Posted on 01/30/2013 7:37:52 PM PST by hiho hiho
Spiegel has finally gotten around to conceding that global warming has ended, at least for the time being.
Yesterday Spiegel science journalist Axel Bojanowski published a piece called: Klimawandel: Forscher rätseln über Stillstand bei Erderwärmung (Climate change: scientists baffled by the stop in global warming).
We’ve been waiting for this admission a long time, and watching the media reaction is interesting to say the least. Bojanowski writes that “The word has been out for quite some time now that the climate is developing differently than predicted earlier”. He poses the question: “How many more years of stagnation are needed before scientists rethink their predictions of future warming?”
Bojanowski adds (emphasis added):
15 years without warming are now behind us. The stagnation of global near-surface average temperatures shows that the uncertainties in the climate prognoses are surprisingly large. The public is now waiting with suspense to see if the next UN IPCC report, due in September, is going to discuss the warming stop.”
The big question now circulating through the stunned European media, governments and activist organisations is how could the warming stop have happened? Moreover, how do we now explain it to the public? To find an answer, Bojanowski contacted a number of sources. The result, in summary: scientists are now left only to speculate over an entire range of possible causes. Uncertainty in climate science indeed has never been greater. It’s back to square one.
One explanation Spiegel presents is that the oceans have somehow absorbed the heat and are now hiding it somewhere. Yet, Bojanowski writes that there is very little available data to base this on: “There is a lot of uncertainty concerning the development of the water temperature. It has long appeared that also the oceans have not warmed further since 2003.” Spiegel then quotes Kevin Trenberth concerning NASA’s claim that they’ve detected a warming of the oceans: “The uncertainties with the data are too great. We need to improve our measurements“.
Spiegel also writes that the missing heat may be lurking somewhere deep in the oceans. But here Bojanowski [Spiegel] quotes Doug Smith of the Met Office: “This is very difficult to confirm“. Jochem Marotzke of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI) suspects that energy has been conveyed to the ocean’s interior, but there’s a dire lack of data to confirm this. Bojanowski writes over the current state of ocean data measurement: “Without intensifying the data measurement network, we are going to have to wait a long time for any proof“.
Scientists also suspect that the stratosphere may have something to do with the recent global temperature stall. Susan Solomon says the stratosphere has gotten considerably drier, and so warming at the surface may have been reduced by a quarter. But Bojanowski reminds us that under the bottom line, the scientists are pretty much without a clue; he writes:
‘However, climate models do not illustrate stratospheric water vapour very well,’ says Marotzke. The prognoses thus remain vague.”
Well then, maybe it’s due to aerosols from China and India blocking out the sun, some scientists are speculating, and ”thus weakening warming by one third“. Spiegel writes that “If the air were cleaner, then climate warming would accelerate.” But aerosols have always been used a convenient joker in climate models to explain unexpected cooling, such as from 1945 to 1980.
In fact, all the explanations presented by Bojanowski above have already been thoroughly looked at in a book- one year ago – by a pair of scientists: Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt and Dr. Sebastian Lüning. Last year much of the media massively ostracised them for floating “crude theories”. A year later it’s indeed strange to see that their “crude theories” are now completely in vogue.
How does Bojanowski sum it up? “The numerous possible explanations do show just how imprecisely climate is understood.”
Trenberth is left with only anecdotes, isolated singular events
Yet, as Bojanowski points out, some scientists refuse to give up on the AGW theory. He writes:
Under the bottom line, there are a number of various ominous signs of warming: rising sea levels, Arctic sea ice reduced by a half in the summertime, melting glaciers. At some locations there are signs that extreme weather events are increasing. ‘There are many signs of global warming,’ emphasizes Kevon Trenberth, “near surface air temperatures is only one of them.’”
Sorry, but isolated singular events do not constitute trends, let alone science. Prof. Trenberth really ought to know that. This is pathetic. The observed data and measured trends have stopped showing global warming. So are scientists now claiming that singular events are robust signs? This would be only one step away from astrology!
Bojanowski reminds us again that the science is poorly understood and that a number of factors are at play. He writes:
Indeed new surprising data keep popping up. Recently a new study appeared showing that soot particles from unfiltered diesel engine exhaust and open fires have had an impact on warming that is twice as high as what was first thought.”
Bojanowski also tells his readers that “Computer simulations have shown that warming has made tropical storms more seldom.”
He also mentions other factors that are poorly understood, such as: solar radiation’s impact on clouds, water vapour cycles, and natural and man-made aerosols.
Short term prognoses remain “especially uncertain”. But longterm ones are sure?
