Posted on 02/08/2013 11:59:35 AM PST by blam
Two Chilling Developments Suggest Asia May Be One Step Away From War
Robert Johnson
February 8, 2013, 9:38 AM
China and Japan, along with North and South Korean troops at the DMZ, appear one step away from armed combat and tensions don't look likely to ease any time soon.
New developments within both regions illustrate how close to open combat the four countries are, and how quickly one incident could expand to war among very powerful nations.
Tokyo reported two January events where Chinese naval vessels targeted its East China Sea forces with fire-control radar. This specific type of radar is used almost exclusively to assist guided weapons systems in their flight toward a target. It's an unmistakable action that can be the first step to open combat, and was taken seriously enough by the Japanese captain to prompt a combat alert aboard his vessel.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to the allegations by saying it hadn't heard about the engagements until news of the events appeared on international news. It has since said that the event didn't happen and is a total Japanese fabrication. Whether it's true or not China is using Japan's claim to prove Tokyo is preparing for war.
If Chinese ships did engage their fire-control radar, it may be in Beijing's interest to deny it because either it approved the maneuver, or the ship's captains acted independently. Both scenarios offer a long list of concerns that would be easiest for China to address if avoided entirely.
Japan continues pressing the issue and yesterday announced that the use of fire-control radar against its ships is an "act of force" and a direct UN charter violation."
U.S. Secretary of Defense Panetta is pleading for caution and says, "the situation could ultimately get out of hand."
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
I am sure Kerry can fix this, and maybe get another medal or two out of it.
What "stuff"? Food? Yes, the stores are full of Chinese garlic and mushrooms. I seek out North American garlic and there is a mushroom farm 30 miles from me. Energy? Nope, not a watt, not a barrel.
So, what kind of "stuff" do we get from them? Weapons, nope, not yet. Cheap consumer electronics and other consumer goods. Do you mean to tell me we can't make that "stuff" here in North America?
The only "stuff" they have a monopoly on, and would hurt us is "rare earths". The government should be stockpiling rare earths right now, forget the SPI. Also, there is a mine in California that is used to produce rare earths. The deposits are still in the ground.
You can't tell me the country that built and deployed an atomic bomb FROM SCRATCH in 3 1/2 years couldn't reopen that mine and produce the required rare earth minerals in 30 days. The mine closed because of "environmental concerns". Faced with an existential threat, I think the US could bury the envirowackos in the tailing pit and get production going in 30 days.
Nothing personal, I just don't think they make anything we can't do without or make ourselves in jig time.
“um.. war is usually good for the markets.”
I didn’t state otherwise.
A correction simply gets the ‘fluff’ out of the market; the excesses so to speak, before pushing higher once again.
I indicated the market was severly overbought and overdue for a correction, not poised for a bear market - big difference.
Perhaps Obama could bring all sides together in the White House for a beer (or Saki).
I’d swap ten of a certin ilk of Americans for one Asian any day.
Gobs of our military hardware has been sent to the Pacific Rim near China. Why waste the fuel? Git ‘em, boys!
Be my guest. Go long Nikkei futures when the Tokyo air raid sirens sound. . I'll take the counter trade.
On the positive side, a thermonuclear war in Asia would likely bring some manufacturing jobs back to Ohio.
Even if war isn’t really good for the economy, huge fuel and maintenance spending is going on to move the good stuff around in a really heavy way now. Might as well use it.
I call this a race to the 20th century moment.
China attacks, secretly Israel provokes Iran to go to war and close the Strait, Iran complies, China has no oil to fight a war.
South Korea launches a pre-emptive strike on North Koreas C&C and nuke capabilities.
The US and Russia go to the UN and blame the Norks and the Iranians for causing war.
In the name of global peace, the Koreas are reunified under the south, Iranian secularists take over Iran, the Islamist movement is pushed back and.........
Coincidentally, according to the NY Times, that was Obamas plan all along.
How courageous.
And I'll bet that if "we" stopped hating on each other we just might win an election.
Read where N. Korea wasn’t listening to China. Set up for N Korea to hit Japan at our Marine and Navy Bases, knowing full well that we aren’t going to do anything against China?
PAC Rim bump for later......
“So, what kind of “stuff” do we get from them? Weapons, nope, not yet. Cheap consumer electronics and other consumer goods. Do you mean to tell me we can’t make that “stuff” here in North America?”
Go to any store. Look at almost everything. 90% isnt made in this hemisphere.
Sure, we CAN make this stuff, but it wont be for months AT BEST. The economy isnt going to tread water while factories are set up to accommodate all of these items.
I think you're absolutely right. War there might actually be good for our economy. Get us working again. We certainly have an edge in medical goods and supplies; that would be the first thing we would sell to them both during and after a war. (Obama would probably just give it away for free.) The rest that we would have gotten there, we can produce ourselves here.
I have noticed that countries that have NOT been friendly to us in the past are being treated as if they were long-time allies; and, long-time allies are being treated badly.
BO has a very different world view than America has had in the past. I suppose this is part and parcel of his "transformation" of America.
Chinese production has a dominant supplier position in basically two things: cheap household goods and toys, and consumer electronics.
For the former, the gear-up time for domestic and Mexican replacement production is maybe four weeks longer than the present inventory. Prices will probably have to go up about 30% for that stuff, to ration out the remaining Chinese inventory and then to finance local costs (higher labor and environmental compliance costs, less reduced shipping expense). Not the end of the world.
For the latter, it’ll be more of a challenge. The supply chain for electronics in the US is limited to defense and aerospace applications which legally can’t be off-shored, but it’s a very different set of scaling and cost structures. The capital investments to be able to manufacture 55” LCD panel TVs soup to nuts are mammoth, and no one will make those investments without a long-term earn-out protection. My guess is that we’ll need a 5- or even 10-year tariff law before Dell or Apple will put the billions into the ground needed to scale up for full domestic production. Figure on a doubling or tripling of cost as the remaining inventory is bid up (iPads at $2,000), and at least a 50% premium thereafter.
You mean like the ones he threw away in public some years ago! People have short memories.
He could wear them to impress the natives on his next big foreign trip.
That really did make me laugh out loud. Rich.
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