-to-the-poor

Just in case you are too lazy, here’s a few tidbits:

“Under President Obama, government will spend more on welfare in a single year than President George W. Bush spent on the war in Iraq during his entire presidency. According to the Congressional Research Service, the cost of the Iraq war through the end of the Bush Administration was around $622 billion. By contrast, annual federal and state means-tested welfare spending will reach $888 billion in FY 2010. Federal welfare spending alone will equal $697 billion in that year.”

“Whereas Social Security and Medicare appear as two succinct line items in the federal budget1 and defense
spending appears on one line, federal welfare spending is spread through 13 government departments and agencies,
17 budget functions, and 71 separate programs. Spending levels for many programs can be discovered only
by data mining the annual 1,300-page budget appendix produced by the Office of Management and Budget
(OMB).2 Means-tested welfare also includes billions of dollars in mandatory state government contributions to
federal welfare programs. This spending never appears in any federal budget document. Because of this, the large
cost of aid to the poor is largely invisible to the press, decision makers, and the public.”

While you run your mouths off about people wanting get back what they paid into a system, the people that have never paid a dam dime into anything will be the cancer that eats you alive.

Enjoy your future.


29 posted on 01/22/2013 3:56:32 PM PST by I cannot think of a name
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To: I cannot think of a name

That’s what I’ve been seeing myself. And I’m one of the young people. What are we to do? There’s not enough of us to carry the load.


30 posted on 01/22/2013 4:48:23 PM PST by JCBreckenridge (Texas is a state of mind - Steinbeck)
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To: I cannot think of a name

“Enjoy your future”

I hear that. Talking with some of my age-similar coworkers, I said that we may be the first older generation that DOESN’T wish we were “30 years younger”. I would not want to be just starting out now.


31 posted on 01/22/2013 5:31:10 PM PST by mesoman7
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To: skinndogNN

Why is it selfish to want to keep what you earn, but it isn’t selfish to take someone else’s money away from them?

Real simple. Can you get a better ROI by keeping your money? Yes. Then there’s no need to pass it though the federal government so that they can pay for overhead on your dime.


32 posted on 01/22/2013 5:51:45 PM PST by JCBreckenridge (Texas is a state of mind - Steinbeck)
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To: RegulatorCountry

[quote]The work is detailed and varied, so boredom shouldn’t be a complaint. Pay is just so-so, not the best but certainly not the worst.[/quote]

I think we discovered the problem.


33 posted on 01/22/2013 5:53:08 PM PST by JCBreckenridge (Texas is a state of mind - Steinbeck)
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To: JCBreckenridge

What you should do is clear your mind of your boomers stole my lunch money obsession.

The entire economic system is about to crash over the entire world. Politicians from around the world have signed treaties that will make paupers of all of us. We are about to see famine and wars unlike the world has ever seen. Oboma and others have declared white Christian males and armed service vets who believe in the Bible and the Constitution are enemies of the people. Libs have all but declared war against half the population

and you are worried about what might happen in 20 to 30 years


34 posted on 01/22/2013 5:54:19 PM PST by winodog (Thank you Jesus for the calm in my life)
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To: JCBreckenridge

Not when unemployment is 10% and there are few opportunities paying much at all. We don’t lack for applicants, have a steady stream of them.

Seems I recall your posting that you’re getting by on pretty low pay, yourself. Correct? These jobs pay more than that to my recollection.


35 posted on 01/22/2013 6:05:04 PM PST by RegulatorCountry
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To: RegulatorCountry

Yes, but my present job is in line with my career goals and my desire to teach. My job offers me relevant experience in my field of study, something that I’ve never had until now. If I want more money, I can always supplement it with my own business.

It can and hopefully will open up more doors for me later on down the line.

What does your job offer? It sounds to me that you are picking up temps and then letting them go when you don’t need them anymore. Are you offering young people a career where they can have actual job security? Or are you offering a paycheck in exchange for work? There’s nothing wrong with that - I’ve had many, many jobs like that.

If you want to get young people to sign up for the job and stick with it you’ll have to offer one of several things.

