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Why an American ‘manufacturing renaissance’ wouldn’t create many manufacturing jobs
American Enterprise Institute ^ | February 1, 2013 | James Pethokoukis

Posted on 02/04/2013 2:28:44 PM PST by neverdem

Get ready to hear a lot more about technological unemployment. The theory holds that automation, especially of the digital variety, is happening more quickly than entrepreneurs and human capital can adjust. And it’s why, says Andrew McAfee, co-author of Race Against the Machines, a boom in US manufacturing wouldn’t bring a boom in job creation:

– Manufacturing employment has been on a steady downward trend in the U.S. since 1980 (it increased some after the end of the Great Recession, but this boost appears to be leveling out).

– Manufacturing jobs have also been trending downward in Japan and Germany since at least 1990 and, as I wrote earlier, in China since 1996.

– Manufacturing employment decline is a global phenomenon. As a Bloomberg story summarized: “Some 22 million manufacturing jobs were lost globally between 1995 and 2002 as industrial output soared 30 percent. … It seems that devilish productivity is wreaking havoc with jobs both at home and abroad.”

Nor does McAfree buy the theory that even if manufacturing employment declines because of automation, the drop will be offset elsewhere in the economy. If goods can be produced more cheaply, it will free up purchasing power for other things, right?

Fair enough, but what if those other companies are also automating? One of the most striking phenomena of recent years is the encroachment of automation into tasks, skills and abilities that used to belong to people alone. As we document in Race Against the Machine, this includes driving cars, responding accurately to natural language questions, understanding and producing human speech, writing prose, reviewing documents and many others. Some combination of these will be valuable in every industry.

Previous waves of automation, like the mechanization of agriculture and the advent of electric power to factories, have not resulted in large-scale unemployment or impoverishment of the average worker. But the historical pattern isn’t giving me a lot of comfort these days, simply because we’ve never before seen automation encroach so broadly and deeply, while also improving so quickly at the same time.



TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Editorial
KEYWORDS: innovation; manufacturing; technology; unemployment
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1 posted on 02/04/2013 2:28:54 PM PST by neverdem
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To: neverdem

Liberal arguments? Manufacturing itself does operate in cycles and cannot trend downward infinitely unless the entire world suddenly turns Luddite. Even automated manufacturing requires a vibrant repair and maintenance industry; factory machines are not self-repairing organisms that can be back to good working order after a night of sleep. (Never mind the fact that automation was the beginning of the Industrial Revolution to begin with.)

What seems to be ignored here is the importance of manufacturing to national security, never mind the unfriendliness of liberals to manufacturing since the end of WWII what with piling on the regulations and taxation (which kills new start-up businesses within a year for the most part in the USA).


2 posted on 02/04/2013 2:36:37 PM PST by Olog-hai
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To: Olog-hai

Problem is, if you service (repair or maintain) a machine, your job is not counted as a “manufacturing job,” unless by odd chance you actually work for the manufacturer itself.


3 posted on 02/04/2013 2:42:33 PM PST by 1rudeboy
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To: neverdem
In a multipronged attack on employment Mechanization, Automation, Computerization, Robotics and Improved Work Methods promise to make every type of employment except OWNERSHIP unprofitable.

We can act now to make America into the first 100% ownership driven society.

Every man a CEO, a Board Room in every garage, the New Contract with America, a Fair Contract for Americans, ....... a gazillion other slogans.

When there's only one job left, it need not be the janitor who turns out the lights ~ it can be the Chairman Of The Board!

4 posted on 02/04/2013 2:45:02 PM PST by muawiyah
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To: Olog-hai
What seems to be ignored here is the importance of manufacturing to national security,

In 08 when he was running for president, Duncan Hunter detailed several instances where our "allies" had shown their opposition to the Iraq war by halting production of vital pieces of military hardware and we had to scramble to find new producers.

He also pointed to a DOD report that said we couldn't possibly track where all of the parts for military hardware were coming from and it made it nearly impossible to guarantee security of top secret items.

