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Live thread: Israeli election results (Polls close at 3pm ET)

Posted on 01/22/2013 11:31:53 AM PST by Dave346

Turnout is highest since 1999. Netanyahu is favored to win his 3rd term as PM.


TOPICS: Extended News; Israel; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bhomiddleeast; israelelection; liveisraelelection; netanyahu
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1 posted on 01/22/2013 11:31:58 AM PST by Dave346
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To: Dave346

Netanyahu will govern from the left with Labor, Livni and some other leftists supporting him for PM.


2 posted on 01/22/2013 11:44:53 AM PST by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: jjotto
Bibi may not win if you believe this.
3 posted on 01/22/2013 11:47:18 AM PST by kabar
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To: kabar

There won’t be a majority. It’s not like a US presidential election. Bibi as leader of the largest party will be given first chance to form a government.

It’s always possible that he’s angered enough people personally to lose the PM job. That’s the way parliamentary systems work.

The actual government may not be known for weeks. But Bibi will make ANY compromise with anybody to stay the top dog.


4 posted on 01/22/2013 11:55:36 AM PST by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: kabar

“Bibi may not win if you believe this.”

Something smells... US election? deja vu all over again?

Likud Party was expected to win with 34-37 members, enough for Netanyahu to construct a coalition and a victory of re-election
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

From your link:

LATEST: Shas ‘praying’ for 10 seats; purported exit poll leaks put Likud at under 30


5 posted on 01/22/2013 12:08:51 PM PST by thouworm (.)
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To: MestaMachine

FYI ping to thread and posts 3 & 5


6 posted on 01/22/2013 12:12:19 PM PST by thouworm (.)
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To: jjotto

Hey Bibi, in the words of Roanld Reagan, “let the bombing begin”.


7 posted on 01/22/2013 12:23:09 PM PST by kenmcg (scapegoat)
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To: Dave346

Channel 2’s exit poll gives the conservative block 61 of 120 seats.

Channel 10’s exit poll gives the conservative block 62 seats.

Channel 1’s exit poll gives the conservative block 60 seats.


8 posted on 01/22/2013 12:23:31 PM PST by Dave346
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To: kabar

He’ll be re-elected but his coalition options have narrowed. Yair Lapid looks set to be the kingmaker of the next Israeli government but for Shelly Yachimovich, the third place finish for Labor is a disappointment.

The Likud’s attacks on Jewish Home cost the Right votes. For that Netanyahu has no one to blame but himself.


9 posted on 01/22/2013 12:25:29 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Dave346

Correction: Channel 1 gives the conservatives 62 seats (they have Otzma Liyisrael getting 2 seats).


10 posted on 01/22/2013 12:25:29 PM PST by Dave346
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To: thouworm

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/164469

xit polls from Tuesday’s elections, released at 10 p.m. as the polls closed, showed Likud Beytenu winning with 31 seats. Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party surpassed all its achievements in previous surveys and earned 18 seats, putting it in second place.

The Labor party was in third with 17, Shas was fourth with 13, and Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home) was in fifth with 12.

Another elections day victory went to the Arab-Jewish Hadash party, which earned five seats.

The Kadima, Am Shalem and Otzma Leyisrael parties are not believed to have made it into Knesset.


11 posted on 01/22/2013 12:27:17 PM PST by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: Dave346

The parties on the right in these polls are:

Likud-Beytenu
Jewish Home
Shas
United Torah Judaism
Otzma Liyisrael


12 posted on 01/22/2013 12:28:19 PM PST by Dave346
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To: Dave346

I see the next coalition being Likud, Yesh Atid, Jewish Home, Shas and UTJ. Labor may also be invited to join at some point.


13 posted on 01/22/2013 12:28:30 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: jjotto

Hadash are the Communists. They wouldn’t be part of any center-Left government because they’re anti-Zionist.


14 posted on 01/22/2013 12:30:26 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Dave346

Parties need to meet a 2% threshold to win seats.

All parties who get at least 2% then split up the 120 seats based on their proportion of the vote total.


15 posted on 01/22/2013 12:32:11 PM PST by Dave346
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To: Dave346

It’s crucial that Binyamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister. We’ve already got out-of-control liberals running the show here in the states. The last thing Israel needs are the leftists running their country, ‘cause they’ll do nothing but kowtow to the terrorists and pretend Iran isn’t a threat.

Prayers have been up.

Did Tzipi Livni’s Hatnuah Party get any seats? And wow, that’s a smashing loss for Kadima, should they not even make it into the Knesset.


