Skip to comments.How the Republicans Could Lose the House
Posted on 02/02/2013 12:10:03 PM PST by Kaslin
The Republican Party is in danger of another big loss. This time, they could lose the House of Representatives, giving the Democrats control of both chambers as well as the White House.
The Democratic Party cannot possibly achieve this victory on its own. We are experiencing the slowest recovery in our nations history. Economic growth is tepid. The job numbers are awful. Millions of people are out of work precisely because of the policies of the Obama administration.
Ask any employer, any banker, any investor regardless of party affiliation and you are likely to hear the same stories. ObamaCare is making companies reluctant to hire. Dodd/Frank financial reform is making banks reluctant to lend. President Obamas continuing threat to raise taxes is making investors reluctant to invest. Labor policy and environmental regulations are compounding these negative factors.
Plus, Democrats have another big problem: ObamaCare will take $716 billion out of Medicare over the next 10 years and spend it on health insurance for the non-elderly. As senior citizens have increasing difficulty finding doctors who will accept them and as they face increasingly lengthy waits for their care, everyone in Congress will feel their wrath.
The next election, therefore, should be an easy win for the GOP. But so should have the last one. Democrats can only win if the Republicans cooperate in allowing them to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
How might Republicans cooperate in their own demise? By engaging in no-win battles over the budget and allowing Democrats to seize a public relations victory in the process.
At the end of this month, the automatic spending cuts (budget sequester) kicks in. At the end of next month there will be a close-down-the-government (continuing resolution) moment. Then there will be a debt ceiling standoff probably in May. Each of these episodes is fraught with danger for the GOP. To make matters worse, House Republicans seem to have a suicidal desire to keep passing budgets that have no chance of passage, but can be easily demagogued by the other side.
Lets get three basic truths out on the table: (1) We have a long-term entitlement spending crisis, under which promises we have made far outstretch any foreseeable revenues; however, (2) reform is virtually impossible unless both parties cooperate; and (3) if one party tries to push through a reform on a totally partisan basis that party is likely to lose the next time voters get to vote.
Reform of major institutions almost always creates more visible losers than winners in the short run. An example is ObamaCare. The president and the Democrats in Congress foolishly pushed the measure through without a single Republican vote. The upshot: Democrats got crushed in the 2010 elections. The Republicans not only took the House of Representatives, they won huge down ballot races all over the country.
The Democrats did walk away with a consolation prize, however. They got the health reform they wanted. Republicans are poised to make a similar mistake. But, unlike their opponents, they will walk away completely empty handed.
Yes we do have a problem of continuing and unsustainable federal deficit spending. But the Republicans in Congress cannot force the Democrats to reform Social Security. They cannot force the Democrats to reform Medicare. Or Medicaid. Or the disabilities program. Or any other major social insurance program.
If they try, President Obama will claim he is trying to protect seniors against Republican attempts to destroy the institutions they depend upon. Republicans will be accused of trying to raise the age of eligibility for Social Security and Medicare, of tinkering with the payment formulas to lower benefits and of privatization all highly unpopular reforms.
Democrats will also make another argument. They will accuse the Republicans of hurting the recovery by creating uncertainty. There is a lot of evidence that public policy uncertainty is a chief cause of our slow recovery. Further, the policies of the Obama administration are the main source of that uncertainty. But Democrats could turn the tables on that issue if Republicans engage in highly visible budget battles with the president.
So what should Republicans do?
First, remind voters at every turn that we have a long-term entitlement spending crisis and that the Obama administration has contributed to that crisis primarily by creating an entitlement benefit for the nonelderly that is not paid for in any realistic way.
Second, signal a willingness to negotiate with the president and with Democrats in Congress to reform the entitlement programs that almost everyone agrees must be reformed.
Third, avoid the appearance of trying to force the White House to reform Social Security and Medicare against the presidents wishes.
Finally, avoid voting for budgets that have no chance of passage and that imply deep cuts in Social Security and Medicare.
How come media advice for how Republican politicians should act is always different from advice for how Democrat politicians should act?
Put another way, when was the last time Democrats were advised to moderate their positions in order to make themselves appear reasonable?
Final thought. Over the past several months, the NRA has been unyielding in its support of the 2nd Amendment. All the while, the NRA has been accused by msm’ers of being an extremist organization. So who is winning the public opinion fight over the 2nd amendment - the NRA or the MSM? I think we all know the answer to that question. And therein lies a lesson for the GOP.
I think the NRA supports gun control. It helps them raise money.
Of course the RINOublicans will lose the house .
That is the way of the RINO.
And they will, if Boner has anything to do with it.
