Posted on 02/04/2013 2:28:44 PM PST by neverdem
Get ready to hear a lot more about technological unemployment. The theory holds that automation, especially of the digital variety, is happening more quickly than entrepreneurs and human capital can adjust. And it’s why, says Andrew McAfee, co-author of Race Against the Machines, a boom in US manufacturing wouldn’t bring a boom in job creation:
– Manufacturing employment has been on a steady downward trend in the U.S. since 1980 (it increased some after the end of the Great Recession, but this boost appears to be leveling out).
– Manufacturing jobs have also been trending downward in Japan and Germany since at least 1990 and, as I wrote earlier, in China since 1996.
– Manufacturing employment decline is a global phenomenon. As a Bloomberg story summarized: “Some 22 million manufacturing jobs were lost globally between 1995 and 2002 as industrial output soared 30 percent. … It seems that devilish productivity is wreaking havoc with jobs both at home and abroad.”
Nor does McAfree buy the theory that even if manufacturing employment declines because of automation, the drop will be offset elsewhere in the economy. If goods can be produced more cheaply, it will free up purchasing power for other things, right?
Fair enough, but what if those other companies are also automating? One of the most striking phenomena of recent years is the encroachment of automation into tasks, skills and abilities that used to belong to people alone. As we document in Race Against the Machine, this includes driving cars, responding accurately to natural language questions, understanding and producing human speech, writing prose, reviewing documents and many others. Some combination of these will be valuable in every industry.
Previous waves of automation, like the mechanization of agriculture and the advent of electric power to factories, have not resulted in large-scale unemployment or impoverishment of the average worker. But the historical pattern isn’t giving me a lot of comfort these days, simply because we’ve never before seen automation encroach so broadly and deeply, while also improving so quickly at the same time.
CNC and CAD have changed the world. They produce products better and faster. The labor input per unit is less. The quality and finish is superior.
The once skilled machinists are no longer needed to the same degree. The maintenance types include highly skilled computer savvy to setup and render TLC to the various auto systems in the machine.
The operative word is number 5. Changed. the only constant in life of individuals or nations is change. The way to deal with change is to embrace it and move forward. That is not to say all change is good, but it must be delt with in one way or another. Obama et al are cancerous change and must be surgically removed
No job is an island.
That someone is employed will mean other people will have jobs. We have seen how someone becoming unemployed leads to the demise of other jobs, the reverse is true, with a sole exception: Government and the administration of the Great Government Teat. Between that and (often unnecessary) regulation of the productive, government has become a parasitic growth sector, even as the host withers.
I disagree.
Ever more strongly. America needs a strong, growing and innovative manufacturing base.
We need laws encouraging building things here. And we need to innovate. Now.
We have offshored everything for almost an entire generation. Everything under the sun has been offshored.
I say bring them all back.
Now. All of them.
The money we use to buy things from overseas.
A nation will almost ALWAYS buy the product that is cheaper; no matter where it was made or grown.
Then that money will circulate thru the other nation’s economy, enriching it’s folks; instead of ours.
It will, however, at some point, return home; but, if it was gone a long time, inflation will have taken it’s toll, and it will be worth less in value.
So you propose that we take “our” money that is “bleeding” overseas, and give a portion of it to our government instead, and less of it to domestic producers. Prosperity is right around the corner. /s
I did not 'propose' anything.
I merely stated what occurs.
There is no need to build strawmen in this thread.
Good luck with this!
We can, however, artificailly raise the cost to buy the products that has created the LOSS of these jobs in this country: and that is by tariffs.
How does it cost more to manufacture in the USA if the operation is robotic? Do our robots plan on going on strike? LOL.
When men (and women) managed to have a little bit of time left over from merely surviving, and was able to use that time in different ways, civilization became possible.
It was our TOOLS that raised us from the dirt of the farm and the blood of the hunt; to art and music and leisure.
CNC and CAD are merely the latest tools to come along.
Thousands poured off of the farms when each new tool from John Deere lessened the need for so many farm workers.
They went into the cities to perform different tasks. (a LOT of those 'farmers' went to work for Deere!)
When automatic switching was invented by Bell; thousands of telephone 'operators' were thrown out of work, but they found other jobs.
I don’t care if a factory is automated or not AS LONG AS THE FACTORY IS IN THE USA.
More than it does in Japan; where it is robotic.
More than it does in Mexico; where it is robotic.
More than it does in Ireland; where it is robotic.
More than it does in Malaysia; where it is robotic.
Proof? Statistics? Show me that the same robot in the USA is more than one in China?
No need to run away from your argument, either. Whose money is this, that you refer to as "ours?"
Raise taxes on ourselves to protect ourselves. Please contact whitehouse.gov.
What about the jobs to transport the finished goods from the manufacturing plant to the retail outlets?
What about the jobs to mainain the manufacturing equipment?
What about the lubricants and other materials used in the manufacturing process, and the jobs to manufacture and transport those?
What about the jobs to provide the power to run the manufacturing plants?
-PJ
Sigh...
the 'proof' is in the pudding.
The assessed value of the United States of America minus the National debt.
I'm not arguing anything.
O knows this already.
SHHHssshhhhhh...
You are NOT supposed to back up and look at the whole picture.
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