The simple fact is that manufacturing is a security issue. A nation that manufactures what it needs can't be held hostage by foreign interests.
5 posted on 02/04/2013 2:49:13 PM PST by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: neverdem

Thank you for posting this. The future is not going to be won by the country with the cheapest labor, or the country which has the most factories. It also isn’t going to be won by the country with the best service-oriented economy. It will be won by the country which most readily adapts culturally and economically (in terms of the nature of currency, primarily) to the very deep changes occurring in pretty much every aspect of life.

We are heading to a point where marginal costs of production approach zero, where a relatively miniscule amount of man-hours can provide everything that we need. This is, in general, an extremely positive development, that will occur over the next handful of decades. But getting from here to there will require massive change. These changes will not be pleasant, if history serves as any guide.

I find this question fascinating, since it requires questioning almost everything we think we know about society and economics. For example, cities teeming with people made sense when they were the hub of manufacturing. Now, they are archaic ecosystems financed by transfer payments, debt, and the white collar versions of ditch digging and filling (business services whose role is primarily for lobbying, or for adhering to the labyrinth of regulations). Over time, this will change. But not easily and not without serious problems.

And that is just one simple example. The changes over the next few decades will call into question everything from the fractional reserve system, to the purpose of education, to the role of nations themselves.

Hearing people call for the return of “manufacturing” is somewhat akin to calling for the return to a life in the trees. When the old system dies, as it is in the process of doing, it will be replaced by something fundamentally unrecognizable. The only question now involves the somewhat painful path from a to b.


6 posted on 02/04/2013 2:51:08 PM PST by jjsheridan5
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To: neverdem

Find ways to,lower the costs of jobs, and those jobs will come.


7 posted on 02/04/2013 2:51:36 PM PST by Jonty30 (What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults.)
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To: Jonty30

Manufacturing is effectively taxed like a VAT tax which hurts it a great deal.


8 posted on 02/04/2013 2:55:26 PM PST by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: Olog-hai

Did they factor the jobs in intercountry shipping and export shipping as well?

Did they factor the fact that the jobs would have an internal multiplier effect?

Or that instead of say having 10 low skilled factory workers you may have 4 high skilled technitians who need 2 babysitters and other peripheral service jobs are created to support them, etc etc...


9 posted on 02/04/2013 2:57:03 PM PST by GraceG
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To: 1rudeboy

Calvin Coolidge explains a major part of it. The growth of government can only end in a downward spiral.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5puwTrLRhmw


10 posted on 02/04/2013 3:07:25 PM PST by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: Jonty30
Find ways to,lower the costs of jobs, and those jobs will come.

Obama-Kare does the exact opposite - It is a job killer, not a job creator.

As the full costs of Obama-Kare fall on employers they will be forced to seek ways to reduce the number of employees for which they must provide a medical plan.

Some of the most obvious things they will do:

- Small companies will freeze employment below the minimum requiring health plan participation

- Hold employee hours below the minimum by using part time employees

- Pay overtime instead of keeping higher numbers of employees

- Automate

- Subcontract

- Outsource

- Move factories out of the USA

The Labor Force Participation Rate will continue to drop.
The media will call it "Unexpected".


11 posted on 02/04/2013 3:32:08 PM PST by Iron Munro (I Miss America, don't you?)
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To: Iron Munro

It simply COSTS to much to manufacture in this country!

If we do NOT re-impose tariffs; then every bit of our ‘money’ will bleed out to the world as surely as water runs down hill.


12 posted on 02/04/2013 3:46:57 PM PST by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: neverdem

What we need is higher labor costs and more immigration.


13 posted on 02/04/2013 3:48:26 PM PST by Vince Ferrer
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To: muawiyah

Most jobs in manufacturing, as it was understood for most of the last century, were dull, repetitive time-and-motion actions, that required little mental involvement, besides not getting yourself mangled in the machinery. Those jobs are properly taken over by robotic substitutes, and the individuals formerly employed at this kind of labor are free to learn a whole new skill set.

