Posted on 01/28/2013 3:06:44 PM PST by neverdem
Whatever happens it’s reassuring to know that we can count on Obama to back the wrong side.
We're not 'due' for another GREAT war for another 7 years(2020). Things will probably simmer and gradually escalate until then. This is certainly well worth watching.
No one trusts the PLA. They are picking fights with all their neighbors.
The People’s Liberation Army is on the same track as the Imperial Japanese Navy and Army at the beginning of the 20th century. Any victory they have will only wet their appetite for more. Each victory they gain will not only be a victory over a foreign competitor but will also be a victory over domestic civilian rivals. That means that any victory for the PLA will also be a defeat for the CPC and the Chinese people.
No one trusts the PLA. They are picking fights with all their neighbors.
The People’s Liberation Army is on the same track as the Imperial Japanese Navy and Army at the beginning of the 20th century. Any victory they have will only wet their appetite for more. Each victory they gain will not only be a victory over a foreign competitor but will also be a victory over domestic civilian rivals. That means that any victory for the PLA will also be a defeat for the CPC and the Chinese people.
My youngest daughter is teaching English in Japan, and on our Sunday Skype with her yesterday, she mentioned this, as the Japanese have put some fishing vessels and people on this island recently.
I’d be interested to hear some opinions from Japanese citizens. Are they worried?
My sense of this from listening to my daughter is that, yes, the Japanese people are worried. The Chinese are becoming a bit aggressive, and they are worried.
” I’d be interested to hear some opinions from Japanese citizens. Are they worried? “
I have lived in Japan for 27 years . Worried ? Perhaps , but I don’t hear talking about it much . Too busy trying to eak out a living in this crap economy we’re stuck with , and higher consumption and other taxes on the horizon .
The rape of Nanking, the “comfort women”, etc. etc.
Right now we see the Chinese as the bad guys (and no doubt they are) but it wasn’t THAT long ago that the Japanese wore the black hats. And to a country like China that sees things against the perspective of a 5000 year history, those things could have happened just yesterday.
Think about what you wrote. The Chinese government is not as foolish as you think. They are thinking long term, and can wait to initiate war at a future time when they are stronger. They remember their history, when they were beaten down by foreigners in the 19th century. Japan beat China in the 1890s. Japan would have taken the entire country except for the intervention of western powers that restrained Japan. Japan got a second chance in WWII and again got defeated by western powers.
China is still weak, but growing stronger. Japan is strong, but growing weaker. China will not let this escalate to war at this time. They will wait, perhaps ten to fifteen years when they are very strong. I know it sounds crazy because of all this talk of China getting strong economically, but China can lose a war at this point for various reasons.
Does China have all the time in the world? China could fractionate or Japan could go nuclear and fortify defense treaties with India and Southeast Asian nations to prevent Chinese hegemony in the area. If China gets aggressive it will lose a lot of investment and access to markets that it needs for the constant economic growth its population demands to stay pacified. I’m not saying China is harmless, but it has its own strategic concerns that might force it to act in the near term.
Why I never waste my time on NRO:
The Chinese have never before in history made a claim on the Senkaku Islands until now. Why would they have? Useless unpopulated pieces of rock far outside the Chinese sphere of interest. Only now, when oil and gas resources have been confirmed offshore these islands, does China "reassert a historical claim." The author is a liar and NRO is bullshit heaven. Once again.
They could probably take out the Chinese Navy quite handily. On land, "The Human Wave" thing could be a problem. The Chinamen took 1.5 million casualties in Korea just to prove a point. However, more recently they had their ass handed to them quite smartly in a small war by of all people, the Vietnamese.
My vote for the next war is Korea.
Free Traders are nervous. I do know this: If Free Traders have to choose between Japan and ChiComs, they’ll pick the ChiComs. Can’t interfere with trade. Those container ships gotta float.
What you say makes a great deal of sense *except* look at the actions China is taking now. They are rattling every saber they have in their display case. According to the WSJ they are flying fighter sorties over the islands, as well as the actions they have taken on water, as well as the anti-Japanese demonstrations in the cities, actions against Japanese countries and the list goes on and on.
As the WSJ points out the potential for a real flashpoint keeps getting higher and higher.
I don’t see either side handling this from a purely strategic point of view. Too much raw emotion on both sides. Which was exactly my original point.
Yes, that's always the danger. China is rattling their sabre to distract the home crowd from economic and other issues. Refocus the citizenry away from complaining about their government, to a common external enemy. But sometimes things get out of control. That's what happened over a hundred years ago in the 1890's, similar sabre rattling on both sides and when an important guy working for Japanese interests got offed, the war was on. That time, the fighting was over control of Korean land. And the Japanese won, but western powers stopped the Japanese from taking China. This time around, the western powers are not on China's side. China will be careful, but as you say a powder keg can explode for tiny reasons.
Anything is possible, yes. Lots of possibilities, and something unexpected could happen. India is a wild card, and you're right, they are competing with China. And China thinks it has a manifest destiny in controlling the region, for the best interests of Asian nations (as did Japan in the 1930s). Pass the popcorn around, this will be interesting to watch over the next ten years.
Basically what we’ve got is the Hatfields and the McCoys having another go and the sheriff is drunk in another county.
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