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To: Former Proud Canadian

Chinese production has a dominant supplier position in basically two things: cheap household goods and toys, and consumer electronics.

For the former, the gear-up time for domestic and Mexican replacement production is maybe four weeks longer than the present inventory. Prices will probably have to go up about 30% for that stuff, to ration out the remaining Chinese inventory and then to finance local costs (higher labor and environmental compliance costs, less reduced shipping expense). Not the end of the world.

For the latter, it’ll be more of a challenge. The supply chain for electronics in the US is limited to defense and aerospace applications which legally can’t be off-shored, but it’s a very different set of scaling and cost structures. The capital investments to be able to manufacture 55” LCD panel TVs soup to nuts are mammoth, and no one will make those investments without a long-term earn-out protection. My guess is that we’ll need a 5- or even 10-year tariff law before Dell or Apple will put the billions into the ground needed to scale up for full domestic production. Figure on a doubling or tripling of cost as the remaining inventory is bid up (iPads at $2,000), and at least a 50% premium thereafter.


37 posted on 02/08/2013 3:00:44 PM PST by only1percent
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To: only1percent
I'll accept your analysis. In a wartime situation, increased costs and shortages are no big deal. Think of the rationing and shortages that occurred in WW II.

There are two vital inputs that a 21st century industrial society cannot do without. Food and energy. North America is absolutely awash in both. By rights the US and Canada should become the number 1 and 2 oil exporting nations on earth. Let business build the pipelines and the ports and the refineries. Let people drill and produce the energy that lies at our feet. Given enough food and energy, and we have enough of both, North America can weather any storm, and win any war.

We should not fear the Chinese. They should fear us.

45 posted on 02/08/2013 5:14:08 PM PST by Former Proud Canadian (Obamanomics-We don't need your stinking tar sands oil, we'll just grow algae.)
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To: only1percent

Apple already is expanding production outside China. Brazil is a major production site. Goal seems full independence from any particular country.


56 posted on 02/09/2013 4:05:05 AM PST by ctdonath2 (3% of the population perpetrates >50% of homicides...but gun control advocates blame metal boxes.)
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