More Massive Winters Expected for the Northern Hemisphere

Beyond Landscheidt ^ | 31JUL2012 | Geoff Sharp

[Jack Hydrazine]

(This was published back in July of last year.)

The coming winter in the Northern Hemisphere looks to be shaping up for another massive event perhaps bigger than what we experienced in 2011/2012. The last winter coincided with the highest level of EUV and FUV since the beginning of SC24 which although low by normal standards the current UV level is trending quite a bit lower. In fact the current level is not far above the SC22/23 minimum. At present the EUV levels are less than half of the values recorded during the peak of SC23.



There is strong evidence that low EUV and FUV are major players in determining the jet stream position and strength along with major changes to ozone quantities at different levels of the atmosphere. UV also has an influence on the NH polar vortex which when the conditions are right favoring a negative AO over the winter months. When both of these options come together the greatest effect is felt in the Northern Hemisphere. During the summer in the NH and the winter at present in the SH the mainstream media are picking up the relevance of the jet stream patterns that are occurring. This is a shift from the previous year of not only of the knowledge gained but also of the increased activity of the jet stream through 2012. If this pattern continues into 2013 we should witness some big extremes in weather with blocking highs and masses of cold air feeding from the poles.

Last season was mixed with most of the USA getting off with a warm winter, but other parts of Europe, Asia and Alaska experienced the massive event which was named the "Great Winter Freeze of 2012". The position of the jet stream was the culprit of the mixed weather which mainly saw a positive AO, but this season has the chance of being different. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a quasi-periodic oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind between easterlies and westerlies in the tropical stratosphere which last season mostly favored the formation of a positive AO. When the QBO is in easterly mode the planetary waves that disrupt the NH polar vortex are more likely to occur which tends to produce a negative AO. A negative AO in the past few winters has positioned the jet stream so that the USA and western Europe feel the worst of the Arctic cold air movement and blocking highs that perpetuate this event. The current and expected position of the QBO is looking to favor a negative AO this season. The white area is the easterly flow.



If the UV levels are still low by December which is the current trend the liklyhood of advanced jet stream formation and a negative AO are highly possible and most likely to occur. The ENSO position will also play a role but more on a local scale. Some of the coldest temperatures recorded in the UK occurred in Dec 2010 when we were in El Nino territory. All the models that are produced by the meteorology groups are pointing towards a El Nino forming this winter in the NH. I am not so sure the models have the all required data to predict accurately as we are in a different para-dime with low solar output and a neg PDO. Most that ascribe to AGW ignore the effects of solar and ocean influences on climate and prefer to claim everything is man made, the models suffer the same fate in my opinion.

The ocean temp anomaly diagram at the opening of this article shows a neg PDO position which has the customary hot spot in the central northern pacific. Last year the prevailing winds that come with a neg PDO moved some of this warm water towards New Guinea which in turn fueled the Walker circulation pump that drives the trade winds which in turn builds up water against Asia and influences the level of the Thermocline. This pushes cold water from below that surfaces off the South American coast and flows towards Asia with assistance of the trade winds. It is still too early to call but July has seen a change with the SOI going positive and the trade winds are maintained. There is still a high chance of a La Nina forming which would make three in a row.

Even if a weak El Nino forms and the QBO has no effect on the AO position the jet streams will still play a major role in forming massive winter events, that should be with us for the next 20 years at least if my solar predictions continue to play out. So far everything is right on track.

[TauntedTiger]

FYI - Northern California is stuck in an inconvenient and barely reported cold snap.

[babygene]

It’s been below 20 here in Boise since Christmas...

[SatinDoll]

Look on the bright side: during the last Ice Age the coastline along Washington and Oregon states was 26 miles further west!

Of course, the islands in Puget Sound were buried under ice and the animals wandering around the eastern parts of the states were wooly mammoth and rhinoceros, but I’m sure it was balmy out on those western beaches. Well, maybe.

[beethovenfan]

Don’t worry, Dear Reader is on it.

[Myrddin]

Pocatello has had far more subzero days this year than normal. Plenty in the-9F to -14F range. More coming this weekend.

[steve86]

It’s been below 20 here in Boise since Christmas...

