Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

More Massive Winters Expected for the Northern Hemisphere
Beyond Landscheidt ^ | 31JUL2012 | Geoff Sharp

Posted on 01/22/2013 8:52:52 PM PST by Jack Hydrazine

(This was published back in July of last year.)

The coming winter in the Northern Hemisphere looks to be shaping up for another massive event perhaps bigger than what we experienced in 2011/2012. The last winter coincided with the highest level of EUV and FUV since the beginning of SC24 which although low by normal standards the current UV level is trending quite a bit lower. In fact the current level is not far above the SC22/23 minimum. At present the EUV levels are less than half of the values recorded during the peak of SC23.



There is strong evidence that low EUV and FUV are major players in determining the jet stream position and strength along with major changes to ozone quantities at different levels of the atmosphere. UV also has an influence on the NH polar vortex which when the conditions are right favoring a negative AO over the winter months. When both of these options come together the greatest effect is felt in the Northern Hemisphere. During the summer in the NH and the winter at present in the SH the mainstream media are picking up the relevance of the jet stream patterns that are occurring. This is a shift from the previous year of not only of the knowledge gained but also of the increased activity of the jet stream through 2012. If this pattern continues into 2013 we should witness some big extremes in weather with blocking highs and masses of cold air feeding from the poles.

Last season was mixed with most of the USA getting off with a warm winter, but other parts of Europe, Asia and Alaska experienced the massive event which was named the "Great Winter Freeze of 2012". The position of the jet stream was the culprit of the mixed weather which mainly saw a positive AO, but this season has the chance of being different. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a quasi-periodic oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind between easterlies and westerlies in the tropical stratosphere which last season mostly favored the formation of a positive AO. When the QBO is in easterly mode the planetary waves that disrupt the NH polar vortex are more likely to occur which tends to produce a negative AO. A negative AO in the past few winters has positioned the jet stream so that the USA and western Europe feel the worst of the Arctic cold air movement and blocking highs that perpetuate this event. The current and expected position of the QBO is looking to favor a negative AO this season. The white area is the easterly flow.



If the UV levels are still low by December which is the current trend the liklyhood of advanced jet stream formation and a negative AO are highly possible and most likely to occur. The ENSO position will also play a role but more on a local scale. Some of the coldest temperatures recorded in the UK occurred in Dec 2010 when we were in El Nino territory. All the models that are produced by the meteorology groups are pointing towards a El Nino forming this winter in the NH. I am not so sure the models have the all required data to predict accurately as we are in a different para-dime with low solar output and a neg PDO. Most that ascribe to AGW ignore the effects of solar and ocean influences on climate and prefer to claim everything is man made, the models suffer the same fate in my opinion.

The ocean temp anomaly diagram at the opening of this article shows a neg PDO position which has the customary hot spot in the central northern pacific. Last year the prevailing winds that come with a neg PDO moved some of this warm water towards New Guinea which in turn fueled the Walker circulation pump that drives the trade winds which in turn builds up water against Asia and influences the level of the Thermocline. This pushes cold water from below that surfaces off the South American coast and flows towards Asia with assistance of the trade winds. It is still too early to call but July has seen a change with the SOI going positive and the trade winds are maintained. There is still a high chance of a La Nina forming which would make three in a row.

Even if a weak El Nino forms and the QBO has no effect on the AO position the jet streams will still play a major role in forming massive winter events, that should be with us for the next 20 years at least if my solar predictions continue to play out. So far everything is right on track.



TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: globalcooling; globalwarming
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-61 next last

1 posted on 01/22/2013 8:53:00 PM PST by Jack Hydrazine
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Jack Hydrazine

Gee— we reached 72 degrees here today.

We are having a warmer than usual winter here in Texas.


2 posted on 01/22/2013 8:58:26 PM PST by basil (basil)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jack Hydrazine

It’s due to global warming.


