Skip to comments.Initial Claims Miss For Second Week In A Row As Nonfarm Productivity Tumbles Most Since 2008
Posted on 02/07/2013 6:00:27 AM PST by Perdogg
As is the case every Thursday, the BLS reported its weekly initial claims which unlike two weeks ago did not estimate the initial unemployment claims for America's most populous state when the number plunged, and has now missed expectations for two weeks in a row, printing at 366K, on expectations of a 360K number, while last week's 368K was as usual revised upward to 371K. As a result, the Mainspin Media already has its headline: Initial Claims decline by 5,000. Such is life under the US Department of Truth, even as unadjusted initial claims spiked by 16.7K to 386K in the week ended February 2. In other news, people on Extended Unemployment Comp plunged by 288K after soaring in the week prior, and making some wonder just what is going on with the EUC 2008 data series for it to get such massive weekly shifts each week.
But perhaps, more importantly, the BLS also reported Q4 unit labor costs and nonfarm productivity and as a result of the previously reported adjustments to worker data and negative GDP print, it was widely expected that productivity would drop. It did, but it did so far more than most expected, plunging by a whopping 2%, which "reflects increases of 0.1 percent in output and 2.2 percent in hours worked. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates." The offset: unit labor cost which soared by 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2012, the combined effect of the 2.0 percent decrease in productivity and a 2.4 percent increase in hourly compensation. Unit labor costs rose 1.9 percent over the last four quarters.
Always expect to see the unexpected when it comes to Obama.
All economic numbers will come in unexpectedly bad until Obama leaves office.
Dang, it’s early to be drinking....
What??? Higher taxes, regulations and healthcare concerns add costs and decrease productivity? Who would have thought that???
Certainly not anyone who has learned to trust the “Messiah”.
They simply refuse to believe any bad news about their god anyway.
Democrat GOOD, Republican BAD.
There is nothing else more important to a Hussein Head.
millions don;t care so long as they get their kids fed at school, teir welfare, their EBT, their handouts.
We live in a country where people think voting for a non white guy is cool or because he;s a brother, they think the media is giving facts and think obama is some sort of a frigging messiah
I’m sure everyone is aware, but I’ll remind you.
YOU are the ones going to be blamed when the S HTF and the economy crashes.
Which of this Dem/Fascist regime’s statistics are actually NOT lies?
Better to assume that every word out of Obaba’s/Dem’s mouth is a lie until proven otherwise.
Unemployment numbers fake, inflation numbers fake, anything not a lie out of these Dems?
ain;t that the truth
economy is crisis
debt out of cpontrol
middle east and north Africa is a mess
Libya has been a massive cover up, hell I can hear Panetta right now saying they could nto help those Americans as there was not much time.
that is B/S the attacks took 7 hours and we had special ofrces at the airport in Libya but on hold, hell not one person has said where obama was during the attacks and did he go to sleep as the attacks were on going
The four-week moving average (weekly numbers can be volatile) decline to 350,500 is at its lowest since March 2008.
to the ignorant and dumb it;s always the conservatives fault because the left wing media, do we even call them media now?
A huge cover up over Libya and I can hear pro turd feces anal sex homo agenda, women in combat Panetta lying through his teeth, never their fault always someone else fault
Christmas shopping season is over and most are prepping for the reality of obamacare and four more years of obamanomics. I’m surprised things are as good as they are.
Hiring is up, but output growth grinds to a halt as productivity declines in the fourth quarter.
- Nonfarm business sector labor productivity declined at a 2.0% annual rate in the fourth quarter, the largest decrease since the first quarter of 2011.
- Growth in employee hours picked up again as the labor market gained steam.
- Nonfarm output grew by just 0.1% annualized in the fourth quarter.
- Year over year, productivity growth was 0.6%, the slowest pace in four quarters.
- Unit labor costs rose by an annualized 4.5% after two quarters of declines.
As expected, nonfarm labor productivity declined by 2.0% in the fourth quarter. Nonfarm business output grew by just 0.1% annualized, the worst showing in nearly two years, even as employee hours were up 2.2% over the previous quarter. Year on year, productivity growth was just 0.6%, the slowest pace of 2012. For 2012 overall, productivity growth was 1.0%, compared with 0.7% in 2011 and 3.1% in 2010.
After two quarters in which hiring lagged behind output growth, the tables turned in the fourth quarter. Despite all the fears over the fiscal cliff, employers added an average of 201,000 jobs per month, compared with 152,000 in the third quarter. Real GDP contracted, however, in part because of massive but temporary corrections in defense spending and inventories.
Coming out of the recession, companies slashed payrolls and worked their existing employees to the bonethis would explain the strong productivity figures we saw in 2009 (3.0%) and 2010 (3.1%). But firms have squeezed about as much as they can out of their workforces and have resorted to hiring more to raise output. Thus, productivity growth has been relatively muted over the past two years.
With fiscal concerns lingering and foreign growth issues persisting, we expect both output and hiring to trend up modestly. The expiry of the payroll tax cut and other headwinds have left further acceleration in employment growth over the next few months unlikely. But the underlying fundamentals in the economy are trending upward, and employment growth in 2013 should at least match that in 2012.
We expect a first-quarter rebound in output growth and gradual improvement thereafter. The result: productivity should grow around 0.5% in 2013 and drift up slowly, but it will be years before productivity returns to its long-term trend rate of 2%.
It would be best if everyone who knows the truth about the coming economic reality would up their FARM productivity.
IE, better get to growing something in the backyard,
because it’s all you’re going to have.
Please store something. It's better to have something and not need it than it is to have nothing and desperately need it later.
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