Spiegel at the end of the article seems to be duped into thinking that short-term prognoses are uncertain, but longterm ones are rather sure. Spiegel quotes warmist Jochem Marotzke of the MPI:
Climate prognoses over time periods of a few years still remain especially uncertain. ‘Our forecasting system in this regard still lets us down,’ says MPI director Marotzke. “But we’re still working on it.”
This to me appears to be an attempt to have readers believe that although they’ve botched the short-term projections completely, they are likely still right about the longterm projections of warming. Now take five minutes to get your laughing under control. … If the models failed for the first 15 years, then they are no good! Period! They’re crap, and you cannot rely on them for projecting the long-term. They belong in one place only: the dustbin! How long must we wait before climate scientists return to science?
Don’t get me wrong, at least this article, admitting something is terribly amiss, is a very encouraging step in the right direction. But it’s difficult to remain hopeful when climate scientists continue demonstrating that they do not even know what proper scientific methodology is.
Lastly, I like they way Bojanowski ends his piece:
Current prognoses warn of a 5°C warming if CO2 emissions continue as before. But it is not now well-known just how much natural climate impacts are able to change the temperature development – the new NASA data have revealed this as well.”
Spiegel science writers would be well-advised to read Fritz Vahrenholt’s and Sebastian Lüning’s “Die kalte Sonne“. Practically every question brought up by Bojanowski has been answered there – one year ago. Moreover, Lüning”s and Vahrenholt’s temperature model for the next 100 years so far has been dead on.
Story they definitely will not run on Al-Gorezeera
Science and politics don’t mix well.
BTTT
Regardless, weather panics are irrelevant now. They've found other effective ways to destroy America. It's called Obama.
The Climate “Scientists” should stick to hindcasting.
I REALLY doubt that the Sheeple will be waiting. EVERYTHING they have been told, and believe, points to imminent global warming catastrophe that must end RIGHT NOW.
And Obama needs things like this to carry out his agenda. Just like every other “crisis” that he has milked. The crisis of people dieing on the streets because of no health insurance. The crisis of all of our kids being shot with “assault weapons”. Just like those two false crisis, the global warming “crisis” will also be used.
“Some folks say there is no warming - even scientists. But things are so complicated it is hard to predict. But, we KNOW that we MUST reduce our emissions before it is too late because we KNOW in our hearts that it is bad.”
” - - - a 5°C warming if CO2 emissions continue as before. - - - “
There is no known Cause-and-Effect for this assumption. Therefore it is a false assumption, a speculation, a pillar of Junk Science.
tis the warming causing the CO2, not the CO2 causing the warming....
” I am sure Al Gore is on suicide watch after reading this.”
Naw, he’s still trying to make amends to his Communist father looking in on him from Hell telling him he failed in his given fatherly mission to become President. Al is just doing all of this to say “see dad, I really did amount to something, sort of.” ( And I made a $hitpot full of money doing it)
Yeah, Sure Global Warming is hiding in the ocean. Probably in the same place the mermaids and Kraken are hiding.
Also, what law of physics allows hot water to sink below cold?
Ping for later.
Actually, this scenario is extremely common in science. Note the laws of probability, for an obvious one. I cannot know whether heads will turn up with the next flip, but I can state with a great deal of certainty how many times it will turn up in the next one million flips.
Which is not to say that it is appropriate to apply it in this case.
It’s raining here in January so it must be back on now.......
Obviously none of these fools have tried to heat a large body of water by modifying the temperature of the atmosphere above the water.
Read recently that there is more heat in the top 10 feet of the ocean then in all the atmosphere.
Well... It was 71 deg. (F) with severe t-storms, local flooding, and small tornados here yesterday; tomorrow morning the forecast is for 15 deg. F and maybe a little snow. This is not a record, but it does help keep one on their toes:
Kirk: The planet is destroying itself!
Klingon: Yes, exhilarating, isn't it?!!!
One wonders what some of these weenies would do if the period of glaciation that is just about due (if past cycles stay consistent) were to occur.
It is not stopping California from implementing massive land and water use changes (CA Water Plan) justified by
“climate change.” Heck, they are even restructuring government aligning it into a top down regional model with harmonization of General Planning.
In that case it is gone. The deep oceans are about 35 degrees. If they warm to 35.1 and that water returns to the surface, the atmosphere will cool.
If there was no man around the warming from the ending of the Little Ice Age would have added about 5-10 ppm of CO2 to the atmosphere (basically by warming the oceans about 1C). Instead we have seen more than 100 ppm rise. The ocean now absorbs net CO2, doesn't release it (net). The only scientific question is whether the land sinks will grow (probably) and those and the ocean will continue to damp the human-made CO2 rise.
Unfortunately there is no such balance on the cool side.
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