3 posted on 01/22/2013 8:58:54 PM PST by Paleo Conservative (Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're not really out to get you.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Paleo Conservative

I thought it was caused by aliens. Cue the aliens guy!


4 posted on 01/22/2013 9:03:29 PM PST by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Jack Hydrazine

AWWW...da*n....we just got up to 37 degrees today....and there was even a little bit of sunshine!!!


5 posted on 01/22/2013 9:04:27 PM PST by goodnesswins (R.I.P. Doherty, Smith, Stevens, Woods.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jack Hydrazine

AWWW...da*n....we just got up to 37 degrees today for the first time in about 2 weeks....and there was even a little bit of sunshine!!!


6 posted on 01/22/2013 9:05:04 PM PST by goodnesswins (R.I.P. Doherty, Smith, Stevens, Woods.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jack Hydrazine
I thought it was caused by aliens. Cue the aliens guy!

True. Aliens Cause Global Warming, a lecture by Michael Crichton.

7 posted on 01/22/2013 9:06:45 PM PST by xjcsa (Ridiculing the ridiculous since the day I was born.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Jack Hydrazine

Projected high temps starting tomorrow (Wed) here in Aiken County, SC (near Augusta, GA): 52, 61, 63, 59, 52, 68, 73, 82, 73, 70 and 68. 50s and 60s are normal highs around here this time of year.

If this is a massive winter, I say bring it on.


8 posted on 01/22/2013 9:07:25 PM PST by upchuck (America's at an awkward stage. Too late to work within the system, too early to shoot the bastards.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jack Hydrazine

9 posted on 01/22/2013 9:11:49 PM PST by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: upchuck

Forecast for the Next 3 Months
http://www.weather.com/video/forecast-for-the-next-3-months-33830


10 posted on 01/22/2013 9:15:43 PM PST by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Jack Hydrazine

It’s 14 degrees Fahrenheit right now in NYC. Brrrrrrutal.


11 posted on 01/22/2013 9:18:29 PM PST by Oratam
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jack Hydrazine

Apparently the Rocky Mountains are getting a pass on northern hemisphere weather. Typical winter last year, typical winter this year.


12 posted on 01/22/2013 9:28:33 PM PST by TigersEye (Stupid is a Progressive disease.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Oratam

13 degrees here in Eastern MA.

I love the cold.

Nuts I know,but that’s the way it is.

I detest summer.

.


13 posted on 01/22/2013 9:35:11 PM PST by Mears
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Jack Hydrazine

This link is to a paper that has essentially been ignored (”Solar Resonant Diffusion Waves as a Driver of Terrestrial Climate Change”):

http://arxiv.org/abs/astroph/0701117.

There are more reasons to be concerned about global cooling than warming. If the theory explained in this paper is correct, it is the sun that is responsible for the 100,000 year ice age cycle. Interglacial periods are not the norm and we are nearing the end of this one. The beginning of the next ice age will be a disaster for humanity. If it were possible for the left to leverage this to promote their agenda, you would be hearing much more about it ...


14 posted on 01/22/2013 9:40:10 PM PST by jasonandtheb
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jasonandtheb

Actually it is the variation of the orbital eccentricity of the Earth that influences the 100K year ice age cycles.

We are on the brink of another ice age. I don’t know how much of a disaster it will be for humanity. I think it depends on how fast it sets in.


15 posted on 01/22/2013 9:56:08 PM PST by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: jasonandtheb

But what causes changes in eccentricity I don’t know. It could be precession.


16 posted on 01/22/2013 9:58:52 PM PST by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: Jack Hydrazine

Heavy winters are magic for the Rocky Mtn states. It means skiing and winter recreation, it brings drinking and irrigation water, and it’s good for the fruit trees. Bring it.


17 posted on 01/22/2013 9:59:57 PM PST by lurk
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jack Hydrazine

Well, that’s just great....where WE live, in the Northwest....will be colder all the way through April...unlike most of the rest of the country.