1. Job security. If there’s a slowdown, am I going to have a job? Or am I going to be the first one dumped out the door. From what I can see, it sounds like the latter.

2. Opportunity for advancement. Does this job open up positions later on? Does it offer relevent work experience that is going to help obtain other positions?

3. Does the position offer a competitive pay structure compared with similar positions?

It seems to me, that you don’t offer one or two - so it comes down to three. Arguing that ‘just because the unemployment rate is X, we should only pay what is necessary to get butts in the seats, gets you exactly what you are getting - you’re getting the folks who can’t get work anywhere else.

And then you’re surprised that the folks you’ve got in your applicant pool aren’t the best and the brightest. This is simple math. You aren’t offering a high enough salary to attract the young people that you do want to work for you, and/or your HR people are simply not doing their jobs in getting those people out to work.


36 posted on 01/22/2013 10:32:49 PM PST by JCBreckenridge (Texas is a state of mind - Steinbeck)
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To: winodog

“and you are worried about what might happen in 20 to 30 years”

It’s happening now. We’ll start to see articles, probably in 5 years time showing that, oops, we were wrong, global population isn’t increasing, and then “where are we going to get all the people from”?


37 posted on 01/22/2013 10:35:38 PM PST by JCBreckenridge (Texas is a state of mind - Steinbeck)
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To: JCBreckenridge

Thanks for the newbie HR tips and motivational poster pabulum, none of which has a thing to do with excessive texting and personal cell phone usage while on the job, let alone absenteeism without informing ones employer while still expecting to have a job.

It wouldn’t be tolerated in a minumum wage position with a fast food joint let alone an entry level position paying twice that. You want to teach? Having difficulty achieving that? Why? Going to supplement that by starting your own business? Really? I’ve started several. Do you have any greenhorn pointers for that, too?


38 posted on 01/23/2013 2:32:38 AM PST by RegulatorCountry
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To: RegulatorCountry

Fast food treats it’s employees better than most. You get a shift - and you don’t get laid off and dumped just because you’re low man on the totem pole. Job security is something they offer that you don’t.

Crap pay = Crap employees.

Treat your young’uns like disposable tissue, and I’m not surprised they treat your job with the same disdain. :)

“You want to teach?”

This is my third year teaching.

“Having difficulty achieving that? Why?’

Because I don’t have 25 years experience like everyone else on the staff.

“Going to supplement that by starting your own business?”

I’ve been running my own for seven years now.

“Do you have any greenhorn pointers for that, too?”

Hey, I’m not the one coming on here and whining about the piss poor quality of employees that my business hired. Maybe HR should actually do it’s job in screening?


39 posted on 01/23/2013 4:12:58 AM PST by JCBreckenridge (Texas is a state of mind - Steinbeck)
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To: JCBreckenridge

So you’re teaching and running a side business of seven years, knocking down $12,000 a year, and have the gall to give pointers to anyone else? The only employees who have been let go are the ones who cannot stop texting long enough to do their jobs or just don’t show up one day then turn up the next expecting to still have a job. I note you haven’t commented upon this behavior. I suspect that’s because it’s normal to you. That might explain a few things as far as your own situation.


40 posted on 01/23/2013 8:27:49 AM PST by RegulatorCountry
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To: RegulatorCountry

“I note you haven’t commented upon this behavior.”

Is the problem their age or their behaviour?

“I suspect that’s because it’s normal to you.”

Well, then, provide your evidence that would be the case. :)

“So you’re teaching and running a side business of seven years, knocking down $12,000 a year, and have the gall to give pointers to anyone else?”

Well, let’s see. I have zero debt, own my own car. Paid off my student loans, got an education etc. Sure I don’t make a lot of money right now but I know how to make it work for me.

If you want good employees - you’re going to have to meet one of their needs - job security, career advancement or pay. It seems to me that your business, since you’ve said you have an issue with ‘these people’, isn’t paying enough, or isn’t doing their job with HR.