Put another way, when was the last time Democrats were advised to moderate their positions in order to make themselves appear reasonable?Why should they? They're winning.
One word GOP. Now, and in the future:
Because in 2010, the repubs won a blow out across the nation, we got control most of the redistricting for the 2012 election.
In 2012, more voters in Ohio voted for the democrat congressmen, but the gop won 11 out of 16 seats.
This was also true nationwide as the dems got more votes, but we still held the house.
Until 2022, it will be almost impossible for the dems to control the house.
It was the same in 1984. The repubs won more votes, but the dems had an overwhelming majority in the house of reps due to gerrymandering.
Bottomline: if you are a political party, you do not want to get blown out in 2010 or 2020 or you will suffer the consequences.
The Ohio House and Ohio Senate are similarly gerrymandered to shut out the dems for the next decade. Of course the dems did it to us in IL, MD and CA.
The RNC needs to fire all their PR people.
Are you planning to stay home again to teach the GOP a lesson like in the 2006 election when we lost the House and Pelosi took over, and then was able to cram the 0bamaCare down our throat. Don’t tell me you want o make the same mistake
And you are going to to everything help them to lose it, aren’t you?
And since you don’t know the Speaker of the House’s correct name tells me a lot
The weepy Speaker deserves all the disrespect he gets her at FR.
However, elections are won and lost on salesmanship. We have the most boring candidates, they don't know how to present information and that is why we lose. They should spend money on the best public relations firm they can find. Salesmanship works.
As much as I enjoy your posts, I cannot and will not vote for RINOs’.
While I am registered as a Republican and will vote in the Texas Republican primaries, IF we do not have a primary challenger to my local RINO, I will not vote for him in the Primary.
In the general I will vote OTHER than Republican for this position. No longer interested in the ever expanding reach of the Federal G’ment, whether at the hands of the Rinos or Rats.
We have had too many years of the Bushes, McCains and Romneys at the Federal level. Not to mention the Senate.
We do have one very bright spot in Senator Cruz I am very happy to say
No...the#1 issue that will cost the GOP the House in ‘14 will be passing Illegal Alien Amnesty. They can talk cute and conservative all they want....but it will be moot if they push multi trillion dollar Amnesty
GOP talk radio and media need to stop pandering to Amnesty Liberals...you aren’t going to beat the Dems dumping the Conservative base for Aliens and Hispanics
If Republicans compromise on any Second Amendment issues, they’ll lose the House. Voter numbers sometimes trump campaign funding from special interest groups.
I don’t think the RINO threats of “you’re letting Dems win” isn’t going to work anymore. If fact, your attitude is why we keep getting RINO Liberal candidates that the conservative base cannot rally behind. Sesn Hannity liberalism is why the GOP is in the present state.....too many voting only because there is an R next to their name.
And the GOP is making worse w the Amnesty Liberal nonsense
Okay now lets say there is a Republican running, that you do not care for, but there is also a rat running that you care even less for but has a better chance to win then the Republican. So what do you do, sit at home or hold your nose and vote for the Republican or waste your vote and vote for a third party candidate that absolutely no chance whatsoever?
Who and where are they? If there are any, they are few and far between. That's who lost in 2006 and 2008, RINOs in seats that couldn't be gerrymandered against rats that claimed to be prolife, pro 2nd amendment, fiscally conservative, etc., as needed where needed. According to Michael Barone in a recent column, 43 % of GOP House members were elected in 2010 and 2012, i.e. the Tea Party cohort.
As I stated, I am looking forward to a primary challenge in the Republican primary.
The STRAW argument of voting for a Rino or not voting is just that - crap
I am not longer a Republican, I am an American who loves freedom. Naturalized in 1974. I know what Communism looks like and feels like
I expect better from you Kaslin
Kaslin, you have to accept that there is some small percentage of people that are largely politically useless. These types of folks have an inability to understand that general elections in our 2 party system (winner take all, no opportunity for coalition government) are not an affirmative endorsement of any candidate, rather they are simply a choice between the only candidates that can win. You can't reason with these people (though I'll admit it is sometimes fun to try). They will throw away their votes on 3rd parties and vanity candidates pretty regularly - and never understand they've accomplished virtually nothing (other than making themselves look foolish). The good news is, both left and right have a small percentage of these people and they mostly cancel each other out. Additionally, for every one of these kinds of peeps that gets the bright idea to flush their vote down the toilet on some goofy 3rd party, one of their former numbers tend to realize what a dumb thing it is to do and goes back to voting for one of the candidates that can actually win. It all balances out.
