Skip to comments.Oscars predictions: Argo Worthy, but Zero Dark Thirty more thrilling
Posted on 02/22/2013 11:15:51 PM PST by L.A.Justice
The nominees: Argo, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Amour, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Will win: Argo, which has overtaken Lincoln as the favourite and been sweeping up the hardware BAFTA (the British Academy awards), the Golden Globes, the Producers Guild, Screen Actors Guild and more. Its a worthy choice: a smart entertainment about the 1980 Iran hostage crisis that combines high tension with a hilarious portrait of Hollywood insiders who helped plan the escape. Its also surprisingly sophisticated about the politics of the region.
Should win: Zero Dark Thirty is a darkly propulsive combination of storytelling and journalism that (like Argo) re-creates history, but with a thrilling immediacy.
The debate over the films depiction of torture has destroyed its chances to win, but it provides an unmatched record of the shaky morality, official obsession and relentless detective work of one of our eras defining moments: the hunt for Osama bin Laden.
The nominees: Michael Haneke (Amour); Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild); Ang Lee (Life of Pi); Steven Spielberg (Lincoln); David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook.)
Will win: In the absence of Argos Ben Affleck and Zero Dark Thirtys Kathryn Bigelow, Steven Spielberg is likely to pick up his third Oscar (after Schindlers List and Saving Private Ryan). Lincoln is magisterial rather than thrilling, but it is made with considerable craftsmanship, and it tells a story that for all its realpolitik underpinnings elevates an American icon. A Spielberg Oscar will be the consolation prize for not winning best picture.
Should win: Austrian director Michael Haneke is known for his sly, often cruel provocations, but Amour shows a tender side in its story of an elderly couple facing the end of their lives together. Its brilliantly composed, and the sensitivity fades into a disturbing message that is a work of dark genius.
he nominees: Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook); Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln); Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables); Joaquin Phoenix (The Master); Denzel Washington (Flight).
Will win: Day-Lewis has been favoured since the day Lincoln opened, and hes the closest thing to a shoo-in. It would be his third Oscar (after My Left Foot and There Will Be Blood). A meticulous artist, Day-Lewis finds the nuances in the physical appearance of Lincoln and then goes the extra step, replicating his accent and his clever folksiness.
Its the sort of thing that Hollywood loves playing a real-life person is an even better road to Oscar than playing someone with a disability and Day-Lewis does it both quietly and richly, finding the humanity, the anger and the subtle political machinations in this complicated man. Also, whos going to vote against Abraham Lincoln?
Should win: Day-Lewis, although there is an argument for Phoenix, who transforms himself both physically and emotionally into the complex acolyte in The Master.
The nominees: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty); Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook); Emmanuelle Riva (Amour); Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild); Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
Will win: Jennifer Lawrence is picking up most of the pre-Oscar awards, and the momentum should carry her to the big one. She adds a jolt of sexy exuberance to Silver Linings Playbook as a troubled widow who latches on to Bradley Cooper, even though her history as a promiscuous woman who has lost control of her life is hard to buy from such an innocent-looking ingenue. But Lawrence is a star on the rise, and Oscar loves a sense of discovery.
Should win: I have a soft spot for youngest-ever nominee Quvenzhane Wallis, 9, but the honours should go to oldest-ever nominee Emmanuelle Riva, 85. In Amour, she plays an elderly woman who has a stroke and slowly fades into incontinence, depression and death. Its a rich and textured turn that finds the shock of uncomfortable truth in every detail.
Best supporting actor
The nominees: Alan Arkin (Argo); Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook); Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master); Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln); Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained).
Will win: Robert De Niro was once the greatest Hollywood screen actor. Hes slipped since then the Fockers had something to do with that but hes back in Silver Linings Playbook with a sly performance as an angry, obsessive football fan.
Its not his best work, but its his first nomination in 21 years, and De Niro has been taking part in a huge media push: He seems to care again. An Oscar would be a tribute to the lion in winter.
Should win: Tommy Lee Jones stole every scene as grumpy Congressman Thaddeus Stevens in Lincoln. His sense of command not to mention his sense of crankiness has never been put to better use.
Best supporting actress
The nominees: Amy Adams (The Master); Sally Field (Lincoln); Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables); Helen Hunt (The Sessions); Jackie Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook.)
Will win: Anne Hathaway is the favourite for her heart-wrenching performance as Fantine, the factory worker-turned-prostitute in Les Miserables.
Its heart-wrenching in the biggest way possible: Hathaway gets to huddle in filthy misery and sing I Dreamed A Dream, a song that has come to define the sentimental yearning of the tragic outsider.
Shes a small part of an epic mosaic, but the emotions not to mention the fact that she can sing! she can really sing! should carry her through.
Should win: Hathaway, although there should be a special award for the bravery of Helen Hunt, who appears in the altogether as a sex surrogate in The Sessions.
ARgo and Lincoln.
The rest suck....
I like to watch DVDs at home from time to time, and rarely make it into a theater. I haven’t seen a single nominated film this year, but still found this article fascinating as hell:
With my 80” screen and Bose surround system I love watching action flicks and hell, just anything flick ...
Trying to sell the boss on a 100” screen.
Prolly never happen but...It’d be Kewel...
The only one I’ve seen was “Life of Pi.” I definitely didn’t think it was worthy of Best Picture nomination.
The wife and I haven’t watched the academy awards ever. I haven’t seen it for more than forty years. We haven’t seen a movie at a movie theater in ten years. We watch maybe four or five movies a year and most of those are foreign films on the tube. While I will probably watch Zerodark30 when it’s available on my movie channels, I refuse to watch “Lincoln” or anything else where Tony Kushner is involved. I didn’t see “Titanic” when everybody else was gushing about how great it was, and my world didn’t come to an end.
Zero is a truly excellent movie. I just wish there had been more - well , even some - outcry when Nancy Pelosi and a couple of other Democrats injected themselves into the process. It was overt political pressure, and it did manage to stop the director from being considered for best director. The left hates Zero Dark Thirty.
In the absence of Argos Ben Affleck and Zero Dark Thirtys Kathryn Bigelow, Steven Spielberg is likely to pick up his third Oscar
Spielberg does not deserve it, but the two that do are not nominated. How lucky for him.
ARGO was a good movie, but it was horrible and distorting history to the extreme
Zero dark thirty is a good fiction movie. Bin Ladins favorite. He’ll be watching the oscars
Argo is a good movie but I am annoyed that they chose to fictionalize the airport sequence to add an non-existent Revolutionary Guards chase and worst of all, added a voice-over by Jimmy Carter during the credits. If I never hear that idiot's voice again, it'll be too soon.
Maybe, you’ll be watchin’ da Oscar wid ‘em. Ya know, dat Bin gone fella.
Yeah, but it has sure re-vised history. Ain’t that what counts, sir?
Will watch - The Second Doctor special on BBC America.
152”s??? I’m gonna have to buy a stadium to live in.
The tv weighs 1,272 pounds and uses 3700 watts of electricity. They have smaller models of 103”, 85” and a “dinky” 65” model.
That’s gonna cost a couple grand to operate.
I think I’ll build a cave to house it....