China and Japan are the real powder keg. Japan is now launching the beginnings of a full-blown currency war (out of desperation, more than anything else), while China is exactly as you state. Ordinarily, I don’t buy any “x will start a war” kind of theories, but it wouldn’t shock me at all to find those two at war by year’s end.
I’m wondering about the part India will play. They’ve been preparing.
“but it wouldn’t shock me at all to find those two at war by year’s end.”
You forgot to add us, the US, to that war.