I see around 0-5F right now depending right where you are, but up at Bogus Basin I see it's 36? Must be one hell of an inversion! Here, 220 miles NW of you along I-84 we've been stuck in the 20s for weeks, may break out to 30s tomorrow.

[JDoutrider]

Ahhh! Winter!

Dropped to 25 below last night, and we had bikini weather today when it fired on up to a high of nine below...

Sposed to get near zero for a high tomorrow... Surfs Up!

[steve86]

It has been just warm enough outside to keep the house at 68 or 69 with three oil-filled resistance space heaters at 900 watts each; haven’t even run the heat pump or furnace except for a few times right at daybreak. The standalone propane fireplace is still hoping for some action but probably won’t get it. If we were at your temp I’d be burning lpg 24 hours a day. Electricity is relatively cheap here and propane, expensive like most places.

[steve86]

So I am using 9,200 BTU/hr to keep the hour at 68 when it is about 26 outside. Not bad for an old doublewide, eh?

[steve86]

“keep the hour” = “keep the house”

[babygene]

So your in OR? All I can say is “bring on the global warming”...

[steve86]

Actually a little ways north of I-84 in Washington. We tend to get fogged in (ice fog) for weeks this time of year (curse of the Columbia Basin).

[TigersEye]

What’s normal there? I’m about 300 miles SE of you and we had a week of temps below zero. Some winters we have a solid two weeks of sub-zero weather 10-15 degrees lower than we just had. Some winters we have no sub-zero weather at all. Some winters we hardly have any snow. Some winters we can hardly dig out before we get some more. Been that way all of my near six decades.

[CottShop]

nothign the right says or proves abotu global wamring beign a natural cyclical event matters to the left- the left smells a chance to rob the pockets of everyone htrough high energy prices and carbon taxes, and nothign short of the apocolypse is goign to stop them from extortign money from americans to ‘solve a problem’ that they are not responsible for nor can they fix-

They spotted a golden goose, and now the only thign they can say when presented with the facts is ‘The mass majority of scientists who work on this issue all agree” (but of course if they didn’t agree they woudl lose their federal funds- but alas, apparently only the right is ever guilty of panderign to special interest groups accordign to the hypocrite left)

Truth no logner matters- the IPCC was caught red handed LYING abotu the role of man in global warming, caught red handed intimidatign those who didn’t agree with their lies, and yet thsi president is goiogn full steam ahead on the word of these LIARS

Fighting the left on thsi issue is a lsot cause- the ONLY way to fight that nonsense is if enough Americans band together and REFUSE to send any more tax money into the government for deriliction of duty- If all the government wants to do is rob the peopel while declaring it ‘law’ then the people’s ONLY chance at stopping the insanity is to cut fundign to the govenrment- hell- the government is tryign hteir damdest to cut our funds- Apaprently they think they are the only ones allowed to cut funding?

[Myrddin]

We normally drop below freezing for a daily high by mid
November. The subzeros normally hit the first week of December, then warms to a range from single digits to low 20’s through mid January. The subzeros arrived just after Christmas and are ongoing.

[Myrddin]

We normally drop below freezing for a daily high by mid
November. The subzeros normally hit the first week of December, then warms to a range from single digits to low 20’s through mid January. The subzeros arrived just after Christmas and are ongoing.

[TigersEye]

That sounds like it’s pretty normal there then this year. Every place is going to have some swings of above and below normal temps and precip.

[Myrddin]

I’m using an oil filled heater in my room in San Diego. We dropped to 37 overnight. The house isn’t built for those temps. Inside was down to low 50’s. The heater fixed my room to 70. The bathroom window remains open. No ice inside, but really cold when going for a shower.

[Myrddin]

I’m using an oil filled heater in my room in San Diego. We dropped to 37 overnight. The house isn’t built for those temps. Inside was down to low 50’s. The heater fixed my room to 70. The bathroom window remains open. No ice inside, but really cold when going for a shower.

[metesky]

Temp hovering @ 1 degree right now, supposed to drop to -4 before dawn with wind chill factor @ -15.

I'm making a nice hot chicken soup (Greek style egg-lemon) for Dufarge tonight. Good winter chow.