I didn’t even know about this tax. Over at Instapundit, Glenn Reynolds posted this:
“Meanwhile, my former colleague Colleen Medill, an ERISA expert, writes:
I dont know if you will see this in your volume of email, but you might.
I am deeply into studying the impact of Obamacare on employers, and I have been communicating with highly sophisticated ERISA lawyers who are advising employers, from Fortune 50 companies to small firms under 50 employees, on whether to keep or drop or modify their employer group health plans.
It has become very clear to everyone involved who is analytical and not ideological that the rational strategy, for both large and small firms, is to cease providing health care insurance to employees.
No company wants to admit that they are considering eliminating health insurance as an option, or be the first one to drop their health insurance plan, but once a competitor does so, the preference cascade will begin. The clear sentiment is We will not be the first one to drop our health insurance plan, but we would be a close second.
The coming preference cascade for employer group health plans is what the Democrats fear the most, because Obamacare was sold to the masses as if you like your health insurance plan, you can keep it.
The people who really know the law, and who have been following the avalanche of regulations, have already figured this out. It will take a while for this specialized knowledge to seep downward, because right now only $800+ an hour ERISA attorneys and the most sophisticated HR people understand how Obamacare really works.
My guess? Companies will come up with 'Concierge Health Services' for their elite management teams - and their families. The best doctors will move into this type of private practice - fewer patients, better hours, and malpractice insurance paid by the employer.
And the middle class? They'll be moved into an expensive form of medicaid - with marginal medical care. Few doctors will want to treat the masses for government level reinbursements - so meidical standards will be lowered. Your future 'doctor' might be a minority (with a job preference) two years of college and a person who resents the hell out of having to deal with you. If you object - or don't like how you're being treated - you'll go to the back of the line. Maybe an additional 6 months of living in pain before being treated.
But, like with modern day 'disability' - some special ones will get the pass - and others will wait. The chosen ones will have an 'in' with those people who decide - - and sadly - being a conservative - you and your family will NOT be part of the chosen.
We must fight this now... while we still can...
This was was a story I believe in USA Today a year and a half ago that unfortunately didn’t get much traction in the heat of the campaign. For ATT&T to keep benefits with all the known mandates and fines would mean a 1+ dollar annual expense. To pay the fine and give every employee a $2,000 raise to buy their own on the exchanges, less than 300 million dollars to 500 million dollars. It isn’t necessary to understand the law from A to Z to appreciate that it will be much easier for individuals to pay the fine, or just sandbag somehow through some loophole etc. until they are actually sick.