Skip to comments.Is China Mobilizing For A War With Japan?
Posted on 02/10/2013 5:06:16 AM PST by Former Proud Canadian
We don't know if it merely a coincidence that a story has emerged discussing a Chinese mobilization in response to the ongoing territorial feud with Japan over the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands (and the proximal massive gas field) the very week that China celebrates its new year (and days after news that a Chinese warship was very close to firing on a Japanese destroyer). We don't know how much of the story is based in reality, and how much may be propaganda or furthering someone's agenda. What we do know is that the source of the story: offshore-based, Falun Gong-affiliated NTDTV has historically been a credible source of information that the China communist party desperately tries to censor, such as breaking the news of the SARS epidemic in 2003 some three weeks before China publicly admitted it. Its motto is "to bring truthful and uncensored information into and out of China." If that is indeed the case, and its story of major troop movements and mobilization of various types of military vehicles and artillery into the Fujian and Zhejian provinces, bordering the East China Sea and closest to the Diaoyu islands, is accurate, then hostilities between China and Japan may be about to take a major turn for the worse.
(Excerpt) Read more at zerohedge.com ...
It’s probably getting harder for China to lie about the health of its economy, so they need a distraction.
China’s been mobilizing for war for fifty years, and so far it’s been (mostly) bluster.
They’re not going to war with Japan, where the spirit of bushido lies just under the surface.
“Can the Dragon swim?”
Where the hell is Lurch?
In the modern age, waging war is more than just military strikes. There are profound political concerns as well.
When Japan attacked Hawaii all those years ago, the optimists in her military thought that the USA, seeing the profound loses, would bow out and leave them the field.
So how do the Chinese not make the same mistake? Perhaps they can sink all the Japanese warships there and land troops on the islands? Then what? Wait for retaliation?
And if the Japaneses strike back? Will the Chinese have to sink ALL of Japan's vessels? In Japanese harbors and ports? What about American military bases in Japan that are shared with Japanese Self Defense Forces? What about international vessels? How does China stop Japan's will to fight? Starve her? Stop all commerce? What if Japanese submarines start targeting Chinese commercial trade?
And the UN? Forty-six years ago a gallant Israeli army seized the West Bank,Gaza and the Golan Heights, but still today, the POLITICAL fight continues to dispute that.
How can China ensure a quick, surgical strike that will give them possession of these islands without leading to larger war. The bottom line is that they cannot. So I do not think they are ready to face such uncertainty.
If I was Japan, I would talk about such things as cutting off Chinese trade, strikes on harbors, and using the US as a giant shield. I would do whatever it takes NOW to dispel any certainty the Chinese may develop out of a particular course of action.
Given our presidents clearly stated desire to surrender the world to terrorists and bullies, I sincerely hope the Japanese are already in possession of nuclear weapons and reliable first and second strike capable delivery systems
The only thing that will stand in the way of the chinese totally destroying the Japanese people will be the certain guarantee of the chinese leadership and population being visited with devastation on a biblical scale.
If the Japanese aren’t armed with the atom, they certainly need to be fast tracking a Manhattan project of their own, NOW.
The only country capable of stopping them is led by a cowardly, incompetent, military hating President, with an in-transit, incompetent national security team. It is in recession, deeply in debt, not even able to afford to refuel its aircraft carriers. China holds much of its massive debt, which can either be used to blackmail the US into inaction, or to bankrupt the US government by selling off that debt quickly & cheaply.
The only possible danger for China is that a narcissistic US President might start a nuclear WWIII just to save face.
Who here thinks Obama would defend Taiwan & Japan, if necessary? I certainly don't. And, please don't bother mentioning mutual defense treaties, as Obama rarely follows the law, & only when it benefits him.
China vs Japan = the end of the “Free Trade” fiasco. The only good outcome.
The problem is it would expose our depleted military to not many choices in tactics. A land war is completely out of the question. Redeploying our Navy would expose them to potential devastating loses too. The potential for a rapid escalation to nukes is clear. Perhaps that is why Pharaoh is reducing our nuke inventory so much again. In his mind, many nukes big problem, fewer nukes less problems, and finally no nukes no problems...than he can say we are not getting involved at all. I am just glad I don't live on Taiwan....ah, the newly to be named Formosa.
The thing to always remember about China, they don’t NEED anything from any other country.
Because they don’t care if their people starve.