It is presumed that to learn this skill set, the individual has basic comprehension of language and some analytical capability when confronted with a new task like programming the computers that operate the robotic machinery, or putting into operation the sometimes very complicated business of delivering the product to its intended user.

And this is just what seems to put a burr under the saddle of most of the union bosses. Once people get smart enough to learn how to do these new kinds of jobs, they have much less need of any kind of union representation, and in a most excellent show of preservation of self-interest, they stay away from organized labor in droves.


14 posted on 02/04/2013 3:57:57 PM PST by alloysteel (If conspiracy does not exist everywhere, it exists nowhere.)
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To: neverdem
The theory holds that automation, especially of the digital variety, is happening more quickly than entrepreneurs and human capital can adjust.

Alarmist cranks have been preaching this baloney since the 1700's.

They always ignore that someone will have to design and build the automation. And the raw materials for that automation will have to be dug out of the ground by someone. And the automation that reduces the number of jobs needed to dig the raw materials out of the ground will have to be designed by someone else and built by yet someone else again.

And so on.

We're seeing job losses now because the government is making it too expensive to hire. Investment in automation always cuts jobs where the automation is applied. That's its purpose. But in the 400 years since the Industrial Revolution began, more people have always found better work.

It's somewhat counter-intuitive, but you might call it the "growing pie" effect.

It worked very well till Obama was elected. But that's a different story.

15 posted on 02/04/2013 4:22:00 PM PST by BfloGuy (Money, like chocolate on a hot oven, was melting in the pockets of the people.)
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To: Elsie
Once you spend money, it is no longer yours. If someone else spends their money, it was never yours in the first place.

Only the government spends money "on your behalf."

16 posted on 02/04/2013 4:33:31 PM PST by 1rudeboy
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To: neverdem

What we need is what we’re getting. It won’t be easy, but the most ingenuous will survive these economic and other corrections, rebuild and produce.


17 posted on 02/04/2013 4:58:28 PM PST by familyop (We Baby Boomers are croaking in an avalanche of rotten politics smelled around the planet.)
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To: 1rudeboy

Worry not—our Chinese Masters will plenty of work for all of us! They know how to put lots of folks to work doing manual labor. Look to see electric fences on the Canadian Border to keep Americans from coming over. Maybe the same on the Mexican Border to keep us out! All will work 10 hour days for a handful of rice—no unions, and a noose for any who shirk. They will have revolutionary songs to sing and Free Matching Uniforms! The only good thing: The Liberals will be the first to go to the camps.


18 posted on 02/04/2013 5:10:49 PM PST by Forward the Light Brigade (Into the Jaws of H*ll)
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To: 1rudeboy

Yup!


19 posted on 02/04/2013 9:34:57 PM PST by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: Elsie

So what did you mean by “our money?”


20 posted on 02/05/2013 5:03:04 AM PST by 1rudeboy
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To: Olog-hai

CNC and CAD have changed the world. They produce products better and faster. The labor input per unit is less. The quality and finish is superior.

The once skilled machinists are no longer needed to the same degree. The maintenance types include highly skilled computer savvy to setup and render TLC to the various auto systems in the machine.

The operative word is number 5. Changed. the only constant in life of individuals or nations is change. The way to deal with change is to embrace it and move forward. That is not to say all change is good, but it must be delt with in one way or another. Obama et al are cancerous change and must be surgically removed


21 posted on 02/05/2013 5:13:47 AM PST by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 .....The fairest Deduction to be reduced is the Standard Deduction)
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To: GraceG
If someone isn't greasing the bearings, someone will be replacing them. If someone is replacing them, someone will make sure the right number of bearings of the right type are in stock. Someone will deliver them. Someone will package them. Someone will make them, if only another machine operator--whose machines will need to be maintained as well.

No job is an island.