16 posted on 01/22/2013 12:33:42 PM PST by wk4bush2004
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To: goldstategop

Even in the weird world of Israeli politics, far-left Yesh Atid isn’t sitting with religious parties under Netanyahu, although such a thing might be possible if headed by Labor.


17 posted on 01/22/2013 12:34:06 PM PST by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: thouworm

Something smells... US election? deja vu all over again?”

Do you remember during the Clinton years HE sent old snake head over to Israel to help DEFEAT BiBi??? That’s why Bibi was not in for a few years, then was re-elected.

Hard to keep up, isn’t it? Now what makes us think that Axelgreas isn’t over there giving the oposition a hand to defeat Bibi? The Won is an evil revengeful type of guy, right?


18 posted on 01/22/2013 12:35:44 PM PST by WaterWeWaitinFor
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To: wk4bush2004

Kadima was obliterated.

But centrist parties tend to disappear after the next election. Yair Lapid is a famous celebrity so that’s why he polled so well. His party is already overvalued and should disappear in the next election.


19 posted on 01/22/2013 12:42:55 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: wk4bush2004

Livni’s party is projected to win 6-7 seats.

Kadima apparently failed to make the 2% needed.


20 posted on 01/22/2013 12:44:19 PM PST by Dave346
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To: goldstategop

So it seems that Lapid’s Yesh Atid Party is center-left, so what does that mean for Netanyahu & Likud? Will Lapid be willing to go along with Netanyahu or will there be friction? From what I can see, Lapid is more concerned with domestic issues and seems to want to put the foreign issues (like Iran) on the back burner.


21 posted on 01/22/2013 12:49:54 PM PST by wk4bush2004
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To: Dave346

Channel 1 exit poll:

Likud-Beytenu 31; Yesh Atid 19; Labor 17; Jewish Home 12; Shas 11; Hatnua 7; Meretz 7; United Torah Judaism 6; Hadash 3; Ra’am Ta’al 3; Balad 2; Otzma Leyisrael 2.

Channel 2 exit poll:

Likud-Beytenu 31; Yesh Atid 19; Labor 17; Shas 12; Jewish Home 12; Meretz 7; Hatnua 7; United Torah Judaism 6; Hadash 4; Ra’am Ta’al 3; Balad 2.

Channel 10 exit poll:

Likud-Beytenu 31; Yesh Atid 18; Labor 17; Shas 13; Jewish Home 12; Hatnua 6; United Torah Judaism 6; Meretz 6; Hadash 5; Ra’am Ta’al 4; Balad 2.


22 posted on 01/22/2013 12:52:48 PM PST by Dave346
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To: WaterWeWaitinFor

“Now what makes us think that Axelgreas isn’t over there giving the oposition a hand to defeat Bibi? The Won is an evil revengeful type of guy, right?”

I do. Maybe not Axelrod, but other obama/clinton strategists, I have no doubt.

Also, comment made by obama made right before election: “Netanyahu doesn’t know what’s best for Israel”


23 posted on 01/22/2013 1:01:33 PM PST by thouworm (.)
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To: goldstategop
As long as Bibi stays in charge, I can live with a loss of support for Likud. The coalition should hold together as far as foreign policy is concerned. No doubt, there will be some larger differences on domestic issues.

Bibi will hold Obama's feet to the fire on Iran--something the GOP won't do.

24 posted on 01/22/2013 1:06:41 PM PST by kabar
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To: Dave346

Election turnout has been announced at 66.6%.
Highest since 2003 but not as high as expected earlier in the day.


25 posted on 01/22/2013 1:17:31 PM PST by Dave346
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To: kabar

Reuters calling him the “bruised winner.”

(Reuters) - Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emerged the bruised winner of Israel’s election on Tuesday, with his hawkish bloc unexpectedly losing ground to resurgent center-left challengers, exit polls showed.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2980790/posts


26 posted on 01/22/2013 1:19:32 PM PST by thouworm (.)
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To: thouworm

It looks like that Netanyahu will remain Prime Minister, but his coalition’s lead in the Knesset has narrowed to just 4 seats at 62 to 58 (between the right and left coalitions).

I am thankful that Netanyahu will be able to stay in office. We someone with a spine as the Israeli Prime Minister.


27 posted on 01/22/2013 1:24:17 PM PST by wk4bush2004
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To: thouworm

I will focus on “winner” and let Reuters worry about “bruised.”


28 posted on 01/22/2013 1:24:52 PM PST by kabar
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To: Dave346

Assuming the average of the polls is correct:

PLAN A - Likud + Jewish Home + Shas + UTJ
PLAN B - Yesh Atid + Labor + Meretz + Hatnua + Shas + UTJ

Shas has been willing, in the past, to join left-wing governments to preserve the exemption of the orthodox from military service. We call this, “king-maker.”