Never underestimate the deep Chinese desire to repudiate the last 300 years of history. They have already done this in many ways, but they lack a real military victory over a former victor. China did not won WW II, they hosted the war while the USA won it. Of all former enemies, Japan is the most suitable to provide a quick military victory ending without substantial losses or a nuclear exchange. China may believe they can defeat a Japanese fleet, take some islands, and then offer a choice between a settled peace or a massive SRBMS attack.
What would we do? Likely nothing. What would Japan do? They are a geriatric, stagnant country. The Chinese may be willing to toss those dice.
Stand by for an Indo-Japanese alliance. China might be left getting all of their oil from Russia. The Chinese don’t have the navy to force open those LOCs.
This is about China and their hegemony over the entire Pacific rim. Taiwan is the jewel in that crown, but in order to take that jewel, they need to prove by taking control of Japan with US compliance, that they will meet no real resistance.
So, first they establish that the US, because of our debts to China, will do nothing to protect Japan.
Then, they amass their military along the already fortified coast facing Taiwan and simply state that Taiwan is now theirs. We stand down. The other regions that have resisted Chinese aggression, such as South Korea, similarly fall under their rule, if not directly, under the rule of fear.
This has been China’s goal for 70 years and they’ve been slowly approaching it tactfully.
America, thanks to its socialist/Keynesian policies by anti-Americans and those who oppose ‘freedom of the people’ (regardless of their civil-rights chants to the contrary), is in no position to defend Pacific democracies against this takeover.
“Theyre not going to war with Japan,...”
They may act like they want to - but are still very afraid of the Japs (and agree - Japs will ally w/ Vietnam and Philippines - with a very interested India on the sidelines).
Meanwhile, Japan has been an ally of the US at least since the defeat of the Nationalist Chinese... Look how 0 has turned on other allies and sucked up to former adversaries.
Plus, we owe the chinese lots of money. The way they see it is we're not really in a position to complain about their conduct.
Oh, and those other countries that we'd wish to see allied with Japan? South Korea, Vietnam, the Phillipines? (Thailand, Singapore, India?) They too have a sense of history that goes back before Nanking. They'll look the other way, just as we will.
I think this is a new China. They might think they need a distraction from coming economic problems. They also might be thinking this would be a great time to strike and perceive the US as weak with pending defense cuts and parked carriers.
The problem here is that Japan has become dependent on China for certain strategic materials. Unless they have been stockpiling "rare earths" they cannot produce magnets without access to Chinese supply chains because China is the sole source for these materials.
"...strikes on harbors, and using the US as a giant shield."
Several problems with these suggestions. Bomb or mine Chinese harbors? That is an instant naval war. Take a look at tanker routes for oil to Japan. I would not want to be on a supertanker headed for Japan with Chinese subs looking for me.
As for using the US as a "shield". Even though the US is treaty bound to defend Jap interests in these islands, do you think Obama is going to rally public support for a war in the northern Pacific? Do you think Obama would lift a finger to help Japan? He is already parking aircraft carriers.
The Philippines have no navy and kicked the US out of Subic Bay years ago, so there is little USN presence on the islands. China would welcome a war with the Philippines, it would be a walkover. Vietnam is too smart to start a straight up fight with China over some Japanese rocks.
There are other things to consider.
Chinese have a deep hatred for Japan, which was essentially spared answering for for the many atrocities Japanese soldiers committed in China during WWII.
Japan is relatively weak & fragile as compared to China. Japan lives or dies based on import/export. China does not. Japan is a small target, its infrastructure fairly easy to cripple. Hit a few of nuclear plants in Japan, the country is lights out & immediately a real bad place to raise kids. Not so much so for huge China. Thousands of missiles raining on Japan would cripple her high tech economy. High rise building are useless without power. Leadership in China have the luxury of ignoring loses until they are directly affected.
Too, Chinese leadership can start a war tomorrow with no one’s permission but their own, but the US doesn't necessarily work that way. If you saw my earlier reply, you know there is no guarantee that Obama would do ANYTHING militarily, & the chances are high he would want to talk about it, for years if necessary, rather than have a war with his banker.
Beyond all that, China doesn't need to invade Japan, only bomb it into submission. I seriously doubt China wants to annex Japan, just give them some serious payback while asserting total control of the China Sea.
How many countries in the West can AFFORD to stop trading with China, not the least of whom is the USA? How many can afford trade disruption in the China Sea for months or years? How many of those same countries can afford for the US government to go bankrupt, based on China dumping US debt, causing a worldwide debt & currency crisis?
How many Western leaders do we have that are willing to do the right & honorable thing, no matter the cost?