That someone is employed will mean other people will have jobs. We have seen how someone becoming unemployed leads to the demise of other jobs, the reverse is true, with a sole exception: Government and the administration of the Great Government Teat. Between that and (often unnecessary) regulation of the productive, government has become a parasitic growth sector, even as the host withers.

22 posted on 02/05/2013 6:38:02 AM PST by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing)
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To: neverdem

I disagree.

Ever more strongly. America needs a strong, growing and innovative manufacturing base.

We need laws encouraging building things here. And we need to innovate. Now.

We have offshored everything for almost an entire generation. Everything under the sun has been offshored.

I say bring them all back.

Now. All of them.


23 posted on 02/05/2013 6:45:25 AM PST by Cringing Negativism Network
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To: 1rudeboy

The money we use to buy things from overseas.

A nation will almost ALWAYS buy the product that is cheaper; no matter where it was made or grown.

Then that money will circulate thru the other nation’s economy, enriching it’s folks; instead of ours.

It will, however, at some point, return home; but, if it was gone a long time, inflation will have taken it’s toll, and it will be worth less in value.


24 posted on 02/05/2013 11:04:06 AM PST by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: Elsie

So you propose that we take “our” money that is “bleeding” overseas, and give a portion of it to our government instead, and less of it to domestic producers. Prosperity is right around the corner. /s


25 posted on 02/05/2013 11:11:45 AM PST by 1rudeboy
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To: 1rudeboy
So you propose...

I did not 'propose' anything.

I merely stated what occurs.

There is no need to build strawmen in this thread.

26 posted on 02/05/2013 1:32:17 PM PST by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: Jonty30
Find ways to,lower the costs of jobs, and those jobs will come.

Good luck with this!

We can, however, artificailly raise the cost to buy the products that has created the LOSS of these jobs in this country: and that is by tariffs.

27 posted on 02/05/2013 1:34:36 PM PST by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: Elsie

How does it cost more to manufacture in the USA if the operation is robotic? Do our robots plan on going on strike? LOL.


28 posted on 02/05/2013 1:43:03 PM PST by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: bert
CNC and CAD have changed the world.again...

When men (and women) managed to have a little bit of time left over from merely surviving, and was able to use that time in different ways, civilization became possible.

It was our TOOLS that raised us from the dirt of the farm and the blood of the hunt; to art and music and leisure.

CNC and CAD are merely the latest tools to come along.

Thousands poured off of the farms when each new tool from John Deere lessened the need for so many farm workers.

They went into the cities to perform different tasks. (a LOT of those 'farmers' went to work for Deere!)

When automatic switching was invented by Bell; thousands of telephone 'operators' were thrown out of work, but they found other jobs.

29 posted on 02/05/2013 1:43:25 PM PST by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: BfloGuy

I don’t care if a factory is automated or not AS LONG AS THE FACTORY IS IN THE USA.


30 posted on 02/05/2013 1:46:29 PM PST by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: central_va
How does it cost more to manufacture in the USA if the operation is robotic?

More than it does in Japan; where it is robotic.

More than it does in Mexico; where it is robotic.

More than it does in Ireland; where it is robotic.

More than it does in Malaysia; where it is robotic.

31 posted on 02/05/2013 1:46:39 PM PST by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: Elsie

Proof? Statistics? Show me that the same robot in the USA is more than one in China?


32 posted on 02/05/2013 1:58:43 PM PST by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: Elsie
There is no need to build strawmen in this thread.

No need to run away from your argument, either. Whose money is this, that you refer to as "ours?"

33 posted on 02/05/2013 2:11:23 PM PST by 1rudeboy
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To: Elsie
We can, however, artificially raise the cost to buy the products that has created the LOSS of these jobs in this country: and that is by tariffs.

Raise taxes on ourselves to protect ourselves. Please contact whitehouse.gov.

34 posted on 02/05/2013 2:15:10 PM PST by 1rudeboy
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To: neverdem
What about the jobs to transport the raw materials to the manufacturing plant?

