My money is on (in this order):
I concur with Scola. The Cardinals will follow tradition and select an Italian.
He was appointed Archbishop of Milan by Benedict on 28 June 2011.
He had previously served as Patriarch of Venice since 2002. He was elevated to the cardinalate in 2003.
He has the combination of proximity to the Vatican, Pastoral experience, Theological knowledge and reasonable age ( 71 years old ).