The Democrats pretty much controlled the House since 1933 until 1995 for the exception of the 1947th and 1953rd House terms. Then in 1995 the Republicans took controlled and have maintained control except for the four years between 2007 to 2010.
They mostly raise money to fight gun control by supporting politicians who support the second amendment. You could argue that the battles over gun control give them more cash flow, but that's not necessarily bad.
A better question is do we send our money to support conservative candidates or give money to the R party which supports RINOs? The answer is not very simple. Many people here say they refuse to give to the R party (good) but not many say they send money to conservative candidates instead. I suggested that once early last year and was told I should pray instead.
It might be similar to trying to stop sharks in a feeding frenzy...They smell blood, all bets are off...
I would almost say give them more rope to hang themselves, but that is a tricky sale, and I do not believe there is a single republican/consservative for that matter skilled enough to play that card correctly to where it would benefit the country...
I believe we will be in for a lengthy and subtle battle that will be waged to protect their own hides when the time comes, and the democrats will edge ever closer to the majority again in the only place we have left to somewhat protect us...
When that time comes, it’ll be up to us...But are we ready for that battle ourselves??? And in sufficient numbers???
I actually have my doubts...I hope to once again be proven wrong...
and the democrats will edge ever closer to the majority again in the only place we have left to somewhat protect us...
Bring back US jobs.
Stop importing so much.
Then we would have more jobs, and more Republicans.
Wake up people.
Not to put a fine point on this, but yes, the republicans have been canceling each other out. The Northeast RINOs like Rockefeller in the 70’s now have relocated to the Southeast (Linda Grahmansty)and to the west (McCain). The Norteaster RINO’s (Romney) are still there.
The Texas Rinos - The Elite Bushes grew/expanded the Federal G’ment.
But than maybe this is what Republican means to you Longbow1969? That is a question.
I wish I had better answers
I will say that for the most part, the only vulnerable republicans in the house are “rinos”.
That is because the hard line conservatives are in safe districts while the rinos are usually in the swing districts.
Lets face it. Who was more vulnerable last election, Ted Cruz from Texas or Scott Brown from Mass.
Basically, the conservative is never elected in a swing or dem leaning district so they are never an incumbent who can lose. While the moderate is usually never in a safe seat.
by being spineless republican elites instead of tea party patriots?
Democrats just say anything scandals against Republicans and the press and many voters believe it.
Disgusting situation and not anything Republicans did.
We need to take the press back.
Democrats just say anything scandalous against Republicans and the press and many voters believe it.
Disgusting situation and not anything Republicans did.
We need to take the press back.
You said it
blah, blah, blah
The Republican Party is dead to me.
Texas newspapers never complained when Dallas-area Dem congressman Marty Frost got together with Gov. Ann Richards in 1991 to gerrymander hell out of the Texas Lege and the U.S. Congressional Districts.
But when Tom Delay turned the tables in 2001, hell wouldn't hold the whining and sniveling from the JournoRats, and they universally called for superpartisan 'Rat prosecutor Ronnie Earle in Austin (who once prosecuted Kay Bailey Hutchison because some of her staffers had made political-campaign calls on her state telephones) to prosecute Delay and send him to prison -- for whatever, because Delay hurt their politics. So he did.
They're still crying about redistricting, and suing hell out of the State every chance they get. The Supreme Court last spring told them to knock it off, but they went right back to court -- and delayed Texas's primary until the campaign for the nomination was over.
Let 'em cry, they deserve it now. Screw 'em.
Almost no “ObamaCare” policies were in effect in 2010.
The main reason for the GOP's success in 2010 was a dramatic decline in Black and Hispanic voter turnout.
In New Mexico's 2010 governor race, for instance, 61% of Hispanics voted AGAINST the female Hispanic GOP candidate, who won the election.
If that election had been held in 2008 or 2012, the huge Hispanic turnout would have given that election to the Democrat candidate.
What, Who Cares?
</Someone probably wishes this
picture was never posted.
But it fits almost everywhere lately.>
“First, remind voters at every turn that we have a long-term entitlement spending crisis and that the Obama administration has contributed to that crisis primarily by creating an entitlement benefit for the nonelderly that is not paid for in any realistic way.”
WARNING - GOP HACK OVERSIGHT. Funny how this Townhall.com bootlicker “forgot” to mention mention Medicare Part - the GOP created entitlement that matches the above description perfectly.
In 2014? Not just lose a few seats like 1998 but lose control? In a midterm of the President of another party?
That would be unprecedented.
Even suggesting it requires that Obama be VERY popular in November of 2014. More popular that I think it’s possible for him to be even if things go well for him.
And mind you Clinton was VERY popular in 1998 and the democrats only won 5 seats net.