What about the jobs to transport the finished goods from the manufacturing plant to the retail outlets?

What about the jobs to mainain the manufacturing equipment?

What about the lubricants and other materials used in the manufacturing process, and the jobs to manufacture and transport those?

What about the jobs to provide the power to run the manufacturing plants?

-PJ

35 posted on 02/05/2013 2:21:20 PM PST by Political Junkie Too (If you are the Posterity of We the People, then you are a Natural Born Citizen.)
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To: central_va
Proof? Statistics?

Sigh...

the 'proof' is in the pudding.

36 posted on 02/05/2013 3:06:37 PM PST by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: 1rudeboy
Whose money is this, that you refer to as "ours?"

The assessed value of the United States of America minus the National debt.

37 posted on 02/05/2013 3:07:33 PM PST by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: 1rudeboy
No need to run away from your argument, either.

I'm not arguing anything.

38 posted on 02/05/2013 3:07:58 PM PST by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: 1rudeboy
Raise taxes on ourselves to protect ourselves. Please contact whitehouse.gov.

O knows this already.

39 posted on 02/05/2013 3:09:02 PM PST by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: Political Junkie Too

SHHHssshhhhhh...

You are NOT supposed to back up and look at the whole picture.


40 posted on 02/05/2013 3:10:02 PM PST by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: Elsie
I'm not arguing anything.

Except for the fact that you used the term, "our money." Is my money yours?

41 posted on 02/05/2013 3:14:21 PM PST by 1rudeboy
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To: Elsie

Makes you mad anything is still made in the USA. How antiquated and stupid.


42 posted on 02/05/2013 3:30:07 PM PST by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: 1rudeboy

You Chinese handlers want you to take it up a notch, you seem a little lethargic this evening.


43 posted on 02/05/2013 3:32:31 PM PST by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: Iron Munro

I’m not sure you’re right, if companies really are allowed to make most employees “29ers” and avoid Obamacare.
That seems like a way for the fedgov to boost the employment stats.


44 posted on 02/05/2013 3:36:13 PM PST by nascarnation (Baraq's economic policy: trickle up poverty)
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To: central_va

Government agencies (IRS, EPA, OSHA, ...) can price robotic ‘workers’ out of the country as successfully as they did human workers.


45 posted on 02/05/2013 3:37:02 PM PST by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat Party!)
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To: central_va

My view is that the cost isn’t the robot itself, but the cost of all the structure and regulation heaped on the enterprise by the local, state, and federal govts.

There was a good series of stories done (surprisingly) by the Gannett generipaper here in Indianapolis about a guy who worked at a donut bakery, and quit to start his own donut bakery.

The first thing that happened was when the building he rented for himself and his three (able bodied) workers was visited by the govt inspectors. There was no handicap access to the place, including the bathroom. Immediate $15,000 cost to upgrade.

Those are the kind of things that inflate business costs.


46 posted on 02/05/2013 3:44:46 PM PST by nascarnation (Baraq's economic policy: trickle up poverty)
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To: central_va

Shove it, don’t you have a CSA thread somewhere to promote slavery? (Your motto: “our slavery is better than theirs”).


47 posted on 02/05/2013 3:53:35 PM PST by 1rudeboy
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To: central_va
I don’t care if a factory is automated or not AS LONG AS THE FACTORY IS IN THE USA.

If it isn't automated, IT WON'T BE IN THE USA.

Sheesh, think this stuff through.

48 posted on 02/05/2013 3:57:19 PM PST by BfloGuy (Money, like chocolate on a hot oven, was melting in the pockets of the people.)
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To: 1rudeboy
Shove it, don’t you have a CSA thread somewhere to promote slavery? (Your motto: “our slavery is better than theirs”).

Your check from the Chicoms clear?

49 posted on 02/05/2013 3:58:08 PM PST by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: nascarnation

Irritating that ANYTHING is still made in the f-ed up USA. Makes you made doesn’t it?


50 posted on 02/05/2013 3:59:50 PM PST by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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