18 posted on 01/22/2013 10:01:04 PM PST by goodnesswins (R.I.P. Doherty, Smith, Stevens, Woods.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Jack Hydrazine

We just went from highs in the 60’s and overnight frost warnings to highs in mid 80’s in one week here in SoCal.


19 posted on 01/22/2013 10:04:52 PM PST by Mastador1 (I'll take a bad dog over a good politician any day!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jack Hydrazine

FYI - Northern California is stuck in an inconvenient and barely reported cold snap.


20 posted on 01/22/2013 10:11:07 PM PST by TauntedTiger (Keep away from the fence!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jack Hydrazine

FYI - Northern California is stuck in an inconvenient and barely reported cold snap.


21 posted on 01/22/2013 10:11:16 PM PST by TauntedTiger (Keep away from the fence!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jack Hydrazine

It’s been below 20 here in Boise since Christmas...


22 posted on 01/22/2013 10:16:33 PM PST by babygene ( .)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goodnesswins

Look on the bright side: during the last Ice Age the coastline along Washington and Oregon states was 26 miles further west!

Of course, the islands in Puget Sound were buried under ice and the animals wandering around the eastern parts of the states were wooly mammoth and rhinoceros, but I’m sure it was balmy out on those western beaches. Well, maybe.


23 posted on 01/22/2013 10:19:00 PM PST by SatinDoll (NATURAL BORN CITZEN: BORN IN THE USA OF CITIZEN PARENTS.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: Jack Hydrazine

Don’t worry, Dear Reader is on it.


24 posted on 01/22/2013 10:21:25 PM PST by beethovenfan (If Islam is the solution, the "problem" must be freedom.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TigersEye

Pocatello has had far more subzero days this year than normal. Plenty in the-9F to -14F range. More coming this weekend.


25 posted on 01/22/2013 10:31:25 PM PST by Myrddin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: babygene
It’s been below 20 here in Boise since Christmas...

I see around 0-5F right now depending right where you are, but up at Bogus Basin I see it's 36? Must be one hell of an inversion! Here, 220 miles NW of you along I-84 we've been stuck in the 20s for weeks, may break out to 30s tomorrow.

26 posted on 01/22/2013 10:35:10 PM PST by steve86 (Acerbic by Nature, not Nurture™)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: Jack Hydrazine
Ahhh! Winter!

Dropped to 25 below last night, and we had bikini weather today when it fired on up to a high of nine below...

Sposed to get near zero for a high tomorrow... Surfs Up!

27 posted on 01/22/2013 10:39:13 PM PST by JDoutrider
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Myrddin

It has been just warm enough outside to keep the house at 68 or 69 with three oil-filled resistance space heaters at 900 watts each; haven’t even run the heat pump or furnace except for a few times right at daybreak. The standalone propane fireplace is still hoping for some action but probably won’t get it. If we were at your temp I’d be burning lpg 24 hours a day. Electricity is relatively cheap here and propane, expensive like most places.


28 posted on 01/22/2013 10:44:22 PM PST by steve86 (Acerbic by Nature, not Nurture™)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: steve86

So I am using 9,200 BTU/hr to keep the hour at 68 when it is about 26 outside. Not bad for an old doublewide, eh?


29 posted on 01/22/2013 10:48:11 PM PST by steve86 (Acerbic by Nature, not Nurture™)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: steve86

“keep the hour” = “keep the house”


30 posted on 01/22/2013 10:51:55 PM PST by steve86 (Acerbic by Nature, not Nurture™)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: steve86

So your in OR? All I can say is “bring on the global warming”...


31 posted on 01/22/2013 10:53:00 PM PST by babygene ( .)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: babygene

Actually a little ways north of I-84 in Washington. We tend to get fogged in (ice fog) for weeks this time of year (curse of the Columbia Basin).