41 posted on 01/23/2013 3:42:23 PM PST by JCBreckenridge (Texas is a state of mind - Steinbeck)
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To: JCBreckenridge

You’re admittedly in no position to have a clue yet you continue. Better hope your substitute teacher gig pans out because customers will not put up with it.


42 posted on 01/23/2013 3:46:28 PM PST by RegulatorCountry
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To: blam

43 posted on 01/23/2013 3:46:51 PM PST by dfwgator
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To: RegulatorCountry

I see. So you have no evidence to back up your contention that I exhibit these behaviors. So I guess we are done with that.

I ask again, “is the issue their age or their behavior?”

I suspect you whined here, hoping to get sympathy for a business that you yourself has admitted is failing. What, you don’t think your employees smell it too?


44 posted on 01/23/2013 3:51:05 PM PST by JCBreckenridge (Texas is a state of mind - Steinbeck)
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To: JCBreckenridge

Reading comprehension is beyond your ken too, I see.


45 posted on 01/23/2013 4:23:10 PM PST by RegulatorCountry
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To: RegulatorCountry

So, apparently is profit.

I make money. - isn’t that the whole point of running a business?


46 posted on 01/23/2013 5:29:01 PM PST by JCBreckenridge (Texas is a state of mind - Steinbeck)
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To: JCBreckenridge
So, apparently is profit.

Yes, upon that we can all agree. Profit is beyond your ken.

I make money.

No, you don't. By your own admission you're "making" around $5.77 an hour between sustitute teaching and whatever it is you're calling a "business" on the side. Who pays for the roof over your head? Unless you're living under a bridge and posting from the public library, you're already in the hole right there.

- isn’t that the whole point of running a business?

Bless your heart.

47 posted on 01/23/2013 5:53:56 PM PST by RegulatorCountry
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To: RegulatorCountry

“No, you don’t.”

Yes, I do. I make more every month than I spend. That is profit.

“Who pays for the roof over your head?”

I pay 500 a month for a room in an apartment, utilities included. Costs are gas + food. On 1k a month - that leaves me around 2, 300 a month to save. Been doing this for 3 years now. It adds up.

If my expenses are roughly 700 a month and I make 1k a month - I’m doing better than someone who makes 100k a month but spends 105k.

This is simple math. You can make more by working more, or make more by spending less.

What is saving me is the fact that I am debtless - thanks to keeping my spending low and hammering away at my student loans. I bought a used car with my savings, so now I don’t have any car payments, and I don’t have to pay for a bus ticket and pass.


48 posted on 01/23/2013 6:03:56 PM PST by JCBreckenridge (Texas is a state of mind - Steinbeck)
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To: RegulatorCountry

“By your own admission you’re “making” around $5.77 an hour.”

It adds up. Who’s going to fire me? Nobody. Would you rather make 20 dollars an hour working for someone else or 5.77 working for yourself?

I could be making 20/hour but then my livelihood is dependent on my employer. If he makes bad decisions, and the business goes belly up - then so do I - and I’m out of work.

5.77 adds up, everyday, when I get out of bed. I’m never out of work - there’s always something to do for somebody needing something. I can choose whom I want to work for. I can choose when. If I want to work at 4am in the morning - I can work at 4am in the morning. I can work around the clock and go and take time off.

Is it worth it to me to go Galt and work as much as I need? Absolutely. I have more time to do the things I enjoy and the things that are worthwhile. And best of all - I’m covering my own bills. I don’t own anything to anybody anywhere.

And this is a bad thing?


49 posted on 01/23/2013 6:09:27 PM PST by JCBreckenridge (Texas is a state of mind - Steinbeck)
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To: I cannot think of a name

Our future? Let’s look at who brought us to that future.

Almost 70% of the Senate and House of Representatives are in their 50’s and 60’s.

And our last 3 presidents have all been baby boomers. So who took us to 17 trillion dollars in debt?

That’s right, the selfish generation.

Baby boomers have the power to change our future, but are unwilling to do so.


50 posted on 01/24/2013 7:18:54 AM PST by skinndogNN
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