Skip to comments.M5.1 - 24km ENE of Sungjibaegam, North Korea (Probable Nuke Test)
Posted on 02/11/2013 7:26:05 PM PST by Strategerist
2013-02-12 02:57:51 UTC 2013-02-12 11:57:51 UTC+09:00 at epicenter 2013-02-11 21:57:51 UTC-05:00 system time Location
41.299°N 129.081°E depth=1.0km (0.6mi)
24km (15mi) ENE of Sungjibaegam, North Korea 34km (21mi) WNW of Hau-ri, North Korea 42km (26mi) NNW of Kilju, North Korea 51km (32mi) WSW of Hoemul-li, North Korea 378km (235mi) NE of Pyongyang, North Korea Related Links
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No rose colored glasses, here, but it’s true that 10 years ago they tried to fake us out by blowing up an other-worldly amount of conventional explosions in order to try to fake it.
My gut instinct this time, however, is that it’s real....
NORKS are starving to death, but pop nukes. Iran is moving rapidly toward that.
AND Obozo wants to reduce our stockpile of weapons to 900-300?, ultimately to Zero.
You can see the disconnect here.
Obozo is doing his best to utterly destroy the US.
This area of North Korea has almost no natural earthquakes, depth 1 km.
At a magnitude 4.9 this would be twice as strong as their last test, magnitude probably 4-8 kilotons based on a standard magnitude-yield relationship.
The magnitude may be revised in the next few hours.
Disarm Americans, while rapidly building up DHS...
Disarm the USA, all while DPRK arms to the teeth...
The 2006 test, while low magnitude, was a legitimate test; fission products were detected.
The larger 2009 test was well sealed, but at 2-6 kilotons it would be a truly enormous amount of conventional explosives; there’s no evidence it wasn’t a real test.
Remember Obama talking about all those “small” Countries that weren’t a threat to the United States, while he laughed?
I’m irritated they didn’t do it during the State of the Union.
There’s some indication they may do two tests, so there’s still hope.
One of the difficulties in making nuclear weapons is keeping them from blowing themselves apart prematurely. I’ve always suspected that that’s where they failed.
“quake” collocated at the Punggye-ri Test Facility (41.278, 129.087) . It was a test!!!!!!!!!!!!!
” Ive always suspected that thats where they failed.”
To much Pu240 in the alloy.
My gut says it’s another fake, with lots of H.E.
There’s no evidence either of their tests were fakes.
Thank god North Korea is peaceful or I’d be worried. :)
no public evidence....
Anyway, EMSC after seismologist review puts it at 5.0; so that’s at least 5 kilotons, possibly as many as 9 or 10 kilotons.
If it was a fake it would be by far the largest deliberate conventional explosion ever (only one larger would be the explosion of the Soviet Moon rocket).
It would almost be easier to build a nuke than fake something this big.
This is only a tad stronger than 2009. Does South Korea and Japan provide North Korea with nitrate fertilizer? You think maybe they’re taking this free fertilizer, stuffing it in a deep tunnel and lighting it up?
There never is any radionuclides released until way after the fact...as if someone forgot to let them go.
I thought the latest head-fake by N. Koreans would last a little longer. I figure they would do it this weekend or even after Chia Head’s birthday. As it turns out, the Fat Boy did not waste time.:-)
2013/02/12 12:48 KST
(URGENT) N. Korea notifies U.S., China of nuclear test plans a day earlier: S. Korean official
2013/02/12 13:04 KST
(URGENT) U.N. Security Council to hold emergency meeting at 11:00 p.m. (New York time)
Yes, but between this news and the Pope’s news, Obama will get less attention than normal.
USGS just revised the magnitude upward to 5.1.
At minimum 7 kilotons, could be upwards of 15 kilotons.
It’s highly possible that they’ve matched the Hiroshima bomb.
Well, the gun-type is going to be the easiest to make, so it’s the one you’d expect them to duplicate.
anyone have a guess as to size and weight?
Using the formula developed by Wallace in estimating the Pokhran tests, I’m coming out with a yield between 10-15kt @ 5.2 magnitude.
Will need satellite imaging of the size of the sunken crater to refine my calculations.
Are you asking me if the actual device is now small enough to be placed on top of a rocket and launched?
I don’t know. It depends on how powerful the engines for their rockets are.
I’m guessing that they have a nuclear device about the size, weight, and yield of Little Boy. So, that’s, what? About 10,000 lbs and maybe a 15 kiloton yield.
PS - Sorry for the late response. I was using the laptop last night and hate the small keyboard for typing. Fired up “The Monster” this morning to respond to you.
My guess is that the Norks just entered the nuclear club.
I'm guessing the Persians will join soon too.
And 0bama is disarming us...
We do live in interesting times.
This will be John F’n Kerry’s first real moment as SoS, and I think he’s a man who’s up for this challenge.
Aw hell, I couldn’t even type it with a straight face...
I’m sure the crack national security team is preparing a comprehensive response to the NoKo threat.....
I don’t know if 15KT at 1KM DOB would produce a large enough cavity for a subsidence crater to form.
Why do those headlines leave out South Korea, anyway?
Are they not part of this story? :p
Name: Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang Province, China
Location: 44.62 N, 129.59 E
Code: IC.HIA Name: Hailar, Neimenggu Autonomous Region, China Location: 49.27 N, 119.74 E
Good P impulse, and the P-S time looks good for the distance...
Hulun Buir 1, Inner Mongolia, China.
The initial reports of the seismic event occurring 1km underground were erroneous. I knew that the 1km figure couldn’t be right when I first heard about it. So, last night, I called up one of my geologist buddies and asked him about it. He looked at his data and calculated it at less than a 10th of a kilometer underground.
So, I’m fairly confident there’s going to be a nice, lovely subsidence crater for me to measure once the satellite imaging comes out.
Thanks! But, I haven't been able to locate that station. Got a link?
Most of the stations in the region were inoperative ("flat-lined") at the (arrival) time of the event.
And, most of the operating stations that I made "grabs" of earlier... now have all data -- beginning at the AT of the event -- "scrubbed" (flatlined).
NO cheers, unfortunately.