Bear in mind that once the US & China exchange fire, the ENTIRETY of the USA becomes an instant & tempting target. Just one Chinese nuke or even a few conventional warheads landing in the USA would throw this country into panic, chaos, & anarchy. How many would venture into Manhattan, & a dozen other major cities to live & work, vs. how many would be leaving in droves for lesser targets? China's vulnerability in this regard, being essentially a dictatorship, is much less, nor is massive loss of life as problematic.
In a real shooting war available fuel and food supplies would be directed to the PLAAF and the PLAN. Trade would dry up, meaning factories making cheap consumer goods for export would be shut down. So, now you have a large urban population with no work, no food and no fuel.
I have a pretty good picture of the military posture of both those nations you cite and agree with you as to what they are. Interestingly both have made overtures to the US to reuse bases in their countries (as a deterrent to Chinese expansion.)
BTW, I seriously doubt China would attack Japan beyond a plan to remove their “navy” from the playing field. Japan is no military threat to them and has financially been a disaster since the late 80s. Those islands in the south china sea around which oil is in abundance is the prize China wants more so than even a reunited Taiwan IMO. Someone suggested, not you, that Japan may have nukes...there is no chance in hell they do unless they were supplied by the US and I don’t see that as ever happening.
China holds the cards here, a minimized US pacific presence, regardless of the “lets pivot to the Pacific latest obsurd strategy coming from DC”, and little opposition in the Pacific including Australia means the game rules are set by them, not the US, not SEATO, not the UN nor Japan. Hopefully they use constraint rather than muscle. China could live with a loss of 100 million people, the US cringes when someone gets hit by a car.
That may be a big mistake. Japan's culture has always been a very martial one, where death is preferable to losing face.
“They’ve got a score to settle with Japan, and it goes back a bit further than our memory.”
More recently after WWII, the Chinese wanted to kill every male over the age of 10, turn the rest of the male children into eunuchs, take all remaining Japanese as slave labor, take all the females and sterilize them then use them as prostitutes.
If you think that meant the total annihilation and humiliation of the Japanese, you’d be right.
And that was just for the millions of Chinese the Japanese killed during WWII.
Yes, it is less true today.
I think the Chinese leadership does in fact fear it’s people. Their people are getting way ahead of their ability to control them.
If you, were a tried and true communist, and you started losing control of your populace, how would you restore your authority?
Economics be damned. That’s not important right now.
First order of business would be complete isolation from the outside world. The protests and crackdown never happened if no one sees them.
This could be a tipping point.
Can the Chinese leaders put the genie back in the bottle?
If they don’t, they will have presided over their own demise.
For the hard liners it becomes a test of their mettle. A test of their willingness to do whatever it takes to maintain the supremacy of the state.
Remember the video of Saddam Hussein calling out “Traitors” to be executed? Recall how quickly he found support.
The linked article mostly talks about artillery and tanks, both of which would we worthless against Japan.
The Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force is quite capable of defeating the PLAN in a straight-up fight, without help from anyone else. Across the whole of their force, their level of technology is better and they're certainly better-trained. There's a high danger of a VERY embarrassing defeat for the Chinese in any conflict at any level.
Don't be fooled by the name; the MSDF is probably the second-most powerful navy in the world right now.
This. While the Japanese might lack the ability to project power across the globe like the British, French, and Russian navies, on a more local level, the Japanese Navy is an very powerful force.
I’m a bit skeptical that what’s in this report indicates to the possibility of China attacking Japan. What use are multi-mile long columns of tanks and artillery in what would be a purely naval conflict? You aren’t going to land those sorts of forces on the miserable little rocks that are the Senkakus.
I don't know what China has in mind, but it wouldn't take much to land a battalion of Chinese marines. I think some aircraft from the mainland have the combat radius to reach the islands. Chinese subs and surface ships could form a cordon around the landing force. I don't know if there is enough flat land to build an airstrip, maybe that's what all the "survey ships" are doing there. Land the marines, build a strip, base some fighters, and its all over.
The question is, what will the US do. The US is treaty bound to support the Japanese claim on these islands, not that that means anything. So far, all Obama has done is to park the carriers in their home ports for "budgetary reasons".
Any war between Japan and China would be the results of misadventure rather than planing. China would see a short war with Japan over some Islands as a way to unify her people and show herself as a “great power”. A few battles at sea where they would use drones and rockets and subs, maybe an invasion of the Disputed Islands. North Korea would neutralize South Korea. Japan still recovering from an Earthquake and tidal wave—a single high energy burst high above Tokyo will kill their computers. A few merchant ships might go down, but China could get a cease-fire at the UN—Obama could broker a deal—get a second Peace prize and all would be well. The East is Red!