32 posted on 01/22/2013 10:55:56 PM PST by steve86 (Acerbic by Nature, not Nurture™)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: Myrddin

What’s normal there? I’m about 300 miles SE of you and we had a week of temps below zero. Some winters we have a solid two weeks of sub-zero weather 10-15 degrees lower than we just had. Some winters we have no sub-zero weather at all. Some winters we hardly have any snow. Some winters we can hardly dig out before we get some more. Been that way all of my near six decades.


33 posted on 01/22/2013 10:58:38 PM PST by TigersEye (Stupid is a Progressive disease.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: jasonandtheb

nothign the right says or proves abotu global wamring beign a natural cyclical event matters to the left- the left smells a chance to rob the pockets of everyone htrough high energy prices and carbon taxes, and nothign short of the apocolypse is goign to stop them from extortign money from americans to ‘solve a problem’ that they are not responsible for nor can they fix-

They spotted a golden goose, and now the only thign they can say when presented with the facts is ‘The mass majority of scientists who work on this issue all agree” (but of course if they didn’t agree they woudl lose their federal funds- but alas, apparently only the right is ever guilty of panderign to special interest groups accordign to the hypocrite left)

Truth no logner matters- the IPCC was caught red handed LYING abotu the role of man in global warming, caught red handed intimidatign those who didn’t agree with their lies, and yet thsi president is goiogn full steam ahead on the word of these LIARS

Fighting the left on thsi issue is a lsot cause- the ONLY way to fight that nonsense is if enough Americans band together and REFUSE to send any more tax money into the government for deriliction of duty- If all the government wants to do is rob the peopel while declaring it ‘law’ then the people’s ONLY chance at stopping the insanity is to cut fundign to the govenrment- hell- the government is tryign hteir damdest to cut our funds- Apaprently they think they are the only ones allowed to cut funding?


34 posted on 01/22/2013 11:43:15 PM PST by CottShop (Scientific belief does not constitute scientific evidence, nor does it convey scientific knowledge)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: TigersEye

We normally drop below freezing for a daily high by mid
November. The subzeros normally hit the first week of December, then warms to a range from single digits to low 20’s through mid January. The subzeros arrived just after Christmas and are ongoing.


35 posted on 01/23/2013 12:13:07 AM PST by Myrddin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: TigersEye

We normally drop below freezing for a daily high by mid
November. The subzeros normally hit the first week of December, then warms to a range from single digits to low 20’s through mid January. The subzeros arrived just after Christmas and are ongoing.


36 posted on 01/23/2013 12:13:07 AM PST by Myrddin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: Myrddin

That sounds like it’s pretty normal there then this year. Every place is going to have some swings of above and below normal temps and precip.


37 posted on 01/23/2013 12:17:26 AM PST by TigersEye (The irresponsible should not be leading the responsible.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]

To: steve86

I’m using an oil filled heater in my room in San Diego. We dropped to 37 overnight. The house isn’t built for those temps. Inside was down to low 50’s. The heater fixed my room to 70. The bathroom window remains open. No ice inside, but really cold when going for a shower.


38 posted on 01/23/2013 12:19:09 AM PST by Myrddin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: steve86

I’m using an oil filled heater in my room in San Diego. We dropped to 37 overnight. The house isn’t built for those temps. Inside was down to low 50’s. The heater fixed my room to 70. The bathroom window remains open. No ice inside, but really cold when going for a shower.


39 posted on 01/23/2013 12:19:15 AM PST by Myrddin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: Mears
Temp hovering @ 1 degree right now, supposed to drop to -4 before dawn with wind chill factor @ -15.

I'm making a nice hot chicken soup (Greek style egg-lemon) for Dufarge tonight. Good winter chow.

40 posted on 01/23/2013 12:19:52 AM PST by metesky (Brethren, leave us go amongst them! - Rev. Capt. Samuel Johnston Clayton - Ward Bond, The Searchers)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: Jack Hydrazine
More Massive Winters Expected for the Northern Hemisphere

Heh, I read the thread title:
"More Maxine Waters Expected for the Northern Hemisphere", and I got scared.

(Whew) Glad it was nothing to worry about.