Lapid, who made ending the exemption a priority in his campaign, might be thinking that if he is willing to concede on the exemption, he might be the next prime minister.

Netanyahu certainly can figure this out (he is a master at this game). Therefore, he approaches Shas and UTJ, each of which would be more comfortable in a right-wing government, and offers the concession himself.

At the same time, he approaches Lapid and asks him to join his government based on concessions other than the exemption; or - if Shas and UTJ hesitate or ever withdraw from the ruling coalition - with a promise to then review the exemption. This way Netanyahu has a chance to form a robust and balanced ruling coalition.


29 posted on 01/22/2013 1:33:21 PM PST by Redmen4ever
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To: Dave346

18 mandates for Yesh Atid?! Zeh balagan! Zot fadicha! S@#$#@!


30 posted on 01/22/2013 1:37:45 PM PST by Eleutheria5 (End the occupation. Annex today.)
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To: kabar

“I will focus on “winner” and let Reuters worry about “bruised.””

:-) No doubt Netanyahu is doing the same. lol


31 posted on 01/22/2013 1:38:16 PM PST by thouworm (.)
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To: thouworm

Also, comment made by obama made right before election: “Netanyahu doesn’t know what’s best for Israel”

You are so correct!! This man is so bold, so arrogant and now nothing can stop him -nothing is in his way. I heard/read that Chuck Hagel is on some board of directors of a group in Chicago that is Soros Funded? Imagine that. Hagel will get in and muck up the works along with John F’n Kerry (did you know I was in Vietnam) and then where will Bibi be? He is surrounded by evil and we are now turning against him. Bammy hates the USA and the Jews. Very, very dangerous for him to be leading this great nation.


32 posted on 01/22/2013 1:40:06 PM PST by WaterWeWaitinFor
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To: wk4bush2004

He will have to bring in Yesh Atid to have a stable government.

The problem is he does not have a majority in his own coalition. Back in the 1980s and the Likud and Labor were always able to win 40 seats between them.

Now they’re small parties and neither of them would be the dominant party in a coalition government.


33 posted on 01/22/2013 1:40:18 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Redmen4ever

Just as likely to be Likud-Bet, Labor, Livni, Shas & UTJ.


34 posted on 01/22/2013 1:51:00 PM PST by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: thouworm
Right now:

Halikud - Israel Beitenu מחל 22.41% 23,043

Haavoda (Labor) אמת 13.69% 14,078

Yesh Atid פה 12.48% 12,828

Jewish Home טב 10.55% 10,843

Shas שס 9.49% 9,760

Meretz מרץ 5.73% 5,892

HaTnua צפ 5.26% 5,413

Yahadut HaTora ג 4.69% 4,819

Untied Arabs עם 3.38% 3,470

Otzma LeIsrael נץ 2.04% 2,095

Kadima כן 2.03% 2,091

Balad ד 1.50% 1,539

Am Shalem ץ 1.29% 1,327

Ale Yarok קנ 1.20% 1,232

Eretz Hdasha ז 1.01% 1,040

******************************

Computer is driving me nuts. Out and in all day long.

35 posted on 01/22/2013 2:28:16 PM PST by MestaMachine (Sometimes the smartest man in the room is standing in the midst of imbeciles.)
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To: MestaMachine

The good news is the Arab fascist Balad party will not make into the Knesset.

Both Kadima and Otzma clear the 2% threshold and will make it into the next Knesset.


36 posted on 01/22/2013 2:53:53 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: dennisw; Cachelot; Nix 2; veronica; Catspaw; knighthawk; Alouette; Optimist; weikel; Lent; GregB; ..
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37 posted on 01/22/2013 3:23:50 PM PST by SJackson (The Pilgrims—Doing the jobs Native Americans wouldn’t do !)
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To: dennisw; Cachelot; Nix 2; veronica; Catspaw; knighthawk; Alouette; Optimist; weikel; Lent; GregB; ..
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38 posted on 01/22/2013 3:24:15 PM PST by SJackson (The Pilgrims—Doing the jobs Native Americans wouldn’t do !)
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To: dennisw; Cachelot; Nix 2; veronica; Catspaw; knighthawk; Alouette; Optimist; weikel; Lent; GregB; ..
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39 posted on 01/22/2013 3:25:15 PM PST by SJackson (The Pilgrims—Doing the jobs Native Americans wouldn’t do !)
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To: Dave346

Channel 2 has now adjusted their projection to 33 seats for Netanyahu’s party and 63 for the right bloc.

Will be interesting to see if these numbers keep going up as the actual votes come in.


40 posted on 01/22/2013 4:02:19 PM PST by Dave346
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To: jjotto

I don’t know if it’s quite the drubbing some are portraying it as.

In 2009 LIkud, Israel Beiteinu and Shas got a combined 53, with Likud and Beiteinu combining for 42 and Shas for 11.

Tonight it looks like Likud Beiteinu, Jeiwsh Home and Shas will combine for around 53-56, pretty much the same total.

Likud and Beiteinu do appear to have dropped at the expense of Jewish Home.

but Overall the total of the Right bloc of Likud, Beiteinu, Shas, Jewish Home, and UTJ has around the same # of seats theu had last time.


41 posted on 01/22/2013 4:07:51 PM PST by jeltz25
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To: Dave346

Now the right bloc is projected to win 64 seats. The numbers keep improving from the exit polls!


42 posted on 01/22/2013 4:27:30 PM PST by Dave346
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To: Dave346

The soldiers’ vote which leans Right is counted last, so expect the Likud and Jewish Home’s seats to go up somewhat.

All in all its not a landslide win but it looks like a mandate for another Likud-led government.

Every one expected Netanyahu to be re-elected and it looks like Likud dodged a silver bullet. I’m happy with the latest results. Its looking good!


43 posted on 01/22/2013 4:29:19 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Dave346

So in 2009 the right bloc (Likud, Beiteinu, Shas, UTJ, Jewish Home, and and the National Union) had 65 seats.

In 2013 the same parties (albeit in a slightly different configuration)apparently have 64 seats and possibly more by the time all the votes are counted.

What a collapse by Netanyahu and the right.

And it’s not like this guy Lapid is some far-left dreamer. He does appear to less belicose on Iran, but vis-a-vis the Palestinians he’s pretty much well within the mainstream, if not a bit to the right. He wants to retain most settlements, keep Jerusalem undivided, and is against the right of return. That’s very similar to Netanyahu’s position, if not virtually identical. I don’t know enough about his domestic platform to really comment.

But you read some articles and pundits and you’d think Bibi and the right totally imploded and had Dems 2010-style drubbing.

At the end of the day, they’ll likely end up right where they started. Maybe disappointing that they didn’t increase their seats, but not some huge collapse or anything.


44 posted on 01/22/2013 4:34:23 PM PST by jeltz25
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To: thouworm

Imagine how much PAIN they’re feeling at Reuters that Bibi was reelected. (ALMOST as much as I felt in Nov)


45 posted on 01/22/2013 4:49:34 PM PST by EDINVA
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To: jeltz25

The exit polls apparently interviewed left-wing voters as they left the polls - which is confirmation bias.

About 57% of the vote is in as of 2:00 AM and its gonna be a long night.

Panic in the Likud was overwrought. The polls for the last two weeks were right on the mark that the Likud would stabilize around 34-35 seats.


46 posted on 01/22/2013 4:51:31 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Dave346

Carter’s war on Jews...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKBdP2D3pqI


47 posted on 01/22/2013 4:58:24 PM PST by csmusaret (I will give Obama credit for one thing- he is living proof that familiarity breeds contempt.)
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To: goldstategop

Will still be interesting to see if he reaches out to Lapid. Lapid+Bennett and he wouldn’t need the religious parties. Although he’d have two young guys clearly angling for the top post someday soon. But it may be better to have both of them close and under his control that have Lapid out there freelancing in the opposition. Plus, Shas and UTJ are more natural Likud allies and the party will definitely need them in future knessests, you don’t want to permanently alienate them.

A wider coalition with Lapid and possibly Livni may be more stable and could be the statesmanlike act Bibi seems to go for.

Will be interesting to see what he ends up doing.


48 posted on 01/22/2013 4:58:28 PM PST by jeltz25
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To: EDINVA

JPost is now saying that Army radio is now reporting that Likud-Beteynu is “on track” for 33 seats. In the last election, Likud-B took 27 seats.....

So how is this a “bruising” for Netanyahu?? Somebody please explain. Sure the new left party Yesh Atid won 18-19 seats, but left-leaning Kadima had a catastrophic collapse, will be lucky to retain 2 seats.


49 posted on 01/22/2013 5:08:21 PM PST by cookcounty
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To: cookcounty

Its a gain of four seats. They may win a fifth by morning.

The exit polls skewed Left and all the center-left parties are losing seats and they’re going somewhere.

Netanyahu will probably wake up in the morning a very happy man!


50 posted on 01/22/2013 5:16:26 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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