41 posted on 01/23/2013 12:24:37 AM PST by Lancey Howard
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jack Hydrazine

42 posted on 01/23/2013 1:10:30 AM PST by Bratch
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jack Hydrazine

The theory that the ice ages are caused by the variation of the ellipse the earth makes as it goes around the sun due to the gravitational attraction of the larger planets is flawed:
1) It is 20,000 years out of phase
2) Their periods are more than 5,000 years different
3) The 100,000 year ice age cycle has been occurring for only 1.5 million years ... the orbital eccentricity has been around for billions of years.
4) For the first 1 million years of the 100,000 year ice age cycle, the ice ages grew progressively colder, but they have been very similar for the last 500,000 years (the last five cycles).
5) The change in solar energy reaching the earth due to the orbital eccentricity is minimal ... it would take tremendous positive feedback for it to have any affect.


43 posted on 01/23/2013 1:39:44 AM PST by jasonandtheb
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: CottShop
There are several blogs that have been addressing the scientific and ethical flaws of “global warming”. The one I look at the most is “www.climateaudit.org”. I do believe some in the scientific community are starting to have doubts.

Almost all "official" temperature predictions made over the last 15 years or so have been wrong, as they have predicted too much warming. Each successive prediction shows less warming then the previous, with the most recent including the affect of oceans (but they still don't include the affect of clouds). The weird thing is that they are still able to sell their theory as reality, even though their official predictions have never been very accurate when compared with the actual change in temperature (which, BTW, also has issues).

Some feel the warming we are currently experiencing is simply the earth coming out of the little ice age. One thousand years ago, before it began, there is evidence the earth was actually as warm (or perhaps warmer) than it is today. In fact, the retreating ice has exposed artifacts frozen in the ice from the middle age time period (meaning the ice was not there one thousand years ago). Before the little ice age, Greenland had a much larger population, which reduced in size as it got colder. The cause of the little ice age has not be determined ... but note there was a fifty year period within it where there were no observable sun spots (an active sun has more sun spots than a less active sun).

44 posted on 01/23/2013 1:40:01 AM PST by jasonandtheb
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: Jack Hydrazine

Alaska is way warmer than usual, normally I am about 10F minus to 10F above, but its over 35F during the day, and not a lot of snow, but we broke snowfall records last year and thats unusual because where I live we actually don’t get a lot of snow being semi-arid here around Wasilla.


45 posted on 01/23/2013 1:50:28 AM PST by Eye of Unk (AR2 2013 is the American Revolution part 2 of 2013)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jack Hydrazine

Not EUV or FUV don’t you know its cause of your SUV? And your other republican sins. We must make sacrifice to Gaia. Bring forth the unblemished maidens and offer orangutans and breakfast cereals... this is how they will see us in the future.


46 posted on 01/23/2013 3:13:34 AM PST by epluribus_2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jack Hydrazine

There is a chill over the land and it comes from Washington D.C..


47 posted on 01/23/2013 4:54:01 AM PST by DH (Once the tainted finger of government touches anything the rot begins)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jasonandtheb
"If it were possible for the left to leverage this to promote their agenda, you would be hearing much more about it ..."

The left always leverages events to its agenda. They spun from global cooling to global warming in the 80's without even blinking. Jame Hansen, NASA's high priest of global warming even did a college paper on the horrors of.....global cooling. The source will always be the same: mankind, and the solution will always be the same: bigger government.

48 posted on 01/23/2013 6:22:47 AM PST by norwaypinesavage (Galileo: In science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of one individual)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: Jack Hydrazine

The HIGH temperature the other day was -2...living on the northern plains isn’t for wussies.


49 posted on 01/23/2013 6:48:51 AM PST by The Great RJ
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jack Hydrazine

“This just in - Winters are cold, Summers are hot. Film at 11:00”


50 posted on 01/23/2013 6:53:23 AM PST by ops33 (Senior Master Sergeant, USAF (Retired))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-61 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson